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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ - NBC/Marist: Sinema +10/+11/+25 McSally +2 in Primary
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Author Topic: AZ - NBC/Marist: Sinema +10/+11/+25 McSally +2 in Primary  (Read 1852 times)
Devils30
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« Reply #25 on: June 26, 2018, 11:06:01 pm »

McSally is starting to look like Bruce Braley if she wins the primary. Arizona looking like Colorado 2006/Wisconsin 2010/Iowa 2014.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #26 on: June 26, 2018, 11:14:24 pm »

It's Trump's problem with Latinos, that's why TX is coming into play as well, and Rick Scott's dropoff in the polls against Nelson
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: June 27, 2018, 10:20:37 am »

Trump's approval is at -15 in Maricopa County.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: June 27, 2018, 10:31:16 am »

This deserves its own comment...

Sinema is beating McSally in Maricopa County 53-36%



Interestingly enough, the poll shows that WARD does the best amongst all three in the county, losing by only 40-50%

Arpaio, unsurprisingly, loses it 31-61%

That's the race then. Sinema has a base from her house seat in Suburban Maricopa, and plenty of prior name rec in Phoenix over the Tuscon based McSally. If Sinema is over 50 in a lean/tilt R county  that has a majority of the states population, she wins. Period. Even if nearly all the undecideds are Republicans who are pissed with McSally and are voting for Wrad/Arpaio and will come together post-primary, Sinema still probably wins. I definitely think this seat is going to snap right to Lean D in all the professional ratings post-primary.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« Reply #29 on: June 27, 2018, 10:39:27 am »

I would guess a big reason for the GOP's swift collapse in AZ is that unlike other states, the AZGOP coalition is a virtual monoculture, almost entirely based on well-to-do suburban whites/retirees in the Phoenix and Tucson metros. Maricopa County (Phoenix) is 62% of the state's population, and Pima County (Tucson) is another 15%. That leaves less than a quarter of the state's population outside the primary metros, and even in that small portion, much of the population is Hispanics in border areas or Native American reservations. Simply put, if the AZGOP starts bombing with wealthy white suburbanites (as polls and special elections including AZ-08 have indicated they will), there's just nowhere else in the state they can make up those votes from. They're just ed. Compare that to Pennsylvania, where the PAGOP bombed with wealthy white suburbanites in SEPA and Pittsburgh but were able to make that up from the small, blue collar metros like Scranton and the Lehigh Valley and fairly well-populated (at least compared to AZ) rural areas, because PA is not nearly as centralized population-wise as AZ is, and I don't think any other state is. Because of this, a nationwide decline for the GOP with a specific group can be greatly magnified in Arizona, and I think that is what will happen.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #30 on: June 27, 2018, 10:46:38 am »

You also can't ignore Yuma County. It has nearly 200,000 people and swung HARD to the Democrats in 2016 (from 55.5-42.9 Romney to Trump 47.5-46.4).

It'll be basically impossible for the GOP to win AZ if the trends in AZ continue, and it's not just the trends in Maricopa.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #31 on: June 29, 2018, 06:18:29 pm »

You also can't ignore Yuma County. It has nearly 200,000 people and swung HARD to the Democrats in 2016 (from 55.5-42.9 Romney to Trump 47.5-46.4).

It'll be basically impossible for the GOP to win AZ if the trends in AZ continue, and it's not just the trends in Maricopa.

Yuma County is gone for the GOP in the 2018 and 2020 elections and beyond.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #32 on: June 29, 2018, 06:36:31 pm »

You also can't ignore Yuma County. It has nearly 200,000 people and swung HARD to the Democrats in 2016 (from 55.5-42.9 Romney to Trump 47.5-46.4).

It'll be basically impossible for the GOP to win AZ if the trends in AZ continue, and it's not just the trends in Maricopa.

Thatís quite a swing.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #33 on: June 30, 2018, 01:12:18 pm »

Ward is only down 2 in the primary. I think she can do it!
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pppolitics
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« Reply #34 on: June 30, 2018, 06:36:14 pm »

I can't help but think the Democrats' fortunes in the state are being charged by Trump's immigration woes. The state is trending blue faster than we thought, and Trump could be to blame.

It's not even that.

Trump alienated educated whites that kept Arizona red.

There's always a tradeoff.

Trump may have gained the Republicans blue collar whites, but he's losing their educated whites.
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