Predict the 43rd Canadian federal election, 2019

[UWS]

The next federal Canadian federal election is over one year from now and is getting tight. Who do you think will win the 2019 Canadian federal election? Will it be a minority or majority government? Explain why?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Liberals with a narrowed majority. Scheer doesn't have the skills to defeat Trudeau, and Singh doesn't have that WOW factor that could siphon off votes from the dominant left-leaning party that is in power. 

[Republican Left]

Blue Wave? (One can hope). But seriously, I understand Trudeau had a nice honeymoon and seems to be popular internationally (Canadian Macron?), but I heard there's been a few hitches during his term (granted all politicians have those). Canadians of Atlas, do you think his majority is overextended either way?

Do you think prospects may have been different if someone else like Chong or Bernier would have won? And on an unrelated note, what would you guys think of a PM Bernier, to be honest, it would be kinda interesting to see Canada hold a libertarian experiment (sorry to make you Canadians out to be guinea pigs). 

[DC Al Fine]

Blue Wave? (One can hope). But seriously, I understand Trudeau had a nice honeymoon and seems to be popular internationally (Canadian Macron?), but I heard there's been a few hitches during his term (granted all politicians have those). Canadians of Atlas, do you think his majority is overextended either way?

Do you think prospects may have been different if someone else like Chong or Bernier would have won? And on an unrelated note, what would you guys think of a PM Bernier, to be honest, it would be kinda interesting to see Canada hold a libertarian experiment (sorry to make you Canadians out to be guinea pigs). 

Bernier would have been a disaster as leader. He doesn't seem to understand that he would need more than libertarianism people to win an election. He'd alienate all the blue collar Tories  and wouldn't win over the Blue Liberals he'd need to make up for it because they aren't fond of libertarianism either.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

NDP are reduced to one or two seats in Québec (Caron might survive? maybe REB?), but make enough advances in the GTA and Vancouver that it isn't a total loss. BQ and its associated independents all lose for good.

Liberals lose ground in the Atlantic and BC, but are resurgent in Ontario without being dragged down by the unpopular provincial administration, and are helped in Québec by the province becoming a two party system with the demise of the NDP//Bloc. Trudea celebrates by retiring in the middle of his Second term and Freeland becomes PM.

No good news for the Tories aside from their revival in Québec. Scheer is dropped and replaced with a loudmouth.

[lilTommy]

Hard to say; Liberal Minority I'd assume. The Liberals so far have not been a failure, most of their issues or problems have been disappointing the left/progressives. Pro-Pipeline, failed electoral reform angered many but those are left-progressives. Success in cannabis reform, and an overall appearance of being open, progressive. I think they are losing more on the Centre-right then the Centre-left.

Scheer is no Trump, he isn't even a Harper, but the Cons are absorbing the anti-Liberal vote more then anyone. CONS gain the 4 Alberta Liberal seats, gain in Atlantic Canada too. But he is not at all comparable to either Trudeau or Singh when it comes to likability, charisma or personality to be honest. 

BQ gone, mix of that vote migrating to the CONS, NDP and Liberals

The NDP win gain in BC and Ontario; QC is hard to say at this point, the PLQ is not looking good to win the next provincial election, meaning both ON and QC will no longer have Liberal Provincial governments. I can see the NDP holding on mostly to what they have, some losses perhaps where the MP is not also well known and well liked, so maybe 4 or so MPs could be lost;l I could also see the NDP picking up though on the Island where Singh's urban appeal could... "could" help the NDP as anti-liberal vote among progressive will migrate to the NDP, maybe 1 or 2 pickups.

MAN./SASK, the Liberals will likely lose some to the NDP in Winnipeg; with no provincial NDP effect the NDP vote should increase. SASK, hard to say, probably same as right now. I could also see the NDP gain one of the territories.

[ON Progressive]

I'm thinking a Liberal majority. Scheer is not likeable, and Singh just doesn't seem competent.

[DC Al Fine]

Hard to say; Liberal Minority I'd assume. The Liberals so far have not been a failure, most of their issues or problems have been disappointing the left/progressives. Pro-Pipeline, failed electoral reform angered many but those are left-progressives. Success in cannabis reform, and an overall appearance of being open, progressive. I think they are losing more on the Centre-right then the Centre-left.

That's am interesting paradox. Trudeau is a disappointment to progressives, yet if anything he's taken votes away from the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Hard to say; Liberal Minority I'd assume. The Liberals so far have not been a failure, most of their issues or problems have been disappointing the left/progressives. Pro-Pipeline, failed electoral reform angered many but those are left-progressives. Success in cannabis reform, and an overall appearance of being open, progressive. I think they are losing more on the Centre-right then the Centre-left.

That's am interesting paradox. Trudeau is a disappointment to progressives, yet if anything he's taken votes away from the NDP.

Not really... looking at the June polling the NDP is about at the same % they had in 2015, 19-20% (some polls are over about 21%, 22%, only 1 has them much lower at 16%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election

NOW where is that vote coming from will determine seats; losses potentially in rural QC could be offset by gains in BC/ON and as detailed above (in my opinion). But could also lead to losses, at this point it does look like Minority. But as 2015 taught us, campaigns matter.
Liberals are averaging 34-35%, about -5, the Conservatives are averaging 33-34% about +2.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP are reduced to one or two seats in Québec (Caron might survive? maybe REB?), but make enough advances in the GTA and Vancouver that it isn't a total loss. BQ and its associated independents all lose for good.

The NDP will lose its rural seats yes, but where's the evidence they would lose their seats in Montreal? Boulerice will in the very least keep his seat. The Plateau is very, very left wing.

[lilTommy]

NDP are reduced to one or two seats in Québec (Caron might survive? maybe REB?), but make enough advances in the GTA and Vancouver that it isn't a total loss. BQ and its associated independents all lose for good.

The NDP will lose its rural seats yes, but where's the evidence they would lose their seats in Montreal? Boulerice will in the very least keep his seat. The Plateau is very, very left wing.

Hochelaga and Laurier-Sainte-Marie also fall under that description of being very left-wing, this is Quebec-Solidaire territory provincially. Hochelaga being more working class then Laurier--Sainte-Marie and more francophone.
I could see the NDP lose Drummond, Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot right now. Jonquiere and Trois-Rivieres  maybe but I think they will remain NDP. If not for the MPs troubles I'd say Abitibi-Temiscamingue would be more or less a keep for the NDP, but now with the MPs issues, up in the air.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP are reduced to one or two seats in Québec (Caron might survive? maybe REB?), but make enough advances in the GTA and Vancouver that it isn't a total loss. BQ and its associated independents all lose for good.

The NDP will lose its rural seats yes, but where's the evidence they would lose their seats in Montreal? Boulerice will in the very least keep his seat. The Plateau is very, very left wing.

Hochelaga and Laurier-Sainte-Marie also fall under that description of being very left-wing, this is Quebec-Solidaire territory provincially. Hochelaga being more working class then Laurier--Sainte-Marie and more francophone.
I could see the NDP lose Drummond, Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot right now. Jonquiere and Trois-Rivieres  maybe but I think they will remain NDP. If not for the MPs troubles I'd say Abitibi-Temiscamingue would be more or less a keep for the NDP, but now with the MPs issues, up in the air.

Moore's seat seems like such a bad fit for the Liberals. It will be weird to see the Liberals win it... Actually I see they won it in a by-election in 2003. What happened there?

[President Johnson]

Haven't been following this cloesly, but I think Trudeu wins reelection with a slightly closer majority.

[UWS]

Who knows, if the NDP run a perfectly strong candidate in Regina Qu'Appelle (that has for most of the time voted conservative by only between 10-15 percentage points), maybe Andrew Scheer could be defeated in Regina Qu'Appelle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regina%E2%80%94Qu%27Appelle

[DC Al Fine]

Who knows, if the NDP run a perfectly strong candidate in Regina Qu'Appelle (that has for most of the time voted conservative by only between 10-15 percentage points), maybe Andrew Scheer could be defeated in Regina Qu'Appelle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regina%E2%80%94Qu%27Appelle

Technically possible, but Scheer will get a leader's bump, and the Tories are doing much better in the prairies compared to 2015.

[Foucaulf]

A lot can change in a year, guys. Anyone who feels confident about a prediction right now needs to put up and specifically predict how the race will look in Greater Toronto and Quebec.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

The political situation is in flux here and it would foolish to make specific predictions about the next parliament’s composition. I am confident enough about the general trends to make these two predictions:

1. Both Trudeau and Scheer will remain as the leaders of their respective parties beyond 2019 and through the election that follows it.

2. The NDP will be utterly routed in Quebec and British Columbia, losing official party status.

[King of Kensington]

Why do you think the NDP will be routed in BC?  Is this based on the assumption that the Horgan government will be massively unpopular by then?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can someone explain to me why people think the NDP are collapsing in Quebec? Why would that happen?

[Njall]

Who knows, if the NDP run a perfectly strong candidate in Regina Qu'Appelle (that has for most of the time voted conservative by only between 10-15 percentage points), maybe Andrew Scheer could be defeated in Regina Qu'Appelle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regina%E2%80%94Qu%27Appelle

Technically possible, but Scheer will get a leader's bump, and the Tories are doing much better in the prairies compared to 2015.

I'd have a hard time believing that the NDP could win there. The rural areas vote overwhelmingly conservative, and they consistently outweigh the NDP votes in the First Nations reserves and the quarter of Regina that's in the riding.

Blue Wave? (One can hope). But seriously, I understand Trudeau had a nice honeymoon and seems to be popular internationally (Canadian Macron?), but I heard there's been a few hitches during his term (granted all politicians have those). Canadians of Atlas, do you think his majority is overextended either way?

Do you think prospects may have been different if someone else like Chong or Bernier would have won? And on an unrelated note, what would you guys think of a PM Bernier, to be honest, it would be kinda interesting to see Canada hold a libertarian experiment (sorry to make you Canadians out to be guinea pigs). 

Bernier would have been a disaster as leader. He doesn't seem to understand that he would need more than libertarianism people to win an election. He'd alienate all the blue collar Tories  and wouldn't win over the Blue Liberals he'd need to make up for it because they aren't fond of libertarianism either.

Curious – what are Blue Liberals like?

There are a couple ways that come to mind for how to characterize Blue Liberals, although it's a pretty broad label, so some (possibly many) Blue Liberals would only meet some of these traits:

1. Simplistically, they are LPC-CPC swing voters who lean towards the LPC, on average

2. They are fiscally conservative, but not to an orthodox extent. For example, supporting lowered taxes as a principle, but only if the budget is already balanced (while some Conservatives constantly call for lowered taxes even if the budget is unbalanced, like Doug Ford in the recent Ontario campaign).

3. They are economically liberal, in the sense that they generally reject (what they see as) government overregulation of business, and support policies like free trade. This is one of the big reasons why they are unlikely to vote NDP.

4. They are socially progressive, and believe in the positive role of government in addressing social issues.

Can someone explain to me why people think the NDP are collapsing in Quebec? Why would that happen?

For starters, they've slipped in the polls in Quebec since the 2015 election, and that was already an election where a number of their seats were won by extremely close margins. In fact, half of their Quebec seats (8 of the 16) were won with less than 33% of the vote, meaning that they could lose a substantial number of seats there on a very small swing.

[UWS]

Who knows, if the NDP run a perfectly strong candidate in Regina Qu'Appelle (that has for most of the time voted conservative by only between 10-15 percentage points), maybe Andrew Scheer could be defeated in Regina Qu'Appelle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regina%E2%80%94Qu%27Appelle

Technically possible, but Scheer will get a leader's bump, and the Tories are doing much better in the prairies compared to 2015.

I'd have a hard time believing that the NDP could win there. The rural areas vote overwhelmingly conservative, and they consistently outweigh the NDP votes in the First Nations reserves and the quarter of Regina that's in the riding.

Blue Wave? (One can hope). But seriously, I understand Trudeau had a nice honeymoon and seems to be popular internationally (Canadian Macron?), but I heard there's been a few hitches during his term (granted all politicians have those). Canadians of Atlas, do you think his majority is overextended either way?

Do you think prospects may have been different if someone else like Chong or Bernier would have won? And on an unrelated note, what would you guys think of a PM Bernier, to be honest, it would be kinda interesting to see Canada hold a libertarian experiment (sorry to make you Canadians out to be guinea pigs). 

Bernier would have been a disaster as leader. He doesn't seem to understand that he would need more than libertarianism people to win an election. He'd alienate all the blue collar Tories  and wouldn't win over the Blue Liberals he'd need to make up for it because they aren't fond of libertarianism either.

Curious – what are Blue Liberals like?

There are a couple ways that come to mind for how to characterize Blue Liberals, although it's a pretty broad label, so some (possibly many) Blue Liberals would only meet some of these traits:

1. Simplistically, they are LPC-CPC swing voters who lean towards the LPC, on average

2. They are fiscally conservative, but not to an orthodox extent. For example, supporting lowered taxes as a principle, but only if the budget is already balanced (while some Conservatives constantly call for lowered taxes even if the budget is unbalanced, like Doug Ford in the recent Ontario campaign).

3. They are economically liberal, in the sense that they generally reject (what they see as) government overregulation of business, and support policies like free trade. This is one of the big reasons why they are unlikely to vote NDP.

4. They are socially progressive, and believe in the positive role of government in addressing social issues.

Can someone explain to me why people think the NDP are collapsing in Quebec? Why would that happen?

For starters, they've slipped in the polls in Quebec since the 2015 election, and that was already an election where a number of their seats were won by extremely close margins. In fact, half of their Quebec seats (8 of the 16) were won with less than 33% of the vote, meaning that they could lose a substantial number of seats there on a very small swing.

In addition, a by-election will have to be held in Outremont somewhere in November or December 2018 due to Tom Mulcair's retirement and according to political analysts and to the website Too Close to Call, that would favor a Liberal victory in Outremont (which was a Liberal stronghold before Mulcair's election there in 2007), which would be another blow for the NDP even before the next federal election.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outremont_(electoral_district)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_42nd_Canadian_Parliament#Outremont

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201802/17/01-5154251-conserver-outremont-le-gros-defi-du-npd.php

[TheSaint250]

I feel as though Trudeau will win (unfortunately), with anything from a slightly larger majority to a narrow plurality. From what I'm reading, Singh hasn't been too inspiring and is failing to draw votes in favor of the NDP, but I suspect there will be a small bump upwards in the popular vote. Scheer seems to have the same problem, but Conservative Party will probably gain votes in spite of him, not because of him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can someone explain to me why people think the NDP are collapsing in Quebec? Why would that happen?

Because Quebecers are racist. Socially progressive racists.

[King of Kensington]

Bernier would have been a disaster as leader. He doesn't seem to understand that he would need more than libertarianism people to win an election. He'd alienate all the blue collar Tories  and wouldn't win over the Blue Liberals he'd need to make up for it because they aren't fond of libertarianism either.

Bingo.

[King of Kensington]

1. Simplistically, they are LPC-CPC swing voters who lean towards the LPC, on average

2. They are fiscally conservative, but not to an orthodox extent. For example, supporting lowered taxes as a principle, but only if the budget is already balanced (while some Conservatives constantly call for lowered taxes even if the budget is unbalanced, like Doug Ford in the recent Ontario campaign).

3. They are economically liberal, in the sense that they generally reject (what they see as) government overregulation of business, and support policies like free trade. This is one of the big reasons why they are unlikely to vote NDP.

4. They are socially progressive, and believe in the positive role of government in addressing social issues.

Obviously #2 didn't apply to many who could be categorize as "blue Liberals" in the most recent Ontario election.