AZ - NBC/Marist: Sinema +10/+11/+25 McSally +2 in Primary

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema: 48%
Ward: 38%

Sinema: 49%
McSally: 38%

Sinema: 57%
Arpaio: 32%

Dems +7 in Generic Ballot in State

McSally: 30%
Ward: 28%
Arpaio: 21%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_AZ_June%202018.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can't help but think the Democrats' fortunes in the state are being charged by Trump's immigration woes. The state is trending blue faster than we thought, and Trump could be to blame.

[Skye]

Enough polls to call this race Lean D, at least for now.

In fact even closer to Likely D than Tossup. Though I'll wait until after the primary.

[Zaybay]

I can't help but think the Democrats' fortunes in the state are being charged by Trump's immigration woes. The state is trending blue faster than we thought, and Trump could be to blame.

Its probably a "perfect storm" kind of thing. The state has been trending Democratic and was only won by Trump by 4 percentage points. The Bluewave+Sinema's strength+The Teacher's strike+Doug Ducey's low approval's are all combining to form the perfect chance to turn this state blue, not just in 2018, but in 2020 as well

[Gass3268]

Enough polls to call this race Lean D, at least for now.

In fact even closer to Likely D than Tossup. Though I'll wait until after the primary.

Which is why most of the prognosticators have kept it at Toss UP.

[IceSpear]

McSally will certainly close the margin after the primary, the question is by how much. Despite this, Sinema's leads are yuge enough that I'm comfortable calling this lean D for now.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Seems like Arizona is competing with Georgia and Texas on which state will flip blue the fastest

[Devils30]

Generic ballot suggests a D+9-10 environment nationally in both Arizona and Florida.

[Xing]

Seems like Arizona is competing with Georgia and Texas on which state will flip blue the fastest

Arizona will flip decades before Texas, that's not even a question.

Anyway, I look forward to the media forgetting everything McSally said in the primary, painting her as a moderate, and saying that Arizona Republicans boosted their chances enormously by picking such a reasonable, principled, moderate, electable candidate.

[libertpaulian]

If Sinema wins, it would be 30 years after DeConcini won his third term and the very last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Arizona.

Seriously, though, Arizona 2018=Colorado 2006.

[OneJ]

I would've thought the AZ GOP could put forth better candidates than the likes of "moderate" McSally, theorist Ward, and toxic Arpaio who lost his seat by double digits in a GOP state and in a neutral year too.

[IceSpear]

Seems like Arizona is competing with Georgia and Texas on which state will flip blue the fastest

Arizona will flip decades before Texas, that's not even a question.

Anyway, I look forward to the media forgetting everything McSally said in the primary, painting her as a moderate, and saying that Arizona Republicans boosted their chances enormously by picking such a reasonable, principled, moderate, electable candidate.

To be fair, Sinema is even more egregious than McSally on that front. Self-described Prada Socialist to self-described Blue Dog, lol.

[Zaybay]

Seems like Arizona is competing with Georgia and Texas on which state will flip blue the fastest

Arizona will flip decades before Texas, that's not even a question.

Anyway, I look forward to the media forgetting everything McSally said in the primary, painting her as a moderate, and saying that Arizona Republicans boosted their chances enormously by picking such a reasonable, principled, moderate, electable candidate.

To be fair, Sinema is even more egregious than McSally on that front. Self-described Prada Socialist to self-described Blue Dog, lol.

Shes the bizarro Gillibrand, going from left-wing to center. I wonder if she will continue being a bluedog in the senate or if she will reveal her left-wingness once again.

[Politician]

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

What if Joe Arpaio wins in a huge upset in the primary?

[Webnicz]

Those of us in AZ have known that AZ has been competitive for years, but national democrats never gave us the light of day instead they wasted millions in Ohio. Dems spent a fraction here compared to other swing states and AZ was closer than NC

Sinema is a strong candidate, I still want to know about the Ducey election though.

Not shocked that Ward has been polling better/same  against Sinema than McSally has, McSally has gone off the rails and has essentially become a kelli ward herself. It’s one thing to be kelli ward but it’s another to be kelli ward with the backing of McConnell

I think even if the blue wave “dies down” a bit, it will still hit AZ hard, lot of people unsafisfied with GOP leadership here(especially ducey which is why I want to know more about his race)

[IceSpear]

What if Joe Arpaio wins in a huge upset in the primary?

It won't happen, but it would be titanium D.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Arpaio's numbers have flattened and will likely tumble even more by election day when people get the impression he doesn't have a chance.  The primary is McSally v Ward and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if a late break for Ward gets her the nomination.

Regardless, Sinema should win this and I wouldn't be surprised if the Governor's race goes the D's way as well.

It seems like there is very little difference between Ward and McSally these days.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Marist released the numbers officially. They're all the same. We get cross tabs though!

Sinema wins 21% of Republicans against Arpaio

Sinema beats McSally amongst Latinos by a whopping 60-26%

Also against McSally...

Winning White college grads 56-37%

Tied with men at 43%

Winning women 54-34%

Winning whites 44-43%

Sinema winning the suburbs 54-36%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Arizona%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_June%202018.pdf#page=1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This deserves its own comment...

Sinema is beating McSally in Maricopa County 53-36%



Interestingly enough, the poll shows that WARD does the best amongst all three in the county, losing by only 40-50%

Arpaio, unsurprisingly, loses it 31-61%

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

I feel more confident about Arizona than I do about Nevada, and I feel pretty confident about Nevada.

[Dr. Arch]

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

I feel more confident about Arizona than I do about Nevada, and I feel pretty confident about Nevada.

Our Queen is alive!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They keep polling Senate race, no Governor polls in AZ or FL or NV

[libertpaulian]

Let's go Donnelly and Bredesen!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Flake is an unpopular figure and so is Trump with Latinos. That's why FL gov is more competitive than WI gov