The Bagel23/X Marks the Spot Cellar of Exquisitely Aged Content

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There is no darn question that Nelson will win, but definitely not with margins that wide! It will probably be 53% to 45%.

Oof.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Moore may give Doug Jones a chance...

Not in that inbred state.

Oh the things I would find out...

[IceSpear]

https://www.electionprojection.com/governor-elections.php

IceSpear will be very butthurt about this map. "How dare Oklahoma go D while Oregon and Nevada are R! Muh "all polling before October is trash"! Muh racist hicks!"

[IceSpear]

Donna Shalala should be triaged because she'd win easily even if she had no campaign whatsoever.

Just like Senator Roy Moore? But this is from the guy who thinks Randy Bryce is 100% DOA and will lose by 15 points.

[Hammy]

Some Nevada here.

Heller.

As I’ve said all along.

But I was called a joke for it..

Heller is a Mormon right? Nevada is close to Utah, where a lot of Mormons live, so Heller probably wins lol

[Politician]

Oof...

When McSally wins by five in the most predictable case of Atlas jumping the gun on a red state turning purple ever, feel free to quote this post.

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

[Politician]

Also, January is over now, and Cochran is still in the Senate, so apparently the idea of him resigning was fake news. So I removed the tentative rating for MS-Special.

[Vespucci]

Heitkamp (who is underrated on this forum, she's more likely to win than Scott, for god's sake)

This post is so Atlas. Please explain how a Democrat in a crimson red state who is consistently trailing by double digits is more likely to win than a Republican who has a small to moderate sized deficit in a purple state.

Scott is an overrated candidate, IMHO, and he has to run alongside DeSantis. I'll admit that the post was an overreaction, but it's ridiculous that everyone calls Heitkamp DOA when the race is lean to likely R and FL a tossup when it is lean to likely D.

Yikes.
(Clarence Thomas is me, btw)

[Politician]

With an incumbent running, this [TX-32] is even more safe than GA-6.  The same goes for Culberson and any of the other shockingly-close-in-2016 Texas districts.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

[IceSpear]

Oklahoma is the new Alabunga, and this sad excuse for a meme will end the same way.

[IceSpear]

This entire thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299336.0

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sinema is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.

Womp womp. Also in before this dude rebuttals by saying that McSally won the vote before “the fraud”.

[IceSpear]

On WI-01:

Lean D

[Politician]

Comstock’s race isn’t lean R but it’s not lean D either. She’s a strong incumbent in a tough district in a tough year with a strong challenger. That’s usually the recipe for a tossup that break against the presidential party near the end of the cycle, though less often than you’d think. Probably 40% chance she wins as of now.

[IceSpear]

Barbara Comstock, Pearl Kim (great Republican candidate in the new Delaware county district in Pennsylvania), Erik Paulsen, Matt Chrin, Mimi Walters, Young Kim, Rocky Chavez, Dino Rossi, Kevin Yoder, Rod Blum, and I guess Paul Davis and Anthony Brindisi.

Most overrated: Jennifer Wexton, Mikie Sherrill, Jeff Van Drew, Donna Shalala.

LMAO. Literally a 100% track record of being wrong if Brindisi and Kim lose. That's actually very impressive.

[IceSpear]

More from that thread:

Randy Bryce is underrated.

Comstock's race is Lean R right now. Trump popularity rising in NOVA compared to Nov 2017 - Northam would not have won Loudoun by 20 points if the election were held today.

[Xing]

Lots of gems in this thread, but Seriously? ended up 0 for 3.

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Normally I find threads like this passive-aggressive and bad, but this one was too hilarious to pass up considering it was posted three days after election night.

Polis's 8-point D victory in a D+7 year is not really that impressive for Colorado, honestly.

Polis's lead is 10.5%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is my dream map for several reasons.  The first reason is obvious.  The second is that I can see no reason why this wouldn't benefit my party.  You basically just split up every state, except Texas, that is reliably Democratic.

[Skunk]

Barbara Comstock, Pearl Kim (great Republican candidate in the new Delaware county district in Pennsylvania), Erik Paulsen, Matt Chrin, Mimi Walters, Young Kim, Rocky Chavez, Dino Rossi, Kevin Yoder, Rod Blum, and I guess Paul Davis and Anthony Brindisi.

Most overrated: Jennifer Wexton, Mikie Sherrill, Jeff Van Drew, Donna Shalala.

LMAO. Literally a 100% track record of being wrong if Brindisi and Kim lose. That's actually very impressive.

I mean, he was right about Jeff Van Drew being overrated I guess?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

2018 is obviously not going to be a "Democratic wave year". The issue in 2010 or 2014 was not that people massively turned out against an unpopular Democratic administration, the issue was that Democrats simply didn't turn out at all and Republicans did. That's not likely to change in 2018. McCaskill is still in deep trouble, and so are Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly, etc...

Wow, nice job seeing the trend for those Senate races 2 yrs ahead David B!

[Atlas Force]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

Was just about to post this. "New Ileana Ros-Lehtinen" my butt.

[Atlas Force]

I was listening to the NPR show Left Right and Center and they had two experienced Orange County politicos on to discuss the races and both the Republican and Gustavo Arellano thought that Dems would probably only pick up one Orange County district--very pessimistic.

In any case, I think Dems pick up three out of four...

CA49 - Likely Dem - An easy win for Levin. This district is changing fast and Levin's a good candidate who is able to get cross-over support in the most GOP part of the district...

CA45 - Leans Dem - Mimi Waters had been seen as a relatively strong incumbent but she's made some gaffes. Meanwhile, Katie Porter isn't a perfect candidate. But I think the district dynamics here are just too much for Republicans to overcome.

Irvine and Tustin provide a solid blue base and feature exactly the suburban moderate type voters that Trump has had the most trouble with. Moreover, while there is a high Asian-American population in the district, the immigrant community in Irvine is more educated and likely includes more American-born Asian-Americans than CD39 or CD48. That will result in turnout dynamics and ideology that more closely aligns the communities in the district with white liberals.

Polling shows that Porter has a slight lead here and I believe it.

CA48 - Slight Lean Dem - Dana Rohrabacher is a mess and I think Harley Rouda has done pretty well. But we should not underestimate the extreme Republican-ness of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach Republicans aren't generally Trump fans but do they want Nancy Pelosi to run congress? Trump/Rohrabacher are perfect for the Republican politics of Huntington Beach which is known to have more of a racist/jingoist Republicanism that prefers the beach and bar scene to the country club where Trump--even as a country club owner--may still be considered tacky.

That said, there are strong Dem areas--mainly Laguna Beach/Aliso Viejo and Costa Mesa but low Latino turnout in Costa Mesa can be killer.

I'm surprised by the polling that shows a tie but hoping to see some growth from Rouda next month.

CA39 - Slight Lean Rep - What a mess. Kim is a good candidate although i don't think she's the rock star she's been made out to be. It's just that Cisneros is a disaster. Plus the district dynamics are tough. Dems rely on strong turnout from Latinos and Asian-Americans. The Asian-American vote in this district, meanwhile, is heavily Chinese (LA County) and Korean (Orange County).

The Chinese vote is quite insular and the community in the district includes many relatively new immigrants. Unlike in Monterey Park--where there's a strong Judy-Chu-run Chinese-American Democratic machine, the Republicans have historically had stronger ties to the Chinese vote in Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar. Sen. Ling Ling Chang, Mei Mei Huff, and several past and present Walnut city council members... Of course, Young Kim being Korean along with State Assemblyman Choi also helps.

The white voters in the district, meanwhile, in Fullerton, Brea, and Yorba Linda tend to include more Trumpian tea-party types than you might find in CA45 or CA49. Unless Cisneros can figure out how to get support from Chinese-Americans, he's going to be sunk.

Irvine and Tustin aren't a solid blue base. They have slim Democratic voter registration advantages.  Lake Forest and Mission Viejo both have strong Republican voter registration edges. CA-45 will be hard for a Democrat to win. Costa Mesa and Aliso Viejo aren't strong Democratic areas they both have a Republican voter registration edge. You just explained why CA-48 will be hard to win, but then you're surprised that the latest poll is a tie, so why do you have it as Lean D. If any other Republican was running in CA-48 they would easily win. Huntington Beach and Newport Beach might just be too Republican for Rouda to win this district. It's tossup because of Rohrabacher.

With that said I agree that CA-39 is lean R and CA-49 is Likely D