2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Florida Man for Crime]

So the pundits keep moving races in favor of the Dems like every single time a new poll comes out...have they ever considered that maybe they should start moving some of the races without polls too, because their ratings are clearly way too GOP friendly? I suppose that's too logical.

Yeah, pundits seem to need a mountain of evidence to move a race towards the Dems, but need only one poll to move it to the GOP(looking at you Gonzalez, with the lean R rating for ND, and at you Cook, with the Oregon garbage)

A lot of the prognosticators are too incumbent-friendly because they get leaks/internal polls shared with them from incumbents, from NRCC, and from DCCC, and they want to maintain good relationships with the powers that be. So they are sometimes overly inclined to not move a race against an incumbent unless it is really very clear that the particular race has actually moved against that incumbent.

[Zaybay]

So the pundits keep moving races in favor of the Dems like every single time a new poll comes out...have they ever considered that maybe they should start moving some of the races without polls too, because their ratings are clearly way too GOP friendly? I suppose that's too logical.

Yeah, pundits seem to need a mountain of evidence to move a race towards the Dems, but need only one poll to move it to the GOP(looking at you Gonzalez, with the lean R rating for ND, and at you Cook, with the Oregon garbage)

A lot of the prognosticators are too incumbent-friendly because they get leaks/internal polls shared with them from incumbents, from NRCC, and from DCCC, and they want to maintain good relationships with the powers that be. So they are sometimes overly inclined to not move a race against an incumbent unless it is really very clear that the particular race has actually moved against that incumbent.

But this year has been especially bad. Most prognosticators have such mind boggling ratings for governors, senators, and house members Ive ever seen. And I dont think its why you said it is, after all, it only took one poll for Cook to move McArthur, Ojeda, Brown, and others. I think its because they are over-correcting, and giving the Rs the best possible scenario to save face. They messed up in 2016, and just like after 2006, and 2010, they are over-correcting.

[mencken]

So the pundits keep moving races in favor of the Dems like every single time a new poll comes out...have they ever considered that maybe they should start moving some of the races without polls too, because their ratings are clearly way too GOP friendly? I suppose that's too logical.

If you take the average of Monmouth's House polls (excluding WV-3 since it is such an anomaly), Republicans lose ~3% from Trump 2016 with "potential voters", ~5% with "historical midterm voters", and ~6% with the "Democratic surge". However, these decrease by ~4% each if you only include races with one incumbent running.

So if pundits should use these house polls to read into the tea leaves on unpolled races, I guess they could move all incumbents in districts Trump won by <4% to the tossup column (<8% for open districts) - seems reasonable to me, although I think fewer races would change ratings than you might think.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX-32 Democratic internal poll
Pete Sessions (R) - 47%
Colin Allred (D) - 45%

Trump at 41% approval and Sessions at 38% approval

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democratic-poll-shows-close-race-pete-sessions-seat-texas

Yup, this is competitive stuff.

[Lognog]

TX-32 Democratic internal poll
Pete Sessions (R) - 47%
Colin Allred (D) - 45%

Drumpf at 41% approval and Sessions at 38% approval

I'm still confused as to how he won by a 50 point margin in 2016

Yup, this is competitive stuff.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

TX-32 Democratic internal poll
Pete Sessions (R) - 47%
Colin Allred (D) - 45%

Drumpf at 41% approval and Sessions at 38% approval

I'm still confused as to how he won by a 50 point margin in 2016

Yup, this is competitive stuff.

There was no Democratic candidate in this District in 2016, only him and a Libertarian.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX-32 Democratic internal poll
Pete Sessions (R) - 47%
Colin Allred (D) - 45%

Drumpf at 41% approval and Sessions at 38% approval

I'm still confused as to how he won by a 50 point margin in 2016

Yup, this is competitive stuff.

There was no Democratic candidate in this District in 2016, only him and a Libertarian.

Yeah, that made me so upset. If no dem filed this time (very grateful that we had a wonderful field here), I was going get either my mom or dad to file for the seat as a democrat, cause there was no way on earth I was going to let it go uncontested again. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, August 10-12.  1992 registered voters.

D: 42 (nc)
R: 38 (+2)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Quinnipiac has D+9 (51-42) and CNN has D+11 (52-41)
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2562, https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1029760323954397184

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac has D+9 (51-42) and CNN has D+11 (52-41)
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2562, https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1029760323954397184

CNN:

More Enthusiastic Voters’ Choice for Congress
 
Democrat          54%
Republican        41%

[Yank2133]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

[IceSpear]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

But Atlas told me that Dems would gain at least 200 seats if only Pelosi resigned. When is Atlas EVER wrong?!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Quinnipiac has D+9 (51-42) and CNN has D+11 (52-41)
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2562, https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1029760323954397184

Seems kind of suspect. Dems were only able to shave 6.5 or so points off an R+7 district (Ohio 12th). That suggests a D+6/7 electorate.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Quinnipiac has D+9 (51-42) and CNN has D+11 (52-41)
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2562, https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1029760323954397184

Seems kind of suspect. Dems were only able to shave 6.5 or so points off an R+7 district (Ohio 12th). That suggests a D+6/7 electorate.

Actually, D+13, since you forgot the doubling rule of pvi.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hemoroid is about to have a seizure.

[Virginiá]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

This is what I've been saying for weeks now. Pelosi isn't electoral magic like Republicans think, yet they keep dragging her through the mud thinking it is. They seem to think that just because they wouldn't shut up about her for years during Obama-era midterm blowouts, that somehow it was an effective attack, because surely THAT was the reason they won, and not a recession recovery + unpopular-ish Democrat in the White House!

I don't think Pelosi deserves this kind of hate, but at the same time, since Republican politicians/strategists are too stupid and narrow minded to let go of an ineffective attack, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be a little happy when Pelosi retires, because it means Rs will finally start moving on to some other attack line that isn't incredibly stale.

[Ebsy]

Strangely in 434 districts Nancy Pelosi's name will not appear on the ballot.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

But Atlas told me that Dems would gain at least 200 seats if only Pelosi resigned. When is Atlas EVER wrong?!

[Yank2133]

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Doubtful.

They will just recycle the same attack line on her successor. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Doubtful.

They will just recycle the same attack line on her successor. 

Or they'll escalate: "XXX is even worse than Pelosi!"

[OneJ]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

This is what I've been saying for weeks now. Pelosi isn't electoral magic like Republicans think, yet they keep dragging her through the mud thinking it is. They seem to think that just because they wouldn't shut up about her for years during Obama-era midterm blowouts, that somehow it was an effective attack, because surely THAT was the reason they won, and not a recession recovery + unpopular-ish Democrat in the White House!

I don't think Pelosi deserves this kind of hate, but at the same time, since Republican politicians/strategists are too stupid and narrow minded to let go of an ineffective attack, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be a little happy when Pelosi retires, because it means Rs will finally start moving on to some other attack line that isn't incredibly stale.

Virginia, you’ve done it again.

[Person Man]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

This is what I've been saying for weeks now. Pelosi isn't electoral magic like Republicans think, yet they keep dragging her through the mud thinking it is. They seem to think that just because they wouldn't shut up about her for years during Obama-era midterm blowouts, that somehow it was an effective attack, because surely THAT was the reason they won, and not a recession recovery + unpopular-ish Democrat in the White House!

I don't think Pelosi deserves this kind of hate, but at the same time, since Republican politicians/strategists are too stupid and narrow minded to let go of an ineffective attack, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be a little happy when Pelosi retires, because it means Rs will finally start moving on to some other attack line that isn't incredibly stale.

muh Pelosi just needs to end but it is true that a lot of people who are warming up to the Democrats are in fact not fans of her.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris Interactive, Aug. 12-13, 999 registered voters

D 43 (nc)
R 32 (-4)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That Quinnipac poll has the Dems winning women by only 4 points but Reps winning men by 12...

[Virginiá]

muh Pelosi just needs to end but it is true that a lot of people who are warming up to the Democrats are in fact not fans of her.

Yea that is absolutely true, but since she ranks so low with people's lists of priorities, she doesn't end up factoring that much into their decision. Most of those people rating her as a big factor in their votes are probably Republicans or Republicans masquerading as indies who were never going to vote Democrat anyway, and would probably say any number of liberal boogeymen are a big factor in their votes (Clinton, Obama, etc). What they won't say is that the biggest factor and the only factor that matters in their vote is that the candidate must be a Republican (and a Trump supporter too maybe?). Nothing else matters to them.