KFYR-TV/Mason-Dixon: Cramer +4

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cramer: 48%
Heitkamp: 44%
http://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/KFYR-TVs-Mason-Dixon-poll-shows-Cramer-Heitkamp-Senate-race-is-close-485868531.html

[Young Conservative]

Tossup, as expected by non-Heitkamphacks.

[UWS]

Great! After a few weeks that were disastrous for Cramer, there is still hope for him in North Dakota.

[krazen1211]

I like this poll because Cramer is ahead!

[BudgieForce]

Its gonna be a close one.

[Ebsy]

Polls in 2012 drastically underestimated Heitkamp.

[BBD]

Not suspicious at all that certain (atlas) blue posters above posted replies within minutes of each other...

At any rate, this race has always been a tossup and I'm honestly not surprised by this poll. Despite Heitkamp's personal appeal, North Dakota's swung even more to the Republicans since 2012 when she was last elected, and this midterm will test her ability to hold down liberal Dems, Native Americans, and win over seemingly increasingly-rare crossover Republican voters in order to win reelection. But you really do have to wonder what sort of effect the tariffs will have once the retaliation actually starts hitting home. Trump may have built up a personality cult, but when their livelihoods are in severe danger, North Dakota farmers are going to have to wake up at some point. If I was forced to bet, I'd still bet on Heitkamp.

[mds32]

Its gonna be a close one.

With Trump's approvals standing at -6 nationally I'd peg him at +10 in ND. So he'd probably get involved and help Cramer. I'd say Tilt R.

[heatcharger]

There are no suburbs let alone urban centers in this state for Democrats to run it up in. That's how McCaskill, Donnelly, and Brown can survive while Heitkamp loses. Very bad terrain for a Democrat in 2018, as is MT.

[LorneArmstrong20015]

Heidi won’t lose

[BudgieForce]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_berg_vs_heitkamp-3212.html

I have faith.

[Skye]

It's a Mason-Dixon poll, btw.

[BudgieForce]

I think Democrats should tamper expectations and be surprised when she wins, just like 2012.

[Xing]

But I thought Heitkamp wasn't vulnerable! She may be able to survive thanks to the environment, but clearly this is a Toss-Up, even if Cramer is a flawed candidate.

There are no suburbs let alone urban centers in this state for Democrats to run it up in. That's how McCaskill, Donnelly, and Brown can survive while Heitkamp loses. Very bad terrain for a Democrat in 2018, as is MT.

I'd say ND is worse, since at least MT has Missoula.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL and ND Leans R .

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll is already in the database and yet the Franklin & Marshall polls still aren't punched in?

[KingSweden]

Its gonna be a close one.

[heatcharger]

There are no suburbs let alone urban centers in this state for Democrats to run it up in. That's how McCaskill, Donnelly, and Brown can survive while Heitkamp loses. Very bad terrain for a Democrat in 2018, as is MT.

I'd say ND is worse, since at least MT has Missoula.

True. There and Bozeman seem primed to deliver votes for a Democrat in the current national mood. But both states have very little else outside of minute reservations for Democrats. The rural white vote simply crashed to nearly nonexistent in both states in 2016, and both had oil migration that changed the electorate in favor of Republicans.

Democrats have had success in the post-2016 national environment, and that's mostly predicated on doing very well, like, historically well in suburbs, continuing to run it up in urban cores, as well as reaching some kind of equilibrium between Obama and Clinton in rural areas. Problem is this is still a losing formula in such a rural state like ND and maybe MT.

[Pericles]

Unsurprising.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Natl security and guns are cultural issues as well. It was a breakthrough with Korean nukes.

[Devout Centrist]

Natl security and guns are cultural issues as well. It was a breakthrough with Korean nukes.

Are you a bot or something? Absolutely none of this makes sense

[Arkansas Yankee]

The Republican is ahead.  It’s bogus in this Democratic year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These races are gonna be very tight

[Person Man]

Who do you think is of a higher SES?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Atlas told me ND was Likely D because of Heitkamp’s retail politics though

IKR, lmao, Cramer wins 53-45.