2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Virginiá]

What's the link to that poll^?

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Navigator-August-Tracker-Topline-F8.14.18.pdf

I think its this one.

thanks!

[Lognog]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

Hilarious that this gets buried. I guess any poll that contradicts the idea of Democrats gaining every marginally competitive seat gets glossed over.

He posted the poll in one of the most widely read threads on this board.  How is that "buried"?

Well I don't think anyone expected Curbelo to do poorly. He's pretty much the Valadao of Florida

[136or142]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

Hilarious that this gets buried. I guess any poll that contradicts the idea of Democrats gaining every marginally competitive seat gets glossed over.

He posted the poll in one of the most widely read threads on this board.  How is that "buried"?

Well I don't think anyone expected Curbelo to do poorly. He's pretty much the Valadao of Florida

And this poll is the Valadaotion of that.

[wesmoorenerd]

DCCC Poll FL-26

Curbelo: 48%
Mucarsel-Powell: 41%

Hilarious that this gets buried. I guess any poll that contradicts the idea of Democrats gaining every marginally competitive seat gets glossed over.

He posted the poll in one of the most widely read threads on this board.  How is that "buried"?

Well I don't think anyone expected Curbelo to do poorly. He's pretty much the Valadao of Florida

People were too bullish on FL-26 from the get-go. South Florida's just one of those weird regions that loves entrenched, moderate Rs. Curbelo isn't safe but he's definitely a favorite.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

FL-26 is Likely D

[wesmoorenerd]

FL-26 is Likely D

Oh Solid, never change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL-26 is Likely D

Oh Solid, never change.

I like Solid's ratings.  Move them all two places to the right and they're a pretty good indicator.

[YE]

On election night when/if Dems win the House he's gonna be talking about how it was a great night for the GOP since they didn't gain 55 seats.

[IceSpear]

FL-26 is Likely D

Oh Solid, never change.

I like Solid's ratings.  Move them all two places to the right and they're a pretty good indicator.

So the Hawaii Senate race is only lean D?

Anyway, please let's not make Curbelo the next Unbeatable Titan. Having a 7 point lead in a single poll and being under 50% 3 months before the election (and before he even has an official opponent) does not make him inevitable.

[Devout Centrist]

The swings we've gotten from South Florida say otherwise. Plus, it's still several weeks before the Florida primary. Wait until late October and we'll see what happens.

[Zaybay]

FL-26 is Likely D

Oh Solid, never change.

I like Solid's ratings.  Move them all two places to the right and they're a pretty good indicator.

So the Hawaii Senate race is only lean D?

Anyway, please let's not make Curbelo the next Unbeatable Titan. Having a 7 point lead in a single poll and being under 50% 3 months before the election (and before he even has an official opponent) does not make him inevitable.

This concept is so important yet so many pundits and Atlas users ignore it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, July 30 - Aug. 12, 3986 registered voters (change from June).

D: 46 (-2)
R: 39 (-4)

[Tender Branson]

Republicans could win NV-04 (internal Moore Information poll for the NRCC):

41% Steven Horsford (D-Incumbent)
41% Cresent Hardy (R)

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http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-shows-competitive-race-in-nevadas-4th-district

[Politician]

^Likely D, if Hardy isn't even up in his own internal he's probably losing.

[Holmes]

An internal poll of a Nevada congressional district, nice.

[IceSpear]

inb4 the pundits move it to toss up.

[136or142]

https://vhttps://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1030489394300559361

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1030489654569709570

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1030489944912011266

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1030489394300559361

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not bad though I have some reservations about NY-19

[Ebsy]

I saw those polls about a month ago, they were issues polls on net neutrality I believe.

[wesmoorenerd]

That NY-19 number is a bit concerning. I imagine the Dems will definitely need to win that seat if they're winning the House.

[Zaybay]

That NY-19 number is a bit concerning. I imagine the Dems will definitely need to win that seat if they're winning the House.

They dont need it to win the house, but they will need it to have a modest margin in it.

[mencken]

https://imge.com/what-we-do/imge-insights/

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I think the usual rules for internals apply here, so subtract six from the Republican margin.

[BudgieForce]

https://imge.com/what-we-do/imge-insights/

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I think the usual rules for internals apply here, so subtract six from the Republican margin.

What am I supposed to be looking at here?

[Zaybay]

https://imge.com/what-we-do/imge-insights/

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I think the usual rules for internals apply here, so subtract six from the Republican margin.

What am I supposed to be looking at here?

the pollster is basically a R staffer, so its possible that the Rs have an advantage in these poll numbers. But thats just what I get from this description