KFYR-TV/Mason-Dixon: Cramer +4

[Skye]

Senator Rick Berg is proof that polls in June are always right

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_berg_vs_heitkamp-3212.html

The Mason-Dixon poll of June in 2012 showed Heitkamp winning by 1 point lmao.

[TheSaint250]

Well, that's two polls showing Heitkamp behind. MD may be crap but it's what we've got to work with.

I believe it's the same poll posted twice.

[Skye]

Well, that's two polls showing Heitkamp behind. MD may be crap but it's what we've got to work with.

No, it's the same poll.

[Brittain33]

D'oh. Ok.

[Person Man]

How was polling in ND's races in the 2000s and 2012? I'm aware that it's not known for good polling. Much like many northern states, ND has trended R big time (although part of it is due to the oil boom I'll admit) but it has also re-elected Democrats in landslides at the senate level. Also what kind of pollster is KFYR-TV?

Sean Trende said Berg would win by 6.

But has there ever been an election where the minority party won the House PV by a considerable amount still lost Senate seats?

I looked up 1996 and was surprised that Dems only won the PV narrowly even while Clinton destroyed Dole. I suspect you knew that which is why you added "a considerable amount."

I think biggest margin was when the Republicans won by 3 in either 42 or 44 and yet were still in minority.

[Brittain33]

How was polling in ND's races in the 2000s and 2012? I'm aware that it's not known for good polling. Much like many northern states, ND has trended R big time (although part of it is due to the oil boom I'll admit) but it has also re-elected Democrats in landslides at the senate level. Also what kind of pollster is KFYR-TV?

Sean Trende said Berg would win by 6.

But has there ever been an election where the minority party won the House PV by a considerable amount still lost Senate seats?

I looked up 1996 and was surprised that Dems only won the PV narrowly even while Clinton destroyed Dole. I suspect you knew that which is why you added "a considerable amount."

I think biggest margin was when the Republicans won by 3 in either 42 or 44 and yet were still in minority.

Yeah. If you go further back than the 1960s, you get Democrats winning uncontested or in districts where few people had the right to vote in the south and a national popular vote becomes misleading.

[Pollster]

Not sure if this has been posted, but here are further toplines and crosstabs:

http://media.graytvinc.com/images/POLLS+1.PNG
http://media.graytvinc.com/images/POLLS+2.PNG
http://media.graytvinc.com/images/POLLS+3.PNG

Cramer with a 4 point lead in an n=625 poll suggests an incredibly tight race assuming an accurate sample.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a tossup. It always has been.

[Former Kentuckian]

Senator Rick Berg is proof that polls in June are always right

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_berg_vs_heitkamp-3212.html

The Mason-Dixon poll of June in 2012 showed Heitkamp winning by 1 point lmao.

And the Mason-Dixon poll in late October 2012 showed Berg ahead by two.

Heitkamp is within the margin of error in this poll. It's a tossup, nothing has changed. It will all come down to turnout in November as always.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cramer probably wins, but it will be close

[Senator Cris]

Still toss-up.