AL-SEN 2020: Doug Jones vs. The Entire Political Establishment of Alabama

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

[Alabama_Indy10]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

No. I'm serious.

[YE]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

This, sadly.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Watch Doug Jones vote yes and still lose re-election! Then try and lecture me about idealism! It's Alabama for goodness sakes and he was running against a pedophile! He's not going to get that lucky again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Watch Doug Jones vote yes and still lose re-election! Then try and lecture me about idealism! It's Alabama for goodness sakes and he was running against a pedophile! He's not going to get that lucky again.

It's not just Jones though.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Watch Doug Jones vote yes and still lose re-election! Then try and lecture me about idealism! It's Alabama for goodness sakes and he was running against a pedophile! He's not going to get that lucky again.

That's my exact point. All I originally said was if he wanted a chance at reelection, he needs to vote Yes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

This is an unfortunate reality.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

This is an unfortunate reality.

I would say Romney state Republicans, because Casey and Stabenow are safe regardless.

[Yellowhammer]

I believe the upcoming Supreme Court battle is important to Jones if he wants to have a chance at reelection. IMO, anything short of a Yes vote is political suicide.

That would abandon the very voters who put him there, the black voters who came out at presidential levels to support him.

That is true but white turnout will be up A LOT over 2017 due to it being a presidential year. 2017 was also an incredibly unique situation.

He couldn't win white voters over ROY FREAKING MOORE in 2017, he won't be able to win them in 2020. He needs to double down on his base and hope the Republicans put up another dreadful candidate. Pandering to conservative whites won't win him any votes, but will cost him many.

His base will be at best 40% or so of the electorate, so that won’t get him very far. The only way he wins is if 2020 is 1932 2.0 or if Roy Moore is re-nominated (impossible.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doug Jones, Collins, Ernst and Capito can get reected. If Begich can win AK, Berkowitz can beat Sullivan and Cary Kennedy can beat Gardner and unnamed Dem can win NC against Tillis😀

[Zaybay]

Doug Jones is in an...interesting position. He has a chance to be reelected, but its a narrow one. Like Scott Brown, he needs popularity from the state, and so far, it appears he has a really high approval rating. Second, he needs his base to turnout, which should be no problem with Trump on the ballot. Third, he needs to appeal to moderates, yes they exist in Alabama, and suburbanites. This was done before with Vance. Forth, he has to get a weak opponent, and while the GOP has done some good nominating lately, and the rummored canidate sounds formidable, this is the Alabama GOP we are talking about. Fifth, and most important, Trump needs to lose the election by a margin of about 4-10 points. This would boost up Jones to victory.

I don't like to make predictions this early, I find it pretty hot-taky, so ill rate this a tossup. There's just not enough info on the environment and Doug Jones does not appear DOA, unlike Cory Gardner.

[TJ in Oregon]

Doug Jones is DOA in 2020 unless the Republicans nominate another pedophile. People really underestimate how crazy things have to be for a liberal Dem to win Alabama. He's not going to be a conservative Democrat and I doubt he'll vote for Trump's nominee. Why bother pretending? If he does, that would certainly be a clue that he's trying to make a race of it in 2020.

[smoltchanov]

Likely R. Not hopeless (Jones is a good and relatively moderate, though not sufficiently moderate for conservative Alabama, and Republicans may nominate an extremist), but highly unlikely if Republicans nominate even minimally competent conservative (Byrne?). Under normal circumstances Democratic candidate gets about 38-40% in Alabama (all Blacks plus some liberal and moderate whites), but it's very difficult to get even 45%. All "old school conservative Democrats" and their descendants are Republicans now (in many cases - "as fits white man and honorable white woman").....

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Doug Jones is in an...interesting position. He has a chance to be reelected, but its a narrow one. Like Scott Brown, he needs popularity from the state, and so far, it appears he has a really high approval rating. Second, he needs his base to turnout, which should be no problem with Trump on the ballot. Third, he needs to appeal to moderates, yes they exist in Alabama, and suburbanites. This was done before with Vance. Forth, he has to get a weak opponent, and while the GOP has done some good nominating lately, and the rummored canidate sounds formidable, this is the Alabama GOP we are talking about. Fifth, and most important, Trump needs to lose the election by a margin of about 4-10 points. This would boost up Jones to victory.

I don't like to make predictions this early, I find it pretty hot-taky, so ill rate this a tossup. There's just not enough info on the environment and Doug Jones does not appear DOA, unlike Cory Gardner.

For NC Senate plz be Attorney General Stein.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Scott Brown voted against Elena Kagan and he didn’t face much immediate backlash for it. The double standard is pretty remarkable

you mean dems get systematically held to a completely different set of norms as republicans?? no way

[Blair]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

Have you ever followed a senate whip count before?

The reason why ACA repeal failed is because every democrat was against it, and the pressure was on the swing votes (even people like Portman/Heller etc) what you’’re pros point would basically give Trump and McConnell who they want.

Do you really think a vote on a Supreme Court judge will make an actual difference- they’ll still attack the Dem senators as ‘Schumer/Pelosi Puppets, coastal elites etc’. They won’t give you an easy ride just because you vote for Trumps nominee.

Every liberal candidate that runs in Alabama gets a whopping 38%. All of the successful dems in Alabama have been white DINOs.

Why is that?

Because persuading moderate swing voters WORKS.... better than turning out the base. It doesn't really work very well in Alabama, but it's the best democrats have. Dems have to hope the presidential candidate turns out black people really well so Jones can focus on crossover votes.

Out of interest, where you one of the people who said that Doug Jones would lose because he was pro-choice?

I have a revolutionary idea- Doug Jones should vote against the nominee if he thinks that he shouldn’t be on the court. Forgot the awful, and frankly cynical crap that the useless red state luddites tried in 2010 and 2014.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

Including or not including Stabenow?

[Blair]

There’s no point having democratic senators if you don’t vote against someone who could push the court to the right for the next 40 years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There’s no point having democratic senators if you don’t vote against someone who could push the court to the right for the next 40 years.

It depends from Senator to Senator.
In case of Doug Jones, he has full license to do whatever he wants because he ran and won as a liberal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have a revolutionary idea- Doug Jones should vote against the nominee if he thinks that he shouldn’t be on the court. Forgot the awful, and frankly cynical crap that the useless red state luddites tried in 2010 and 2010

I don't often agree with you, but this x10000000.

[wesmoorenerd]

There’s no point having democratic senators if you don’t vote against someone who could push the court to the right for the next 40 years.

It depends from Senator to Senator.
In case of Doug Jones, he has full license to do whatever he wants because he ran and won as a liberal.

Supreme Court nominations are such a critical, influential, and long term function of the Senate that they should, if anything, be the one reliable vote even vulnerable Senators cast with their party. On the other hand, if the votes (Collins and Murkowski) aren't there, it would probably be foolish to make vulnerable Senators even more vulnerable. I think it boils down to tangible effect. If the votes  from moderate Republicans aren't there, by all means the red state Dems should vote for the nominee. If the votes ARE there, then those red state Dems better vote to block, because otherwise they're completely and utterly useless.

[smoltchanov]

There’s no point having democratic senators if you don’t vote against someone who could push the court to the right for the next 40 years.

It depends from Senator to Senator.
In case of Doug Jones, he has full license to do whatever he wants because he ran and won as a liberal.

Supreme Court nominations are such a critical, influential, and long term function of the Senate that they should, if anything, be the one reliable vote even vulnerable Senators cast with their party. On the other hand, if the votes (Collins and Murkowski) aren't there, it would probably be foolish to make vulnerable Senators even more vulnerable. I think it boils down to tangible effect. If the votes  from moderate Republicans aren't there, by all means the red state Dems should vote for the nominee. If the votes ARE there, then those red state Dems better vote to block, because otherwise they're completely and utterly useless.

Here i fully agree. Your vote must matter... If not - "sticking with the party anyway" is foolishness, if not idiocy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So we should just allow Doug Jones to vote for a Supreme court nominee that will threaten our livelihoods? Are you kidding? If he does that, he doesn't deserve a cent for his re-election bid in 2020. No ifs ands or buts. Besides, he'll lose anyway. In Presidential years, voters tend to split tickets less.

Stop the idealism. All red state dems should vote for President Trump's nominee UNLESS we can get Collins and Murkowski aboard. Otherwise, it is just pointless grandstanding that will only further jeopardize seats.

Including or not including Stabenow?

MI is not really a red state, and she has no opponent that poses any sort of a serious competition, Safe D, so she can do whatever she wants.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Scott Brown voted against Elena Kagan and he didn’t face much immediate backlash for it. The double standard is pretty remarkable

you mean dems get systematically held to a completely different set of norms as republicans?? no way