Calling it Now - Trump wins Re-election

[ElectionsGuy]

Unless and big unless here, Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. Bernie Sanders might be the only person who can beat Donald Trump. But I don't know if he actually ends up running. He would be by far the oldest president ever.

Reason being as to why I think this is, Democrats have nobody exciting or new to run, just the same old ideas by the same politicians. Same thing happened with the Republicans in 2012, they didn't have anybody good to run. Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, same old crap. These millennials are getting older (Gen Z will start to vote in 2020) and the more time goes on the more Bernie-like the base of the party is going to become. Even Warren I don't think can beat Trump.

The economy will ultimately be the reason he gets re-elected. Despite all the negative media coverage of Tweets and stupid stuff he says on a weekly basis, there will be no economic reason the people who voted for him in 2016 will vote for a Democrat in 2020. And he may get some establishment Republican voters back. In addition, we're in an era where a 40%-ish approval rating is good enough if the alternative is worse. Politics is now a lesser of two evils game, Trump may have a below average approval and still win. Polling will be misleading once again and underestimate Trump, and people will have not learned their lesson from 2016. White working class voters will stand behind him once again, and he'll probably win the same states give or take one or two. The only thing that may hinder him in the electoral college is the increasing share of Latino vote that will make Arizona close and Florida even closer.

Dig this up two and a half years from now, and either laugh at me or applaud me, but I won't care either way, it's very unlikely I'll still remember this place by that time. I'm ultimately just posting this to have some courage in my gut, but I genuinely do predict this.

[heatcharger]

Wow, I was wondering why the forum got so much better recently. Sad.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the GOP keeps their majorities in 2018, they will continue to be dogged by Trump, by not properly investigating him.  It may be a silver lining if that happens, because acquittal of Trump during impeachment, from a Pelosi House, would raise Trump's approval.

Trump's not winning reelection, he would have to duplicate his numbers in WI, PA, and MI

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, I doubt that's happening. He only won states like PA by only .7%, and I doubt he's going to gain any votes in 2020.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, I was wondering why the forum got so much better recently. Sad.

hahahaha

It's okay, you won't have to deal with me for much longer.

[Mail-order President]

Yeah, I doubt that's happening. He only won states like PA by only .7%, and I doubt he's going to gain any votes in 2020.

He's going to get most of the typical Republican voters that voted for Johnson/McMullin in 2016.  He will gain votes.

[courts]

White working class voters will stand behind him once again

i'm not sure..i guess as usual it depends heavily on how you define that

[cvparty]

PA, WI, and MI remind me of NC in 2008 - impressive wins that showed an underlying trend, but that are unlikely to be maintained in the immediate next election when the country swings back

[President Johnson]

Unlikely to happen. I think voters will be fed up by Trump in 2020 and vote him out unless the Democratic candidate is complete joke (however, it's unlikely there will be someone with the baggage of Hillary). For these reasons:

- Trump's 2016 path was already very narrow and he's not likely to pick up much support, but lose at least a bit due to demographic changes allone. The Democrats still hold an advantage in the electoral college. All they need to do is winning back the three Rust Belt States or one or two of them in addition to Florida (I think Puerto Rico immigration may have an impact here). I don't see Trump picking up any Hillary 2016 states either. Even if he wins, he wins by less than in 2016.

- While there may not be a recession, Trump's stupid trade war will cost jobs, especially in the regions he's popular (farmers for example).

- His approval is not very likely to move up (Obama was always more popular during his term).

- Let alone the countless scandals that are currently happening and the potential bombshells to come out.

- Democrats will be more excited and turn out more they did in 2016, when everyone assumed Trump can't win the election.

I'm also a little tired of the phrase "Democrats have nobody who excites and therefore a poised to lose". Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as well as Bernie to some degree came out of nowhere or were unknown nationally and did pretty well. So I'm not buying this stuff.

Of course, Trump can get reelected, but it's ridiculous to say Democrats are DOA. At the moment, Trump is far more likely to lose than to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

White working class voters will stand behind him once again

i'm not sure..i guess as usual it depends heavily on how you define that

I would define it by non-college degree whites with middle to lower than average incomes.

I'm also a little tired of the phrase "Democrats have nobody who excites and therefore a poised to lose". Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as well as Bernie to some degree came out of nowhere or were unknown nationally and did pretty well. So I'm not buying this stuff.

Of course, Trump can get reelected, but it's ridiculous to say Democrats are DOA. At the moment, Trump is far more likely to lose than to win.

Every one of those people either had extreme charisma, new ideas, or crossover appeal. I don't see any Democrat that has any of those strengths unless a celebrity runs or something.

[courts]

PA, WI, and MI remind me of NC in 2008 - impressive wins that showed an underlying trend, but that are unlikely to be maintained in the immediate next election when the country swings back

only michigan strikes me as seriously unlikely to hold

[Bojack Horseman]

The economy is a bubble waiting to burst. Once we hit a recession, that will be the final death knell.

[The Mikado]

This is pretty close to an impossible question at this juncture. Even a year from now we'll have a much better idea, as we'll know what Dems are actually running. Certainly Trump could get reelected, but we have no idea what the public's mood will be in 2019, let alone 2020, when the election campaign is actually on.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

EG, I feel like I haven't seen you post in ages! Good to see you!

[here2view]

Bernie Sanders is not the only person who can defeat Trump. And if you had to ask me, I think Trump has about a 45% chance at re-election, so possibly higher than what some other Democrats think. He can certainly win re-election, but Bernie is not the only one who could beat him (I don't even know if he would in 2020, to be honest.)

[RINO Tom]

White working class voters will stand behind him once again

i'm not sure..i guess as usual it depends heavily on how you define that

I would define it by non-college degree whites with middle to lower than average incomes.

I'm also a little tired of the phrase "Democrats have nobody who excites and therefore a poised to lose". Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as well as Bernie to some degree came out of nowhere or were unknown nationally and did pretty well. So I'm not buying this stuff.

Of course, Trump can get reelected, but it's ridiculous to say Democrats are DOA. At the moment, Trump is far more likely to lose than to win.

Every one of those people either had extreme charisma, new ideas, or crossover appeal. I don't see any Democrat that has any of those strengths unless a celebrity runs or something.

The fact that we don't define "White working class" as Whites below a certain income level is truly ridiculous.  Trump almost unquestionably did better among wealthy WWC voters than lower to middle-income ones that you seem to insinuate were his best demographic.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Oh.

[Politician]

I actually agree, he wins with slightly more than in 2016, flipping Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and holding all his own states. Biden, Brown, Sanders and Bullock can beat him, Harris, Booker, Warren, Gillibrand would be tossups, Cuomo, McAuliffe, Hickenlooper would lose landslides.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Unlikely to happen. I think voters will be fed up by Trump in 2020 and vote him out unless the Democratic candidate is complete joke (however, it's unlikely there will be someone with the baggage of Hillary). For these reasons:

I consider you a quality poster, so I think I owe you a quality rebuttal. I'll do my best.

- Trump's 2016 path was already very narrow and he's not likely to pick up much support, but lose at least a bit due to demographic changes allone. The Democrats still hold an advantage in the electoral college. All they need to do is winning back the three Rust Belt States or one or two of them in addition to Florida (I think Puerto Rico immigration may have an impact here). I don't see Trump picking up any Hillary 2016 states either. Even if he wins, he wins by less than in 2016.

I think it is too early to tell what the Puerto Ricans are going to do here in Florida. I really haven't felt their presence at all, though they mostly have concentrated in the I-4 corrider. Time will tell. You aren't objectively wrong that his path to victory may shrink in some states (particularly WI, PA) due to suburban women moving away, but I think the good economy will keep them on board as EG stated.

- While there may not be a recession, Trump's stupid trade war will cost jobs, especially in the regions he's popular (farmers for example).

A lot of these people voted for him because of the tariffs; there is a psychological factor here at play that I've never witnessed before and probably never will again - that is that Trump is "Teflon Don." All he needs to do are a few mega-rallies (maybe fly in Sarah Palin and Christie and some other popular cheerleaders to help with the circus atmosphere that is a Trump rally) in these states to pump up his base and they'll turn out.

Trump voters are way more intelligent than given credit for (not by you, but by other red avatars certainly), and are very tactical minded. Look at the G7 for example, where Trump said "how about we just have no tariffs at all then." He basically called the other western leaders bluff and made them reveal that they had no good cards in their hand. A lot of Trump voters I've talked to since then - in and out of my family, many of whom are borderline apolitical now due to the media - all thought that was brilliant. They understand the complexities and I think the good nature of the economy will offset anger over lost jobs.

- His approval is not very likely to move up (Obama was always more popular during his term).

Trump and Obama are not comparable, and that is a strategic mistake that I think the Democrats are making bigly. Trump doesn't need a high approval rating to win reelection. You can disapprove of him and still vote for him, as we saw happen in massive numbers in 2016, if a) the candidate is weak or hilariously bad like Hillary, or b) the economy remains strong.

People like my dad, for example, would normally be inclined to vote against Trump a second time. My mom also complains often about Trump's antics. But my dad is prospering at his business more than ever right now, and my mom has developed an extreme hatred of the Parkland kids and has become a gun-nut out of nowhere for some reason (despite her refusal to actually touch a gun on the rare occasions when her younger brother is around - he packs heat now too).

So between the rapidly worsening cultural war, and the good economy, Trump should have the ability to basically SwiftBoat his rival, unless the said rival is Bernie.

- Let alone the countless scandals that are currently happening and the potential bombshells to come out.

Nobody can even keep up anymore. The Democrats oversaturated their best asset. Remember when Stormy Daniels was a thing?

- Democrats will be more excited and turn out more they did in 2016, when everyone assumed Trump can't win the election.

What isn't being reported is that Republicans are even more fervently ready to turn out, as the entire Trump Presidency has played out with a siege mentality in his voters mind. And rightfully so, as the Mueller plot continue to slowly fracture.

I'm also a little tired of the phrase "Democrats have nobody who excites and therefore a poised to lose". Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama as well as Bernie to some degree came out of nowhere or were unknown nationally and did pretty well. So I'm not buying this stuff.

Of course, Trump can get reelected, but it's ridiculous to say Democrats are DOA. At the moment, Trump is far more likely to lose than to win.

No, Democrats aren't necessarily DOA, but they haven't demonstrated anything to show they've learned from their 2016 mistakes.

[krazen1211]

Millions of voters will flee the Democratic party and enter the GOP.

[here2view]

Millions of voters will flee the Democratic party and enter the GOP.

Just like Steve Schmidt, right?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Millions of voters will flee the Democratic party and enter the GOP.

Just like Steve Schmidt, right?

There are more poor whites who voted for Obama and ditched and switched to Trump than there are failed campaign strategists like Steve Schmidt and Nicole Wallace. You know that right?

[krazen1211]

Millions of voters will flee the Democratic party and enter the GOP.

Just like Steve Schmidt, right?

Steve Schmidt is the campaign genius that lost Indiana for the GOP for the first and only time since 1964. You can have him....but are you sure you even want him?

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Can we stop it with this "THE ECONOMY WILL GROW FOREVER AND TRUMP IS BOUND FOR A 53 STATE LANDSLIDE!!!!"

History tells us there will probably be recession between now and November 2020. I doubt we are going to beat the 91-01 record of growth.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm 50-50 on whether he wins or not. I probably won't feel confident until November 2020, one way or the other. I don't want to underestimate him again or rule out the low expectations that American voters have set for him but I also can't ignore how he only barely won on a technicality and succeeded primarily due to timing and luck.