Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[PSOL]

I tend to avoid talking about Italian politics lately, given its sad state right now, but it's only fair to give an update on the situation.

POLLS

Lega - 30,8% (17,4% in March GE)
Movimento 5 Stelle - 26,2% (32,7%)
PD - 17,1% (18,8%)
Forza Italia - 9,4% (14%)
Fratelli d'Italia - 3,9% (4,4%)
Liberi e Uguali - 2,6% (3,4%)
+Europa - 2,4% (2,6%)
Potere al Popolo - 2% (1,1%)

Threshold is at 3%

Lega keeps growing at an astonishing pace, at the expense of the M5S and its (former?) ally, Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The center-right bloc (Lega-Forza Italia-Fratelli d'Italia) would easily have an absolute majority [only 40% or so is necessary, given the electoral law mixing PR (66%) and uninominal seats (33%)], and there is talk that the next GE might be at the same time as the European Elections in May.
This is in part due to Salvini being costantly at the center of the stage, and making good (at least in the media) on his promises to stop immigration, while the M5S has lots of difficulties in claryifying who will benefit from its universal basic income proposal, and specifying its details.

PD has remained more or less costant, which is not too bad given how it's been waiting for the new congress ever since March (more on this below), while Potere al Popolo (which try to resemble Melenchon's France Insoumise) is trying to become the left's main party at the expense of Liberi e Uguali (which might not even be a thing anymore, since its components, Sinistra Italiana, former communists, and MDP, former members of PD, have fought very bitterly).

PD CONGRESS

After Renzi's resignation as secretary following the GE disaster, there's been lots of speculation about the future of PD. Now, the path to the next congress, and the open primaries to elect the new secretary, is officially on. The primaries should be at the beginning of March (possibly on the 3rd of March, 364 days after the last general elections...).
Renzi will not run, to the disappointment of his die-hard fans (which are still a good chunk of PD's members).
Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, is the frontrunner, trying to shift PD to the left and pretty much attacking everything that was done by PD under Renzi's leadership. Around Zingaretti there is a colition of the former minority and some of Renzi's supporters, such as former PM Gentiloni and former PD Secretary Franceschini (whose political history is based on jumping on the bandwagon).
Zingaretti is not very charismatic, and his main pros are the fact that he announced his candidacy early (the day after winning the regional elections, which were also on March 4th), and that many feel the need to move on after Renzi.

The more reformist candidates are Minniti, Martina and Richetti.
Minniti, former Minister of Interior, is known for the treaties signed with Libya concerning checks on migration and camps to contain those trying to sail towards Italy. Admittedly, at its peak and without any help from the EU, the migration crisis needed some kind of control, but his political platform is pretty much based on migration. Those who think that the only way to stop Salvini is to stop immigration support him, other are very tepid. Many of Renzi's supporters will support him.

Martina, former minister of Agriculture and at-interim secretary from March until now, is a more intermediate candidate between Zingaretti and Minniti. Nannicini, economist and Renzi's chief economic advisor, Orfini (PD's president), and Delrio (former Minister of Infrastructure and current PD whip in the House of Representatives) are amongst his main supporters.
Nannicini summarized Martina's platform as "pride and restlessness", therefore not wanting to do an U-turn on the work done by the PD-led governments in the last 5 years, while also being aware that the political situation is extremely serious, that errors were made and there need to be changes.
Martina's first proposal is to abolish the Bossi-Fini law which destroyed the management of legal immigration flows. This is in stark contrast to Minniti's approach. He's personally my favourite right now, if anything because he acknowledges the need to avoid the primary simply being a pro vs anti Renzi referendum, which would lead to nothing.

Lastly, Richetti is an unorthodox Renzi supporter, who has always tried to distinguish himself, at least in form if not in substance. He's running as the youngish candidate, but there has been very little policy-wise from him, and now that Martina is running as a more credible unorthodox Renzi supporter, there is talk that the two may join forces (as openly stated by Martina).

Amongst minor candidates, there are Boccia, representing the more openly pro-M5S wing which responds to Puglia's governor Emiliano; Damiano, left-wing former minister who may eventually support Zingaretti, and Corallo, a 30-year old from the youth organization who made a name for himself with controversial remarks on the social media against the party's leadership (and whom I know personally since he's from my .

Latest polls have it as:
Zingaretti 33%
Minniti 25%
Martina 15%
Richetti 8%
Boccia 4%
Damiano 2%
Corallo 1%

There will be two rounds of voting. The first one is for members-only, and the top three will then go to the open primaries. There, one needs 50%+1 of the votes in order to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly, otherwise the next secretary will be voted by the Assembly (thus leaving the door open to a deal between the second and third-placed, an "accusation" that Zingaretti is already throwing around).

What’s the situation on the ground with the EU-Italian budget negotiations? How has that affected polls?

[PSOL]

Italian Fascists round armed with Surface Air-to-Air Missiles, other assortments of weaponry

[PSOL]

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

[PSOL]

If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting in this joke of a political climate. I say this knowing that a right-wing government is on the door, but given Italy is ungovernable I doubt they last long.

All of Italy’s political establishment is junk, complete junk. The actual Italian left is a complete failure for not organizing a cohesive ticket together.

[PSOL]

If I was an Italian voter I would abstain from voting

Good.

Well now I’m voting for LeU.

[PSOL]

I see the coalition of chaos is forming, let’s see if they flop as hard as NUPES or like the Hungarian mess.

A lot of these party leaders are so out of touch with their own voters, no wonder the edgy fashies are going to win hard.

[PSOL]

After some time thinking, I will not be abstaining this election, as my vote has the impact of tanking most of the centrist grifter parties and completely breaking PD’s ability to regroup once and for all, allowing better organizations to have breathing room.

I am voting for the UP alliance on account of them being the least s•••e option on being the least likely to join the governing coalition and being right there in tanking the centrist party. The PCI, one of the strongest in Europe in the past, has completely gone full stupid in adopting left-populism. It is time to crash this M5S driven-train with no survivors.

[PSOL]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

[PSOL]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

So, because you want the impending hard-right government, arguably Italy's first since World War II, to have as big a majority as possible.

The next government’s seat count has no bearing on these objectives

I am certain that PSOL will be voting for no one, lmao.

I found it inside my pasta this morning, I had accidentally dropped it with the meatballs

[PSOL]

I’m not voting for them to win, I’m voting for them to make sure that other parties don’t cross the threshold.

You would like to vote for a microparty to stop another microparty from crossing the threshold? What other parties are you even talking about?

The parties polling 4% or lower on the latest EMG poll

Also I am supporting Unita Populare, the other UP.