CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Valesky goes down!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the benefit of the information above^^^

53 Dem.   51%Rachel May (Progressive)   49%David Valesky* (IDC)   95%

Progressives have orchestrated a large change in these State Senate seats tonight, taking control from 9-0 IDC to 6-3 Progressive.

[Oryxslayer]

Valesky lost

Which puts us at 6/8 Down, 1/8 surviving (and Felder OFC), and one undecided right now. All eyes turn towards Carlucci...

[wesmoorenerd]

With the benefit of the information above^^^

53 Dem.   51%Rachel May (Progressive)   49%David Valesky* (IDC)   95%

Progressives have orchestrated a large change in these State Senate seats tonight, taking control from 9-0 IDC to 6-3 Progressive.

Carlucci hasn't quite won yet. He's probably going to win, but his lead is slipping and there's still 15% out...

[ag]

It looks like today can be interpretted two different ways:

1. Progressives completely failed in the top ballot, with Cuomo and his LG winning. James, while Liberal, has ties to the establishment, and so can be counted as a loss. It seems that the establishment/moderates/whatever you want to call them will be holding onto the top offices of NY.


2. The progressives turned the down ballot into a complete and total rout for the establishment/moderates. 6-7 IDC members have lost to progressives/DSAs and a state senator not even on the radar lost to a DSA member. It seems that NY may have one of the most progressive state legislatures of the Democratic states.

Nah. The better interpretation is that the party discipline has been imposed. The only "establishment moderate" to lose is a single obscure state senator. The IDC members lost not because they were "establishment moderates" but because they were traitors - the opposite of being party establishment.

As for the state legislature, methinks, you do not know how NY State legislature works. Once the leadership is elected, this is all that matters. The governor, for the most part, negotiates with majority leaders in the chambers. Things might have changed a bit since the "three men in the room" was the thing, but do not overestimate that change. Once elected, your "progressives" will not really be a problem at all for the party leadership - unlike the IDC guys they have nowhere to go, they cannot caucus with the Republicans. If Dems get an outright majority in the State Senate, they will be loyal soldiers. 

Cuomo won. Hochul won. Everything is going wonderful for the mainstream of NY Democratic Party.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the benefit of the information above^^^

53 Dem.   51%Rachel May (Progressive)   49%David Valesky* (IDC)   95%

Progressives have orchestrated a large change in these State Senate seats tonight, taking control from 9-0 IDC to 6-3 Progressive.

Carlucci hasn't quite won yet. He's probably going to win, but his lead is slipping and there's still 15% out...

lol

38 Dem.   55%David Carlucci*   45%Julie Goldberg   97%

[NewYorkExpress]

I think it's fair to say that almost the entire IDC losing their seats over caucusing with Republicans for extra perks, pay and power is going to put the fear of god into current and future Democratic lawmakers, at least for a good long while, so probably no more traitor factions.

Nothing scares lawmakers quite like fear of losing their seat

True, though Savino (and of course Felder) will be empowered to continue supporting the Republicans.

Did Savino have an especially pathetic opponent? I'm surprised she won by such a wide margin. Felder isn't surprising, though.

Well Felder is going to do what Felder is going to do, but the rest, I don't think it is a given that they will just support Rs full-time or something. I think it's equally if not more possible that they try and regain the trust of their constituent Democrats so they don't face any more primary opponents, and that involves being model Democrats. Otherwise there is nothing stopping another wave of opponents in 2020 and beyond. And since these are safe D districts, they can't just switch to the Republican Party. They have a big incentive to stop this tomfoolery, regardless of how butthurt they may be over this.

Felder mainly backed the GOPers because that sent more $$ to his district. Since Democrats are very likely to take the NYS after the 2018 elections, he'll switch in order to bring home more bacon.

Felder will continue to caucus with the Republican since his Orthodox Jewish base opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, and supports perks for yeshivas, like Felder, and he won't want to disappoint them by joining a party that does the opposite of all of those things.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In other news, the NY republicans are such a failing party that there isn't even a meaningful way to measure their primary turnout. No contested statewide primary in either June or now, and only one contested US House primary. So the Senate Primary Turnout Map will label it in a new "Unmeasurable" color.

[Zaybay]

It looks like today can be interpretted two different ways:

1. Progressives completely failed in the top ballot, with Cuomo and his LG winning. James, while Liberal, has ties to the establishment, and so can be counted as a loss. It seems that the establishment/moderates/whatever you want to call them will be holding onto the top offices of NY.


2. The progressives turned the down ballot into a complete and total rout for the establishment/moderates. 6-7 IDC members have lost to progressives/DSAs and a state senator not even on the radar lost to a DSA member. It seems that NY may have one of the most progressive state legislatures of the Democratic states.

Nah. The better interpretation is that the party discipline has been imposed. The only "establishment moderate" to lose is a single obscure state senator. The IDC members lost not because they were "establishment moderates" but because they were traitors - the opposite of being party establishment.

As for the state legislature, methinks, you do not know how NY State legislature works. Once the leadership is elected, this is all that matters. The governor, for the most part, negotiates with majority leaders in the chambers. Things might have changed a bit since the "three men in the room" was the thing, but do not overestimate that change. Once elected, your "progressives" will not really be a problem at all for the party leadership - unlike the IDC guys they have nowhere to go, they cannot caucus with the Republicans. If Dems get an outright majority in the State Senate, they will be loyal soldiers. 

Cuomo won. Hochul won. Everything is going wonderful for the mainstream of NY Democratic Party.

I think you have not done your research on when the IDC was created and who they allied with. The leader and creator, who lost today, was one of Cuomo's top allies, and the IDC was kept alive by Cuomo. This was one of the pins he used to keep the Ds in the legislature from overwhelming his veto. Without them, the overall very progressive state legislature has gained power. This doesnt even mention the fact that the ones who won against the IDC were associated with the Left and DSA branch.

I also dont think that you understand the implications of this. The ones who are winning in the state legislature are not party sympathizers, but progressives, and with these victories, its official, the Progressives now outnumber the State Party. With this, they effectively control the agenda, and can write the bills. Unless Cuomo just wants to veto every Progressive bill coming out of the state senate, the progressives definitely won downballot, and the party took some serious hits.

Topballot was a win for the party, but its clear that they really lost downballot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It looks like today can be interpretted two different ways:

1. Progressives completely failed in the top ballot, with Cuomo and his LG winning. James, while Liberal, has ties to the establishment, and so can be counted as a loss. It seems that the establishment/moderates/whatever you want to call them will be holding onto the top offices of NY.


2. The progressives turned the down ballot into a complete and total rout for the establishment/moderates. 6-7 IDC members have lost to progressives/DSAs and a state senator not even on the radar lost to a DSA member. It seems that NY may have one of the most progressive state legislatures of the Democratic states.

Nah. The better interpretation is that the party discipline has been imposed. The only "establishment moderate" to lose is a single obscure state senator. The IDC members lost not because they were "establishment moderates" but because they were traitors - the opposite of being party establishment.

As for the state legislature, methinks, you do not know how NY State legislature works. Once the leadership is elected, this is all that matters. The governor, for the most part, negotiates with majority leaders in the chambers. Things might have changed a bit since the "three men in the room" was the thing, but do not overestimate that change. Once elected, your "progressives" will not really be a problem at all for the party leadership - unlike the IDC guys they have nowhere to go, they cannot caucus with the Republicans. If Dems get an outright majority in the State Senate, they will be loyal soldiers. 

Cuomo won. Hochul won. Everything is going wonderful for the mainstream of NY Democratic Party.

Except for the part where Cuomo actively encouraged Democrats to join the IDC.

[Virginiá]

Felder will continue to caucus with the Republican since his Orthodox Jewish base opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, and supports perks for yeshivas, like Felder, and he won't want to disappoint them by joining a party that does the opposite of all of those things.

He already said he was returning to the Democratic caucus though. He could go back if Republicans flip the chamber again in the future maybe, I suppose, but afaik he is still on track to break from Republicans next session (unless he has since changed his mind).

[Pyro]

Shame about Teachout, Williams and Nixon.
Thrilled to see the final fall of the IDC.
Let's see if the Democrats can make gains in the fall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Felder will continue to caucus with the Republican since his Orthodox Jewish base opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, and supports perks for yeshivas, like Felder, and he won't want to disappoint them by joining a party that does the opposite of all of those things.

He already said he was returning to the Democratic caucus though. He could go back if Republicans flip the chamber again in the future maybe, I suppose, but afaik he is still on track to break from Republicans next session (unless he has since changed his mind).

Why is he still caucusing with Republicans right now, then?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It looks like today can be interpretted two different ways:

1. Progressives completely failed in the top ballot, with Cuomo and his LG winning. James, while Liberal, has ties to the establishment, and so can be counted as a loss. It seems that the establishment/moderates/whatever you want to call them will be holding onto the top offices of NY.


2. The progressives turned the down ballot into a complete and total rout for the establishment/moderates. 6-7 IDC members have lost to progressives/DSAs and a state senator not even on the radar lost to a DSA member. It seems that NY may have one of the most progressive state legislatures of the Democratic states.

Nah. The better interpretation is that the party discipline has been imposed. The only "establishment moderate" to lose is a single obscure state senator. The IDC members lost not because they were "establishment moderates" but because they were traitors - the opposite of being party establishment.

As for the state legislature, methinks, you do not know how NY State legislature works. Once the leadership is elected, this is all that matters. The governor, for the most part, negotiates with majority leaders in the chambers. Things might have changed a bit since the "three men in the room" was the thing, but do not overestimate that change. Once elected, your "progressives" will not really be a problem at all for the party leadership - unlike the IDC guys they have nowhere to go, they cannot caucus with the Republicans. If Dems get an outright majority in the State Senate, they will be loyal soldiers. 

Cuomo won. Hochul won. Everything is going wonderful for the mainstream of NY Democratic Party.

Correct

[ag]

Except for the part where Cuomo actively encouraged Democrats to join the IDC.

You know full well it was not quite that. Cuomo can count votes. He needs to work with whatever majority there is in the Senate. Cooperating with the Republican Senate majority (and, given Felder, there is still a Republican majority) is a long-standing practice in the state. Once he realized that, due to the new partisan reality, IDC´s existence actually harmed his reputation, he made sure they folded.

[Zaybay]

Except for the part where Cuomo actively encouraged Democrats to join the IDC.

You know full well it was not quite that. Cuomo can count votes. He needs to work with whatever majority there is in the Senate. Cooperating with the Republican Senate majority (and, given Felder, there is still a Republican majority) is a long-standing practice in the state. Once he realized that, due to the new partisan reality, IDC´s existence actually harmed his reputation, he made sure they folded.

you do realize that you just confirmed that the IDC followed Cuomo's orders, right? And that your argument that its tradition to let the Rs control the state senate is ridiculous and has no basis in political reality?

[ag]

I also dont think that you understand the implications of this. The ones who are winning in the state legislature are not party sympathizers, but progressives, and with these victories, its official, the Progressives now outnumber the State Party. With this, they effectively control the agenda, and can write the bills. Unless Cuomo just wants to veto every Progressive bill coming out of the state senate, the progressives definitely won downballot, and the party took some serious hits.

I am willing to bet good money, the legislature will write exactly the bills Andrew Cuomo will want to sign - and no others. He will very happily be setting the agenda for his 2020 campaign. He is a mainstream Dem, and a few nice socially progressive reforms will only be welcomed by him. But if you are expecting a revolution of some sort - that will die long before he has to veto anyting whatsoever

Great victory for Mario Andrew Cuomo. Daddy would be proud!

[ag]

Except for the part where Cuomo actively encouraged Democrats to join the IDC.

You know full well it was not quite that. Cuomo can count votes. He needs to work with whatever majority there is in the Senate. Cooperating with the Republican Senate majority (and, given Felder, there is still a Republican majority) is a long-standing practice in the state. Once he realized that, due to the new partisan reality, IDC´s existence actually harmed his reputation, he made sure they folded.

you do realize that you just confirmed that the IDC followed Cuomo's orders, right? And that your argument that its tradition to let the Rs control the state senate is ridiculous and has no basis in political reality?

You do realize that you have just misread what I wrote? Would you mind re-reading it?

[Virginiá]

Felder will continue to caucus with the Republican since his Orthodox Jewish base opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, and supports perks for yeshivas, like Felder, and he won't want to disappoint them by joining a party that does the opposite of all of those things.

He already said he was returning to the Democratic caucus though. He could go back if Republicans flip the chamber again in the future maybe, I suppose, but afaik he is still on track to break from Republicans next session (unless he has since changed his mind).

Why is he still caucusing with Republicans right now, then?

At the time when he announced he would re-join the Democrats, he said he wasn't going to do that until the next session.

I don't have any inside scoop or anything. Just what I read. I assumed he wouldn't be re-joining officially until next year or something. But it was never supposed to be immediate.

[Zaybay]

I also dont think that you understand the implications of this. The ones who are winning in the state legislature are not party sympathizers, but progressives, and with these victories, its official, the Progressives now outnumber the State Party. With this, they effectively control the agenda, and can write the bills. Unless Cuomo just wants to veto every Progressive bill coming out of the state senate, the progressives definitely won downballot, and the party took some serious hits.

I am willing to bet good money, the legislature will write exactly the bills Andrew Cuomo will want to sign - and no others. He will very happily be setting the agenda for his 2020 campaign. He is a mainstream Dem, and a few nice socially progressive reforms will only be welcomed by him. But if you are expecting a revolution of some sort - that will die long before he has to veto anyting whatsoever

Great victory for Mario Andrew Cuomo. Daddy would be proud!

Not expecting a revolution, but I think you should turn around and look at what Cuomo became during the primary. He went very left, and even supported abolishing ICE. Of course, Cuomo will still hold sway over what happens, but its not a powerful grip, and many of his allies in the state senate lost today. The "anti-Cuomosits" won in many seats, and they now represent a majority in both chambers. I am expecting a more progressive agenda, and some fighting between Cuomo and the legislature.

Also, if he runs in 2020, he falls on his face. I mean, it would probably be just as bad as Biden's performance in 2008.

[Oryxslayer]

Something to keep in mind is that Cuomo for whatever reason believes that he can win the nomination  in 2020. It's why he has marched left at a break-neck pace. If the Republicans somehow maintain control in 2019, even after Dems gain the five or more expected seats in the senate, then it negatively affects Cuomo's 2020 bid. After all, the results tonight show that democrats are fine with moderates, but intolerant of traitors in the Trump era.

[Zaybay]

Except for the part where Cuomo actively encouraged Democrats to join the IDC.

You know full well it was not quite that. Cuomo can count votes. He needs to work with whatever majority there is in the Senate. Cooperating with the Republican Senate majority (and, given Felder, there is still a Republican majority) is a long-standing practice in the state. Once he realized that, due to the new partisan reality, IDC´s existence actually harmed his reputation, he made sure they folded.

you do realize that you just confirmed that the IDC followed Cuomo's orders, right? And that your argument that its tradition to let the Rs control the state senate is ridiculous and has no basis in political reality?

You do realize that you have just misread what I wrote? Would you mind re-reading it?

Yes, and what you said is basically is what I said. Cuomo created the IDC, they followed his orders, they looked bad in the primary, he got rid of them. He actively supported them in their primaries in money and campaigning, them losing is a big deal.

And, again, the only reason there is a Senate majority of Rs in the first place is due to Cuomo's influence. Without the IDC, the Dems would have been able to keep Felder in line(he sides with the Rs due to his policies and for power, a D majority in 2010-2012 would have kept him in check). He created this so that way he could exercise his moderate politics and come off as just a pragmatic guy getting stuff done. Anyway, the state party lost downballot, won at the top, so we will see what changes/doesnt change.

[Zaybay]

Something to keep in mind is that Cuomo for whatever reason believes that he can win the nomination  in 2020. It's why he has marched left at a break-neck pace. If the Republicans somehow maintain control in 2019, even after Dems gain the five or more expected seats in the senate, then it negatively affects Cuomo's 2020 bid. After all, the results tonight show that democrats are fine with moderates, but intolerant of traitors in the Trump era.

Please point to the moderates who won, because all I see is a Liberal AG, a moderate LG, and a suddenly super progressive Governor who wants to abolish ICE, and raised the minimum wage, and whatnot. The state party won at the top, not the moderates.

[ag]

I also dont think that you understand the implications of this. The ones who are winning in the state legislature are not party sympathizers, but progressives, and with these victories, its official, the Progressives now outnumber the State Party. With this, they effectively control the agenda, and can write the bills. Unless Cuomo just wants to veto every Progressive bill coming out of the state senate, the progressives definitely won downballot, and the party took some serious hits.

I am willing to bet good money, the legislature will write exactly the bills Andrew Cuomo will want to sign - and no others. He will very happily be setting the agenda for his 2020 campaign. He is a mainstream Dem, and a few nice socially progressive reforms will only be welcomed by him. But if you are expecting a revolution of some sort - that will die long before he has to veto anyting whatsoever

Great victory for Mario Andrew Cuomo. Daddy would be proud!

Not expecting a revolution, but I think you should turn around and look at what Cuomo became during the primary. He went very left, and even supported abolishing ICE. Of course, Cuomo will still hold sway over what happens, but its not a powerful grip, and many of his allies in the state senate lost today. The "anti-Cuomosits" won in many seats, and they now represent a majority in both chambers. I am expecting a more progressive agenda, and some fighting between Cuomo and the legislature.

Also, if he runs in 2020, he falls on his face. I mean, it would probably be just as bad as Biden's performance in 2008.

"Abolishing ICE" is exactly the sort of a position that can easily be adopted by any sensible Dem without any ideological problem whatsoever. I mean, ICE is a relatively new agency to begin with (remember the good old INS of my young days?) It has become controversial - get rid of it. Merging some of ICE, CBP and USCIS and calling it something else would not be a problem whatsoever, and it does sound nice. And, in any case, a Governor can do exactly nothing about it - even saying this is a part of a presidential campaign, not of this one

Once Dem majorities in both chambers are established, they will fight for the honor of cooperating with the governor on implementing his reform program.

[ag]

Something to keep in mind is that Cuomo for whatever reason believes that he can win the nomination  in 2020. It's why he has marched left at a break-neck pace. If the Republicans somehow maintain control in 2019, even after Dems gain the five or more expected seats in the senate, then it negatively affects Cuomo's 2020 bid. After all, the results tonight show that democrats are fine with moderates, but intolerant of traitors in the Trump era.

Please point to the moderates who won, because all I see is a Liberal AG, a moderate LG, and a suddenly super progressive Governor who wants to abolish ICE, and raised the minimum wage, and whatnot. The state party won at the top, not the moderates.

I mean, if you are willing to accept Cuomo as a non-moderate, why would I care? He is the same good old Gov. Cuomo I have always loved