2020: Tammy Baldwin/Roy Cooper vs Mike Pence/Marco Rubio

[NewYorkExpress]

President Trump announces he won't run for a second term in September of 2019.

Despite speculation of a more crowded GOP primary, the race is essentially a coronation for Vice President Pence, and he selects Marco Rubio as his running mate,

After a tense primary, Democrats nominate Tammy Baldwin, and she selects North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper as her running mate.

Who wins? (Maps welcome).

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Pence/Rubio are slightly better at keeping FL/AZ/NC in the GOP column than Trump/Pence, but a lot worse at holding on to MI/WI/PA, which all flip to Baldwin because Pence can't replicate Trump's appeal to Midwestern whites and Baldwin is from the region.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Pence/Rubio are slightly better at keeping FL/AZ/NC in the GOP column than Trump/Pence, but a lot worse at holding on to MI/WI/PA, which all flip to Baldwin because Pence can't replicate Trump's appeal to Midwestern whites and Baldwin is from the region.

this but flip NC to Baldwin/Cooper. Cooper has high approvals and with a strong enough ticket they can probably flip it, albeit very narrowly.

[Politician]

Tammy Baldwin/Roy Cooper: 293 EV's
Mike Pence/Marco Rubio: 245 EV's

Baldwin flips the rust belt due to her strong appeal there being from a state in that region, while Cooper gets North Carolina for the Dems. Pence holds Florida and Iowa narrowly, and Georgia and Arizona more comfortably.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I could see Pence making an offensive remark about Baldwin's sexuality. That alone could guarantee that she beats him. Pence wouldn't be able to get away with things as easily as Trump does.