KFYR-TV/Mason-Dixon: Cramer +4

[Calthrina950]

This is definitely a tossup, and may even be Lean Republican. But we will have to see more polls before that kind of determination can be made. It is still possible that Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill (and maybe even Nelson), all lose. I don't think that will happen, given the environment, but I would not be surprised if one or two out of that group (which would also include Tester and Manchin), lost, even as Democrats did well elsewhere. Polarization has become a really defining feature of so many of these states.

[jamestroll]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

June 2017: McCaskill is DOA.. and Nelson and Heitkamp are safe.

June 2018: McCaskill is ahead in polls and Nelson and Heitkamp are trailing.

November 2018: One of those three probably lose.

December 2018: Everyone will argue about the 2020 elections

[BudgieForce]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

Heitkamp is a great campaigner, 2012 is proof of that. But I think some people here were getting ahead of themselves. This is still North Dakota after all, and the shale oil boom has definitely helped make this state even redder. But if Heidi wins, it'll be because she is amazing at retail politics. And if she wins, it'll be by a very slim margin.

[BudgieForce]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

IKR, lmao, Cramer wins 53-45.

It wont be by such a wide margin. Thsi race will be decided within 1 to 2 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Donnelly and Heidi are definitely, now the most vulnerable.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

[john cage bubblegum]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

IKR, lmao, Cramer wins 53-45.

It's quite amazing the reactions you get on Atlas to a single poll.  I know polling is scarce in a lot of these races, but yeesh. 

This race was a toss-up before this poll, and it's a toss-up now.  She's clearly in the top tier of endangered incumbents.  Heidi is a very good politician with a solid statewide brand, which is why she is competitive in a Trump +36 state.  Given the national environment, I think it's more likely than not that Heitkamp pulls it out, but this is a very tough race to pinpoint.

[KingSweden]

Natl security and guns are cultural issues as well. It was a breakthrough with Korean nukes.

Are you a bot or something? Absolutely none of this makes sense

Ah I see you just met OC. No, he’s not a bot.

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

IKR, lmao, Cramer wins 53-45.

It's quite amazing the reactions you get on Atlas to a single poll.  I know polling is scarce in a lot of these races, but yeesh. 

This race was a toss-up before this poll, and it's a toss-up now.  She's clearly in the top tier of endangered incumbents.  Heidi is a very good politician with a solid statewide brand, which is why she is competitive in a Trump +36 state.  Given the national environment, I think it's more likely than not that Heitkamp pulls it out, but this is a very tough race to pinpoint.

Well said.

[Xing]

Natl security and guns are cultural issues as well. It was a breakthrough with Korean nukes.

Are you a bot or something?

Welcome to Atlas!

[Maxwell]

lol the stark range of reactions is amazing.

It's a bit of an underwhelming poll but within the reasonable range of a competitive race, which is what this is.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Not suspicious at all that certain (atlas) blue posters above posted replies within minutes of each other...

At any rate, this race has always been a tossup and I'm honestly not surprised by this poll. Despite Heitkamp's personal appeal, North Dakota's swung even more to the Republicans since 2012 when she was last elected, and this midterm will test her ability to hold down liberal Dems, Native Americans, and win over seemingly increasingly-rare crossover Republican voters in order to win reelection. But you really do have to wonder what sort of effect the tariffs will have once the retaliation actually starts hitting home. Trump may have built up a personality cult, but when their livelihoods are in severe danger, North Dakota farmers are going to have to wake up at some point. If I was forced to bet, I'd still bet on Heitkamp.

Look below your original post. 3 D's and a socialist posted in a row. Spooky stuff

[YE]

How was polling in ND's races in the 2000s and 2012? I'm aware that it's not known for good polling. Much like many northern states, ND has trended R big time (although part of it is due to the oil boom I'll admit) but it has also re-elected Democrats in landslides at the senate level. Also what kind of pollster is KFYR-TV?

[Pollster]

Premature to make any fuss over a poll that doesn't disclose its sample size (a 4 point lead in a 300 person poll is very different than a 4 point lead in a 1000 person poll). Margin of error is critical, folks.

Would also be helpful to see crosstabs by party ID, 2016 vote, and Trump approval - especially among undecideds.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

[Person Man]

How was polling in ND's races in the 2000s and 2012? I'm aware that it's not known for good polling. Much like many northern states, ND has trended R big time (although part of it is due to the oil boom I'll admit) but it has also re-elected Democrats in landslides at the senate level. Also what kind of pollster is KFYR-TV?

Sean Trende said Berg would win by 6.

But has there ever been an election where the minority party won the House PV by a considerable amount still lost Senate seats?

[henster]

Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin, McCaskill, and Nelson are the most vulnerable in that order. My guess is 3 out of 5 go down.

[Person Man]

Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin, McCaskill, and Nelson are the most vulnerable in that order. My guess is 3 out of 5 go down.

Right now Bredesen is up and so is Rosen and Sinema. I can see it being a wash in an election where Democrats win 30 seats or even 40 seats in the house.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This can't be right because it is inconsistent with my signature. Junk poll!

[AtorBoltox]

Senator Rick Berg is proof that polls in June are always right

[LimoLiberal]

http://www.valleynewslive.com/content/news/New-poll-shows-close-race-for-US-Senate-Race-in-North-Dakota-485856391.html

Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D) - 44
Kevin Cramer (R) - 48

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For all those screaming Rick Berg, Cramer a helluva lot better candidate than Berg LMAO. I stand by my call of Strong Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ND is a R friendly state

[Politician]

Still Lean D.

[Brittain33]

How was polling in ND's races in the 2000s and 2012? I'm aware that it's not known for good polling. Much like many northern states, ND has trended R big time (although part of it is due to the oil boom I'll admit) but it has also re-elected Democrats in landslides at the senate level. Also what kind of pollster is KFYR-TV?

Sean Trende said Berg would win by 6.

But has there ever been an election where the minority party won the House PV by a considerable amount still lost Senate seats?

I looked up 1996 and was surprised that Dems only won the PV narrowly even while Clinton destroyed Dole. I suspect you knew that which is why you added "a considerable amount."

[Brittain33]

Well, that's two polls showing Heitkamp behind. MD may be crap but it's what we've got to work with.