Predict the 43rd Canadian federal election, 2019

[mileslunn]

For NDP pickups in Ontario, here are their best and most likely targets.

Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth
Beaches-East York
Oshawa
Brampton East
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Kenora (only if Howard Hampton runs again, otherwise stays Liberal)
Ottawa Centre

[136or142]

Also on the carbon tax, I have yet to see any evidence opposing it will be harmful even if there is a hot summer.  People may care about climate change, but people tend to care about their wallets even more.  At best Scheer's opposition to carbon tax might help ensure millennials show up again, but amongst boomers they are known to vote on their own self interest.  If you live in the urban centres, yes opposition to carbon tax will hurt them but they won't win those areas anyways.  But in the suburbs and rural areas where people's carbon footprint is a lot higher, I think if anything Scheer's opposition will help him not hurt.  Same reason Harper's stance on the GST helped him even though every economist panned the idea.  Likewise also why Trudeau's tax cut for the middle class by hiking it for the rich was popular even though many economists warned it would hurt our competitiveness was extremely popular.  Voters generally like having more money in their pockets at least amongst boomers and GenXers even if doing so is not beneficial to society as a whole.

It's not entirely logical since an imposition of the carbon tax certainly isn't going to reduce the increases in temperature right away, but I think people are beginning to appreciate that global warming has direct financial costs on them in terms of requiring costly air conditioning, as well as other costs like feeling dragged out and being unable to go out at all on extremely hot days.  And then there are the people who die from extreme heat waves.

[mileslunn]

Also on the carbon tax, I have yet to see any evidence opposing it will be harmful even if there is a hot summer.  People may care about climate change, but people tend to care about their wallets even more.  At best Scheer's opposition to carbon tax might help ensure millennials show up again, but amongst boomers they are known to vote on their own self interest.  If you live in the urban centres, yes opposition to carbon tax will hurt them but they won't win those areas anyways.  But in the suburbs and rural areas where people's carbon footprint is a lot higher, I think if anything Scheer's opposition will help him not hurt.  Same reason Harper's stance on the GST helped him even though every economist panned the idea.  Likewise also why Trudeau's tax cut for the middle class by hiking it for the rich was popular even though many economists warned it would hurt our competitiveness was extremely popular.  Voters generally like having more money in their pockets at least amongst boomers and GenXers even if doing so is not beneficial to society as a whole.

It's not entirely logical since an imposition of the carbon tax certainly isn't going to reduce the increases in temperature right away, but I think people are beginning to appreciate that global warming has direct financial costs on them in terms of requiring costly air conditioning, as well as other costs like feeling dragged out and being unable to go out at all on extremely hot days.  And then there are the people who die from extreme heat waves.

I think there is a strong generational divide too.  Amongst millennials agree, but that group doesn't have a great turnout, but amongst boomers skeptical.  Lets remember Ford was clear he opposed the carbon tax and it didn't stop him from being elected so I don't think one can dismiss Ford's election although no doubt fatigue with Wynne's government played a big role.  In BC, the carbon tax was quite controversial when introduced in 2008.  Right now its a non-issue as the fears those opposed claimed never materialized.  That being said if Trudeau uses all the revenue from the carbon tax to give it back to people in rebate cheques, the popularity of rebate cheques which they would lose under Scheer might work in his favour.  Most people in Canada believe climate change is real and want action, they just want someone else to pay for it.  That is a theme you see on many things where they want things but want someone else to pay for it.

[King of Kensington]

For NDP pickups in Ontario, here are their best and most likely targets.

Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth
Beaches-East York
Oshawa
Brampton East
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Kenora (only if Howard Hampton runs again, otherwise stays Liberal)
Ottawa Centre

Agree with most of this list.  In Toronto there are 3 seats where the NDP has a more solid voting base and gets around 40% even in bad times: Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Toronto-Danforth.  Beaches-East York is more "swingy" like Spadina-Fort York.

[mileslunn]

For NDP pickups in Ontario, here are their best and most likely targets.

Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth
Beaches-East York
Oshawa
Brampton East
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Kenora (only if Howard Hampton runs again, otherwise stays Liberal)
Ottawa Centre

Agree with most of this list.  In Toronto there are 3 seats where the NDP has a more solid voting base and gets around 40% even in bad times: Parkdale-High Park, Davenport and Toronto-Danforth.  Beaches-East York is more "swingy" like Spadina-Fort York.

Spadina-Fort York will probably be tough to win unless Liberals implode badly as both the new condos and re-distribution (loss of university portion) really hurt the NDP here.

[King of Kensington]

I don't see Adam Vaughan losing.  All I meant is I don't think they have much hope in Beaches-East York either.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Singh is still leader, the NDP will have a good chance (and will put a lot of resources) into winning Brampton North, Brampton Centre, and probably Brampton West and Brampton South too.

[King of Kensington]

What happens with the First Nations reserve vote?  In the last election there was an extraordinary rise in turnout because of a strong get out the vote effort and Trudeau talking seriously about reconciliation.  It very likely contributed to the Conservatives falling from first to third in Kenora for example.

In the left-wing "echo chamber" I often find myself in, the line is that Trudeau has massively disappointed FN people.  But I don't know what the real sentiment on the ground is.

[EPG]

This time I think some of the 3.5 million NDP voters will get squeezed, especially in Québec. Trump, M. bin Salman and Doug Ford are each suggestive of a Liberal majority, right now.

[King of Kensington]

Some random thoughts:

The Conservatives should get over 50% in Saskatchewan

BC will be the NDP's best province

The Conservative vote % will be higher in Ontario than BC

[mileslunn]

Some random thoughts:

The Conservatives should get over 50% in Saskatchewan

BC will be the NDP's best province

The Conservative vote % will be higher in Ontario than BC

A few other predictions going east to west

-  Liberals will not sweep Atlantic Canada again and Tories will win a few seats, but Liberals still will win the vast majority here, at least 20, probably over 25, and maybe as high as 29.

- Liberals will gain seats in Quebec.  Tories will gain votes but not necessarily seats, while NDP will at best win 5 seats.  BQ is a wildcard, but probably zero seats.

- Tories and NDP will gain seats in Ontario, but still win fewer than the Liberals

- Tories will come in first in votes in all three Prairie provinces but only a plurality in Manitoba while over 50% in Saskatchewan and over 60% in Alberta.  Manitoba best Prairie province for Liberals, Saskatchewan best for NDP in Prairies.

-  BC is a wildcard, but no party will get over 40% of the popular vote nor will any party get over 25 seats either and all three major ones get at least 7 seats and 20% of the popular vote.  If Greens do win another seat, it will be in the Greater Victoria area.

[Dipper Josh]

Two areas to watch in terms of Liberal vulnerability in Ontario:

York Region:  These weren't blowouts like in Peel and Ajax/Pickering; it was mostly narrow Liberal victories and the Conservatives got more than 40% of the vote virtually everywhere.  The PCs under Ford got over 50% of the vote in York Region.  It seems to have emerged as the most Conservative of the GTA suburban regions; even a pretty xenophobic Tory campaign in 2015 didn't take them out of contention.  Of course Scheer doesn't have the "hometown advantage" here that Ford sort of did (most of the money for the Fords municipal campaigns came from Vaughan).

The Bay of Quinte area:   More "liberal" than Eastern Ontario east of Kingston, the Liberals narrowly won Northumberland and Hastings-L&A and won Bay of Quinte by a surprisingly big margin.  But these could fall back to the Tories with just a slight wearing off of the 2015 red wave.

As a BoQ resident, i dont really see it.

Incumbent MP Neil Ellis was a popular mayor of Belleville before he ran for MP and there's nothing to suggest he's in jeopardy. Unless of course the nationally environment breaks heavy towards the Tories which i also doubt.

there is one x factor in this race however: The CPC candidate for our riding is a well liked radio host and political lightweight named Tim Durkin.

and who is the MPP for Bay of Quinte? Todd Smith, a former well liked radio host and political lightweight.