Predict the 43rd Canadian federal election, 2019

[Republican Left]

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What can the Conservatives or Tories do in order to reach these voters into the fold and secure their prospects for a long-term majority for several decades?

[lilTommy]

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What can the Conservatives or Tories do in order to reach these voters into the fold and secure their prospects for a long-term majority for several decades?

Under Scheer, nothing, some of these Blue Liberals will be out of reach. #4 in particular.
#2 I can see already have migrated over to some extent which is why the LPC is polling lower then in 2015. #3 though I think are still right now with the LPC especially due to this Trump/NAFTA negotiation where the LPC is strongly standing for liberal/open trade. 

[KingSweden]

I think the Liberals lose their majority but achieve a minority government. Neither Scheer nor Singh strike me as the types who can take advantage of Justin’s weaknesses.

[Njall]

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What can the Conservatives or Tories do in order to reach these voters into the fold and secure their prospects for a long-term majority for several decades?

Under Scheer, nothing, some of these Blue Liberals will be out of reach. #4 in particular.
#2 I can see already have migrated over to some extent which is why the LPC is polling lower then in 2015. #3 though I think are still right now with the LPC especially due to this Trump/NAFTA negotiation where the LPC is strongly standing for liberal/open trade. 

I would agree with that analysis. One of the effects of the PC-CA merger is that it did put a sizeable amount of Blue Liberals out of reach for a CPC led by the likes of Harper and Scheer. The old PCs had a much easier time attracting Blue Liberals, and the CPC revamping themselves to be more like that would help attract these voters, but could in-turn encourage much of the current CPC base to move to a Reform 2.0-esque party. We sort of saw this in the CPC leadership: Michael Chong was the candidate who would have been most attractive to Blue Liberals, and he performed well in urban ridings where bases of people like this were more likely to reside, but much of the dedicated CPC base rejected his message.

[King of Kensington]

"Blue Liberal" is an umbrella term for those on the right-wing of the Liberal Party - people who would vote Conservative before they would vote NDP.  But the reasons for their defection aren't always the same. 

Obviously they're not going to vote for Conservatives who offer nothing but "movement conservatism" - such as Bernier-style libertarianism and Hudak-style hyper-austerity.

But their views on economics and social policy vary.  Some are Liberals just because of family tradition - and they don't necessarily have coherent or united views on social issues, trade, deficits etc. - but lean more right than left overall.  Then there are what I suppose can be called "Paul Martin Liberals" with a more coherent political philosophy: socially liberal, pro-free trade, believe in government spending within a framework of "competitiveness" etc.

[Lotuslander]

The political situation is in flux here and it would foolish to make specific predictions about the next parliament’s composition. I am confident enough about the general trends to make these two predictions:

1. Both Trudeau and Scheer will remain as the leaders of their respective parties beyond 2019 and through the election that follows it.

2. The NDP will be utterly routed in Quebec and British Columbia, losing official party status.

Not bad assessment.

As for BC? I will go out on a limb:

LPC will remain entrenched in Van City proper & surrounding inner suburbs as well as northern Surrey - potentially picking off Richmond Centre (CPC), Burnaby South (NDP), Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP). OTOH, LPC likely to lose some suburban/ exurban seats to CPC.

CPC, after worst BC pop. vote share in 2015 in decades, will likely pick off some LPC suburban/exurban seats as well as NDP rural seats (Kootenay-Columbia, South Okanagan-West Kootenay, Courtenay-Alberni) as well as suburban Port Moody-Coquitlam)

NDP will be big loser in terms of rural, suburban, & urban seats for plethora of reasons.

Caveat. One other dynamic not factored in, which is BC-centric. Within 1 1/2 - 2 years of BC NDP gov't, NDP brand becomes severely tarnished in BC & fed NDP in BC becomes victim of same. To wit, after August, 1972 BC NDP election win, fed NDP collapsed to just 2 BC seats in following 1974 fed election. Again, after October, 1991 BC NDP election win, fed NDP collapsed to just 2 BC seats in following 1993 fed election & basically remained there in subsequent 1997 & 2000 fed elections.

The foregoing will further change BC electoral dynamic as well.

In Ontario, with so many close 2015 LPC-CPC races how will these ridings go in 2019? In QC, will CPC gain rural seats with apparent collapse of BQ/NDP vote & soft-nationalist vote drifting CPC?

All too early to tell at this point.

Right now still see LPC winning 2019 election but whether it's a majority or minority still debatable.

[windjammer]

I mean, Trudeau seems to be quite an idiot.


A conservative victory is likely I guess?

[LabourJersey]

I'll go against conventional wisdom and say the Tories win narrowly

[mileslunn]

There are four possible outcomes here, three which are very plausible and one which is possible but unlikely.  Nonetheless I would say there is 90% chance Justin Trudeau remains on as PM (unless he resigns, perhaps groping issue or something else).

1.  Liberal Majority: Not likely right at the moment, but still very possible as with Trump's trade war, that could benefit the Liberals since people usually unite behind their leader when their country is under attack.

2.  Liberal minority: Most likely outcome at the moment but could change.

3.  Conservative minority: Quite possible, but likely means Scheer becomes PM in 2023, not 2019.  There is no way the NDP will prop up the Tories and if Singh did, the NDP would dump him as leader quickly.  Likewise if Trudeau resigned to make way for Scheer to become PM, Liberals would put in place a leader who would promise to either form a coalition or have a supply and confidence agreement with the NDP.  So if Liberals + NDP + Greens get over 170 seats, Liberals stay on.  Only if Tories get 169 seats due they form government as they would likely refuse to put up a speaker unless the opposition allows them to govern.

4.  Conservative majority: Only possible if there is a Blue Wave in Quebec, which is possible, but more likely to not happen than happen.

Atlantic Canada

Liberals: Should win the majority of seats here, quite possibly north of 25 seats, but a clean sweep seems highly unlikely.  Clean sweep of PEI very likely, highly likely for Newfoundland and quite possible for Nova Scotia, but unlikely for New Brunswick.

Tories: Should win some seats, but likely in the single digits unless something dramatic happens.  Will likely win seats in New Brunswick and could even get as many as 5-6 seats here, but unless they recruit a really strong candidate, I expect them to be shut out of PEI and Newfoundland & Labrador.  Possible they pick up a seat or two in Rural Nova Scotia, but far from certain (Cumberland-Colchester if Bill Casey retires which is quite possible due to his age or Central Nova if Peter MacKay runs seem the most likely ones they could pick up).

NDP: Unlike Tories could face another shut out, but could also win seats if they can recruit popular candidates like Jack Harris, Megan Leslie, Yvon Godin's son or perhaps some other former provincial politician, but unlikely to win more than 3 seats.

Quebec

Liberals: Should gain seats here, but support is soft so far from certain, but likely not due to Trudeau's popularity, but rather weakness of other parties.  That being said they absolutely must make gains in Quebec if they want to win another majority.

Tories: Will likely come in second, but a Blue Wave outside Montreal while possible, is not likely.  Wouldn't be surprised if they jump to 25% or even 30% (could also get as low as 15% too), but due to the fact they are so weak outside of the Quebec region, 15% or 30% actually makes little difference in terms of seat count.  In fact if they get in the high 20s, it just increases their odds of winning the popular vote but losing seat wise due to vote inefficiency (Lots of new votes in Quebec, but few new seats and running up the margins in rural Prairie ridings).

NDP: Will be lucky if they can hold onto 5 seats.  East end of Montreal is quite progressive so Outremont by-election will be telling.  If the NDP holds it or has a strong second, then their chances are good, but if they lose badly there, not so much.  A few popular MPs in the regions like Ruth Ellen Brousseau or Guy Caron may hold on due to personal popularity.

BQ:  Probably 0 seats due to their current troubles, but they have bounced back before when we thought they were dead, so don't want to totally count them out yet, but time is running out.  While a centre-left party, it appears their implosion has benefitted the Tories most as it looks like most progressives who voted BQ left in 2011 and they were largely left with your older rural nationalists who tend to be more right wing.

Ontario

Liberals: Will have a tough time winning 80 seats, but still could easily win more than half.  40 seats is their absolute worst case scenario.  Despite the provincial drubbing, that is more a forewarning of what could happen to the Liberals down the road if they remain in power too long, but very unlikely in 2019.  Also with Wynne out and Ford in, they will no longer be dragged down by their unpopular provincial cousins and Ford's low approval as well as the fact he will probably make his most unpopular decisions early in his mandate should help them.

Tories: More likely to gain than lose seats and could even win more than half the seats (Not likely, but more likely a majority in Ontario than federally however), but despite their strong showing provincially, I doubt they will do as well seat wise.  40.5% in popular vote is definitely possible although far from certain and more likely they will do worse than better, but even if they do get that, they likely won't win 76 seats for two reason: 1.  Weaker splits on the left than you had provincially  2.  Liberal vote far more efficient than NDP one so Liberals at 33.6% will get more seats than NDP would at that.

NDP: Andrea Horwath's impact will have largely dissipated by then so while they could gain some seats, I don't think they will get anywhere close to the 40 seats they got provincially.  Andrea Horwath has a blue collar background unlike Singh so I don't think he will do as well in Southwestern Ontario or South Central Ontario.  Also in the downtown cores, most are promiscuous progressives, not NDP supporters so they will rally behind whomever is most likely to keep the Tories out of office which at the moment seems to be the Liberals.  A 30 point swing in downtown Toronto between NDP and Liberals in one week is not unusual as keeping the Tories out is what matters, not whom ultimately wins.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

Tories: Should win big in all the rural seats save the two Northern ones.  Saskatoon, Regina, and South and West Winnipeg will be the battlegrounds which they might win or might not.  Almost certain to come in first in Saskatchewan, but Manitoba could go either way.

Liberals: Should hold some seats in Winnipeg and may pick up the two Northern ones due to Trudeau's efforts on the aboriginal file.  In Saskatchewan, could face shut out if Ralph Goodale retires (definitely stays Liberal if he runs again, goes NDP or Tory, more likely NDP if he retires).

NDP: May gain a bit in Manitoba since the wildly unpopular provincial NDP government is no longer in power, but for whatever reason haven't had the same success federally as they have provincially.  Will win some urban seats in Saskatchewan so no risk of a shut out.  They were shut out 2004-2015 due to the gerrymandered urban/rural ridings since the Tories run up the margins in the rural parts, but with the elimination of those, they no longer face this risk as still quite strong in Regina and Saskatoon.

Alberta

Tories: Should win big here and likely will for the foreseeable future, but the days of sweeping the province are likely over.  While GenXers and Boomers still heavily favour the Tories, millennials are a lot more progressive and with the average age being only around 30 in the downtown cores, those ridings are far tougher to win than a decade ago.

Liberals: Definitely could get shut out, but could hold the seats they have, millennial turnout will be the key.  Strong millennial turnout and they should win a few seats in both cities while poor millennial turnout and they lose all four.

NDP: Should hold Edmonton-Strathcona and maybe pick up a few other Edmonton ones if the provincial NDP pulls off a surprise win or has a stronger second place showing than expected.  But don't expect them to win anything federally in Calgary or rest of Alberta.

British Columbia

Liberals: Despite all the talk of them paying a big price for the pipeline, I don't buy this.  More residents support the pipeline than oppose so only in Vancouver proper and adjacent suburbs might it hurt them.  They face a greater threat on their right flank than left one from those in the outer suburbs and Interior IMHO.

Tories: Will likely due better than their dismal 30% showing in 2015, but could lose seats if progressives unite behind one party, but more likely to gain, although a majority in the province only possible if they get over 35% and you have strong splits on the left (Sort of like 2004 where they got 36% but won 22 of the 36 seats in BC).  Doubt they will crack the 40% mark as usually when it is an NDP-Tory race, they get over 40% as the same voters who vote for the pro free enterprise party provincially vote for them, but when the Liberals get over 20% (as I suspect they will), they usually only get in the 30s.

NDP: A lot will depend on how the provincial NDP government performs.  Right now their approval ratings are okay so unlikely to harm them much, but in 1974, 1993, 1997 and 2000 suffered greatly due to unpopularity of their provincial counterparts.  Nonetheless still expect them to win at least 6-7 seats and possibly many more as younger voters are a lot more progressive in BC so the things that made the NDP hated amongst Boomers in 90s are probably not likely to damage them amongst millennials as much as Boomers tend to be driven more by self interest whereas millennials often tend to like at impacts on society as a whole unless how it affects them.

Green Party: Elizabeth May wins her seat and possible they pick up another one or two in the Greater Victoria area, but not competitive elsewhere.

Northern Canada

Liberals: Should hold all three, although their carbon tax which is very unpopular could hurt them here and help the Tories, but Trudeau's strong support for the Aboriginal community will likely more than cancel this out, especially in NWT and Nunavut.

Tories and NDP:  Can win any of the three if they get a strong candidate as in the North local candidate as opposed to party matters more.  Carbon Tax should help the Tories, but opposition to C-71 won't as unlike the gun registry, changes are pretty modest and if anything their opposition to this will more likely hinder their chances of breaking through in the suburbs.

[Vega]

I think the Liberals lose their majority but achieve a minority government. Neither Scheer nor Singh strike me as the types who can take advantage of Justin’s weaknesses.

Then how are the Liberals losing their majority? We saw in the last election that waiting for Trudeau to trip over his own feet isn't a winning strategy - who else are the Liberals going to lose 15 seats to? The Bloc? Of course not.

Trudeau is at his best on the campaign trail and there is no real reason to think he's going to lose his majority, at least at this point.

[UWS]

I think the Liberals lose their majority but achieve a minority government. Neither Scheer nor Singh strike me as the types who can take advantage of Justin’s weaknesses.

Then how are the Liberals losing their majority? We saw in the last election that waiting for Trudeau to trip over his own feet isn't a winning strategy - who else are the Liberals going to lose 15 seats to? The Bloc? Of course not.

Trudeau is at his best on the campaign trail and there is no real reason to think he's going to lose his majority, at least at this point.

And in addition, another reason of the NDP’s decline is because there will be a by-election in Burnaby-South, British Columbia and the NDP won it by only less than 2 percentage points over the Liberals in 2015. In addition of losing Thomas Mulcair’s vacant seat of Outremont in November 2018’s by-election there, that will be a series of blows for the NDP.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Canadian_federal_election#2018

That being said, I guess that the NDP’s collapse might ensure Trudeau’s re-election since it would once again lead some NDP traditional voters to vote liberal since NDP’s progressive voters might prefer Trudeau over Andrew Scheer’s conservative agenda.

[King of Kensington]

Liberals will be re-elected.  Either with a very large minority or the tiniest of majorities.

[mileslunn]

Liberals will be re-elected.  Either with a very large minority or the tiniest of majorities.

Most likely true, but even if Tories win a plurality of seats Trudeau will remain PM as NDP will prop him up.

[136or142]

My partisan bias to be sure, but I actually have a track record of generally underestimating with my predictions (predicted a narrow B.C Liberal majority reelection, a minority Federal Liberal win in 2015.)

With Doug Ford playing to his base and if 2019 is another hot summer and Scheer either tries to evade the issue or actively campaigns against the carbon tax, I'll go out on a limb and predict a landslide Liberal reelection.  I think in this scenario the Conservatives will lose around half of the 33 seats they hold in Ontario while the Liberals will also take several ridings from the NDP in Quebec and in British Columbia due to Conservative weakness.

So, if 2019 is another hot summer, I predict the Liberals will win somewhere slightly over 200 seats.

[King of Kensington]

I don't see the Conservatives losing seats in Ontario.  They were pretty much reduced to their core vote and stoking fears about immigration and railing against the carbon tax won't hurt them in the ridings they hold.

BC seems to be trending away from the Conservatives more than Ontario is - but they were reduced to pretty little already last time in seats.

[MAINEiac4434]

When was the last time Canada failed to reelect a government after its first term? Clark in 1980?

Trudeau and the Liberals will win, probably losing around a dozen or so seats, mostly to the Tories. Scheer really isn't the kind of Conservative Canada would elect PM and the NDP don't look strong enough to help the Tories out in some marginal ridings.

[136or142]

I don't see the Conservatives losing seats in Ontario.  They were pretty much reduced to their core vote and stoking fears about immigration and railing against the carbon tax won't hurt them in the ridings they hold.

BC seems to be trending away from the Conservatives more than Ontario is - but they were reduced to pretty little already last time in seats.

I'm sure you know more about Ontario politics than I do, but most of these seats were won by the Conservatives pretty narrowly in 2015 and a slight shift to the Liberals based on either
1.Dislike of the fearmongering politics
2.Dislike of Doug Ford and his mindless populism
3.A shift of some New Democrats to the Liberals

could swing a bunch of them to the Liberals.

1.Carleton
2.Barrie-Inisfil
3.Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte
4.Simcoe-Grey
5.Simcoe North
6.Markham-Unionville
7.Oshawa
8.Flamborough-Glanbrook
9.Milton
10.Niagara Falls
11.Brantford-Brant
12.Huron-Bruce
13.Kitchener-Conestoga
14.Perth-Wellington
15.Chatham-Kent-Leamington
16.Sarnia-Lambton
17.Parry Sound-Muskoka

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see the Liberals winning many of those seats.

Maybe one or both of the Barrie seats. It will also depend on if some popular incumbents retire. Milton, Niagara Falls and Brantford-Brant are all possible pickups if their incumbents don't run for re-election.

[136or142]

I don't see the Liberals winning many of those seats.

Maybe one or both of the Barrie seats. It will also depend on if some popular incumbents retire. Milton, Niagara Falls and Brantford-Brant are all possible pickups if their incumbents don't run for re-election.

For especially Oshawa, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Brantford-Brant and Sarnia-Lambton it also depends on how well the NDP does.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see the Liberals winning many of those seats.

Maybe one or both of the Barrie seats. It will also depend on if some popular incumbents retire. Milton, Niagara Falls and Brantford-Brant are all possible pickups if their incumbents don't run for re-election.

For especially Oshawa, Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lambton it also depends on how well the NDP does.

The Liberals won't win any of those seats. The latter two have become true blue SW rurban ridings, while Oshawa suffers from divided non-Tory loyalties. The NDP will futilely target it again. 

[King of Kensington]

I really don't see the rural Ontario seats flipping to the Liberals.  If they couldn't take them during the height of the red wave, I don't see them taking them next time.  

In Harper's first time out leading the newly merged Conservative Party - where the attempt to put on a more moderate face failed time out - the Tories got 24 out of 106 seats in Ontario.  I really don't see them going below that in a worst case scenario.

[136or142]

I really don't see the rural Ontario seats flipping to the Liberals.  If they couldn't take them during the height of the red wave, I don't see them taking them next time.  

In Harper's first time out leading the newly merged Conservative Party - where the attempt to put on a more moderate face failed time out - the Tories got 24 out of 106 seats in Ontario.  I really don't see them going below that in a worst case scenario.

And then in 2011 the Conservatives won 73 of 106 seats in Ontario.

[mileslunn]

I think the Conservatives are more likely to gain than lose seats in Ontario.  Probably not enough to beat the Liberals, but they were pretty close to their base in 2015.  I have yet to meet a Conservative voter from 2015 who plans to vote Liberal.  If the Liberals had a Blue Liberal leader like say John Manley then I think you might be able to win over some Conservative voters from 2015 but with Justin Trudeau being left of centre, I think if anything you are likely to see the opposite as some traditional Tories went Liberal in 2015 as they were sick of Harper and thought the Liberals would be centrist like they were in the 90s.  As for Scheer being too right wing, he is no moderate but roughly the same spot on the spectrum as Harper and no further right than Doug Ford.  I agree the election of Doug Ford will hurt them somewhat and thus why I don't think they will win a majority of seats in Ontario whereas had Wynne or Horwath won its quite possible they would have gotten over 60 seats.  That being said Doug Ford was always known as a right wing populist and people still voted for him anyways, never mind in 2015 Kathleen Wynne only had a 30% approval rating and actively campaigned for Trudeau yet didn't stop the Liberals from winning big.

I could see a few Tory seats flipping to the Liberals, but that will be more to demographic changes and less due to Tory voters flipping to the Liberals.  The two Barrie ridings, Milton, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Kitchener-Conestoga, and Carleton have a lot of new families moving in every year so they could flip due to demographic churn.  At the same time in most 905 ridings in 2015, the Tories got over 40% so the Liberals holding them including ones with cabinet ministers like Markham-Stouffville and Burlington depends a lot on keeping the NDP vote down.  If the NDP vote rebounds at all, then I could see the Tories picking those up.  Also voter turnout is another thing that could favour the Tories as voter turnout was exceptionally high in 2015 and whether the Liberals can maintain that in 2019 is questionable.  The Tory base may be a minority but they are very motivated to show up.

I could see the Liberals gaining in Quebec, agree there.  British Columbia where I live now is a wildcard although if BC NDP becomes wildly unpopular that would probably benefit the Liberals more than Tories, but again Tories were rock bottom and I suspect they will probably get around 35% as opposed to 30% this time, but how that translates into seats depends a lot on the splits.

Also on the carbon tax, I have yet to see any evidence opposing it will be harmful even if there is a hot summer.  People may care about climate change, but people tend to care about their wallets even more.  At best Scheer's opposition to carbon tax might help ensure millennials show up again, but amongst boomers they are known to vote on their own self interest.  If you live in the urban centres, yes opposition to carbon tax will hurt them but they won't win those areas anyways.  But in the suburbs and rural areas where people's carbon footprint is a lot higher, I think if anything Scheer's opposition will help him not hurt.  Same reason Harper's stance on the GST helped him even though every economist panned the idea.  Likewise also why Trudeau's tax cut for the middle class by hiking it for the rich was popular even though many economists warned it would hurt our competitiveness was extremely popular.  Voters generally like having more money in their pockets at least amongst boomers and GenXers even if doing so is not beneficial to society as a whole.

[King of Kensington]

Two areas to watch in terms of Liberal vulnerability in Ontario:

York Region:  These weren't blowouts like in Peel and Ajax/Pickering; it was mostly narrow Liberal victories and the Conservatives got more than 40% of the vote virtually everywhere.  The PCs under Ford got over 50% of the vote in York Region.  It seems to have emerged as the most Conservative of the GTA suburban regions; even a pretty xenophobic Tory campaign in 2015 didn't take them out of contention.  Of course Scheer doesn't have the "hometown advantage" here that Ford sort of did (most of the money for the Fords municipal campaigns came from Vaughan).

The Bay of Quinte area:   More "liberal" than Eastern Ontario east of Kingston, the Liberals narrowly won Northumberland and Hastings-L&A and won Bay of Quinte by a surprisingly big margin.  But these could fall back to the Tories with just a slight wearing off of the 2015 red wave.

[mileslunn]

If I were to list the ridings I think the Tories have the best chance at picking up, these would be the ones I would put.  Note I doubt they will win all them, even half is a stretch, but those would seem like the best targets.

Etobicoke Centre
York Centre
Don Valley North
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Agincourt
Whitby
Pickering-Uxbridge
Vaughan-Woodbridge
King-Vaughan
Richmond Hill
Markham-Stouffville
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
Newmarket-Aurora
Mississauga-Lakeshore
Mississauga-Erin Mills
Mississauga-Streetsville
Oakville
Oakville North-Burlington
Burlington
St. Catherines
Kitchener South-Hespeler
Cambridge
Essex
Nepean
Kanata-Carleton
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Hastings-Lennox & Addington
Bay of Quinte
Peterborough-Kawartha
Northumberland-Peterborough South

If you compare to the last provincial election, I left out some 416 ridings as I don't think Scheer will perform as well as Ford did in the 416.  Only if Ford actively campaigned for Scheer might he win some of the Ford Nation areas, but by then he will probably be enough of a liability the party will tell him to stay away.  Ajax as well as the two Brampton and three Mississauga ridings I left out had fairly strong vote splits which I doubt Scheer will get and percentage wise he will probably get 3-5% below what Ford got there too.  St. Catherines has always been competitive federally since 2004 so that is why I included it despite Ford no winning it.  Jim Bradley was quite popular personally so it is quite possible the Tories could win many of his personal votes.  London West ironically since 2004 has almost been bang on Ontario results federally for all three parties, but considering the clobbering the PCs got, cannot see them winning here, although I don't think they will do as bad since Andrew Lawton was about the worst candidate possible.  I included Essex since Tory support has pretty consistently save 2014 provincially and 2011 federally been in the high 30s to low 40s so with Liberal support not cratering as much as it did provincially I could see them winning here, although still leans NDP.  Don't see them picking up any of the Northern seats as those were won due to candidate not party.  Ottawa West-Nepean was won on a perfect three way split and again don't see that happening.  The riding has become a lot less favourable to the Tories since John Baird's time.