TX UT-Austin/Texas Tribune: Cruz +5

[Gass3268]

Cruz 41%
O'Rourke 36%

Source

[UWS]

That will definitely be an interesting race, especially in these times of immigration crisis that might have affected the senate contest in Texas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Call me crazy, but this is probably only a couple points too optimistic for O'Rourke.

[Xing]

Interesting that we've gotten so many Texas polls, but hardly any from Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana (I get that polling Indiana is complicated.) I'm standing by my prediction of Cruz by 8 for now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's worth noting that the poll has the Democratic party with a higher favorability than the Republicans.

Democrats: 37/49 -12
Republicans: 35/48 -13

[Galaxie]

It's worth noting that the poll has the Democratic party with a higher favorability than the Republicans.

Democrats: 37/49 -12
Republicans: 35/48 -13

Huh. Is this a new trend?

[henster]

It's worth noting that the poll has the Democratic party with a higher favorability than the Republicans.

Democrats: 37/49 -12
Republicans: 35/48 -13

Doesn't mean that much, we've seen this before of disgruntled Rs not viewing the party favorably because they think it's too establishment or NeverTrumpy.

[Zaybay]

I'm surprised how stable the average has been poll after poll. +8 for Cruz is not good, but not bad enough to lose. Of course, Beto has not really been using his gobs of money in Texas to change anything, while Cruz has been using funds against Beto. I personally think this race will be a close one, but one that Cruz is favored in.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's worth noting that the poll has the Democratic party with a higher favorability than the Republicans.

Democrats: 37/49 -12
Republicans: 35/48 -13

Huh. Is this a new trend?

It is pretty usual for Democrats to do better than you would think, and better than they do in actual elections, in Texas polls - and especially in low quality pols such as the UT/Texas Tribune poll.

The reason for this is that the overall population in Texas is significantly more Democratic than voters are. Even when pollsters make an effort to try to limit their polls to "likely voters," they rarely succeed in completely capturing the actual electorate.

So since the wrong population (i.e. the non-voting population) is polled, polls overstate Democrats in Texas. That will remain the case unless and until voter turnout increases in Texas, which is something that naive people/overoptimistic liberals always incorrectly think is just around the corner.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Cruz isn't DJT. The suburban GOPers in Fort Bend/Montgomery County as well as in Northwest San Antonio are gonna fall back in line and sink O'Rourke (still voting for him, though as Cruz is a feminine hygiene product of the highest degree).

[Politician]

More or less seems like the final result, Lean/Likely R for now.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Lean Cruz

[ON Progressive]

A bit too many undecideds, although the margin is perfectly reasonable.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz isn't DJT. The suburban GOPers in Fort Bend/Montgomery County as well as in Northwest San Antonio are gonna fall back in line and sink O'Rourke (still voting for him, though as Cruz is a feminine hygiene product of the highest degree).

Ofc Cruz wins Montgomery, but I am fairly confident that Beto carries Fort Bend county.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

[cvparty]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

CAN YOU STOP THANKS

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Lean R. Cruz as mentioned before is getting desperate (that fundraising thing disguised as a bill I believe?)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am rooting for Beto, now, it's not impossible, now.

[UWS]

I am rooting for Beto, now, it's not impossible, now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cruz will probably win, but I would take him getting re-elected with an abysmal result like this as a victory still.

[SCNCmod]

To me, this seems like a poll that is likely a correct snapshot of the state of the race...
Cruz favored ... but many still undecided (enough undecided that if Beto were to run a brilliant campaign, he would a the shot at eeking out an upset)

[Golden State Guy]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

CAN YOU STOP THANKS

[wesmoorenerd]

Manchin up 7: Tossup
Cruz up 5: Likely R

smh

[UWS]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

This is like saying that a Democrat like Doug Jones could not have won in Alabama, which is something that actually happened for the first time in 25 years.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

O'Rourke is a strong candidate, but it is simply impossible to be elected statewide as a Democrat in Texas.

This is like saying that a Democrat like Doug Jones could not have won in Alabama, which is something that actually happened for the first time in 25 years.

11, actually.