2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Latino Decisions is already discredited, they claimed Trump only won 15% of the Hispanic vote in 2016, which by their own polling he is doing 40% better than that now. But our own reagente's county map calculations suggest the 2016 number is closer to 26%, and exit polls had 34%. And yes, Florida Hispanics will save the GOP. The Republicans got the golden ticket with DeSantis/Nunez while Gillum/King is the other side.

LOL

[Ebsy]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/7915/3616/8320/LD-NALEO_2018_tracker_-_Week_1.pdf

Regardless of what Beet might think, Latino Decisions has Democrats leading 70-22 among Likely Latino General election voters.

[ON Progressive]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit poll always overestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

[Beet]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

[ON Progressive]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

No it doesn't. Their poll numbers are actually backed up by actual precinct data.

The CNN exit poll has Trump improving among Latinos, which makes zero sense considering many Cuban majority state house seats in Florida saw massive Democratic swings from 2012 to 2016, for example.

[Beet]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

No it doesn't. Their poll numbers are actually backed up by actual precinct data.

That's a lie, that has already been debunked.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The exit poll always overestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

Because exit polls use stratified sampling and don't include heavily Latino precincts typically, and the Latinos in those tend to be more Dem than ones in less heavily Latino precincts.

[ON Progressive]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

No it doesn't. Their poll numbers are actually backed up by actual precinct data.

That's a lie, that has already been debunked.

That's county-level data, not precinct level data. Also, the only data shown in that article are 6 rural Texas counties, which isn't an accurate way to determine how Latinos voted.

There are 47 million Latino/Hispanic citizens according to the USCB, so assuming the combined vote in this six counties were also 93.6% Hispanic (that's the # I got when I averaged the Hispanic % of those counties), that's about 84,978 people. It's probably less than that, given that the CVAP and thus the voting rolls are whiter than the total population in practically every part of the country.

In other words, 0.0018% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Trump overperformed with Latinos/Hispanics. /s

[Beet]

The exit poll always overestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

Because exit polls use stratified sampling and don't include heavily Latino precincts typically, and the Latinos in those tend to be more Dem than ones in less heavily Latino precincts.

Latino Decisions oversamples heavily populated areas where Democrats do well in general; the Democrats' higher support in urban areas is conflated with Hispanic support.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1037803387163734017

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1037803387163734017

Oh jeez, watching these polls being done is going to be like a quasi election night every single night...

[Beet]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

No it doesn't. Their poll numbers are actually backed up by actual precinct data.

That's a lie, that has already been debunked.

That's county-level data, not precinct level data. Also, the only data shown in that article are 6 rural Texas counties, which isn't an accurate way to determine how Latinos voted.

There are 47 million Latino/Hispanic citizens according to the USCB, so assuming the combined vote in this six counties were also 93.6% Hispanic (that's the # I got when I averaged the Hispanic % of those counties), that's about 84,978 people. It's probably less than that, given that the CVAP and thus the voting rolls are whiter than the total population in practically every part of the country.

In other words, 0.0018% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Trump overperformed with Latinos/Hispanics. /s

Well it's 84,978 people versus the 250 people sampled the Latino Decisions poll. In other words, .000005% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Hispanics are in the tank for Democrats. /s

Also, according to the article: "There are 24 U.S. counties in which Latinos made up at least three-quarters of the voting-age population in 2015; Clinton’s margin of victory was smaller than Obama’s in 18 of them, by an average of nearly 10 percentage points."

A lot more than six counties.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/upshot/midterms-2018-polls-live.html

[ON Progressive]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

No it doesn't. Their poll numbers are actually backed up by actual precinct data.

That's a lie, that has already been debunked.

That's county-level data, not precinct level data. Also, the only data shown in that article are 6 rural Texas counties, which isn't an accurate way to determine how Latinos voted.

There are 47 million Latino/Hispanic citizens according to the USCB, so assuming the combined vote in this six counties were also 93.6% Hispanic (that's the # I got when I averaged the Hispanic % of those counties), that's about 84,978 people. It's probably less than that, given that the CVAP and thus the voting rolls are whiter than the total population in practically every part of the country.

In other words, 0.0018% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Trump overperformed with Latinos/Hispanics. /s

Well it's 84,978 people versus the 250 people sampled the Latino Decisions poll. In other words, .000005% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Hispanics are in the tank for Democrats. /s

Latino Decisions polled 5600 people in their exit poll, not 250.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/upshot/midterms-2018-polls-live.html

It’s going down for real (cues saxophone music).

[john cage bubblegum]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1037803387163734017

Oh jeez, watching these polls being done is going to be like a quasi election night every single night...

Whoa.  It's going to be interesting tonight to see exactly how they're going to relay this information.  I'm not sure yet if this is a good idea or not.

[Beet]

According to the CNN exit poll for the national house race in 2014, the GOP won 36% of the hispanic vote, so this is a major erosion in their latino support.

The exit Latino Decisions poll always overunderestimates Latino GOP support by a ton for some reason.

No it doesn't. Their poll numbers are actually backed up by actual precinct data.

That's a lie, that has already been debunked.

That's county-level data, not precinct level data. Also, the only data shown in that article are 6 rural Texas counties, which isn't an accurate way to determine how Latinos voted.

There are 47 million Latino/Hispanic citizens according to the USCB, so assuming the combined vote in this six counties were also 93.6% Hispanic (that's the # I got when I averaged the Hispanic % of those counties), that's about 84,978 people. It's probably less than that, given that the CVAP and thus the voting rolls are whiter than the total population in practically every part of the country.

In other words, 0.0018% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Trump overperformed with Latinos/Hispanics. /s

Well it's 84,978 people versus the 250 people sampled the Latino Decisions poll. In other words, .000005% of the Latino/Hispanic population! What a great sample to make the assumption that Hispanics are in the tank for Democrats. /s

Latino Decisions polled 5600 people in their exit poll, not 250.

And the CNN exit poll had 24,500 people. But I'm talking about the Latino Decisions poll that was posted earlier in this thread. By the way, Latino Decisions is run by two Hillary Clinton campaign officials. Anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty can see their agenda.

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1037805175845597184

[ON Progressive]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1037805175845597184

Too bad we have to get an Iowa poll from a bad firm like Emerson instead of a decent one

[Arkansas Yankee]

Since not all RVs will vote, it is now time for all pollsters to rotate to LV POLLS.  I know they were traumatized in 2016.  But now is the time.  If they want to do different scenarios, that will be fine.  But now is the time to get off the pot.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/upshot/midterms-2018-polls-live.html

Cohn needs a haircut.

[136or142]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1037805175845597184

They're going to broadcast every person they survey?  That sounds as exciting as something that isn't very exciting.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

When can we expect data from Cohn's experiment?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

When can we expect data from Cohn's experiment?

[Ebsy]

"tonight"