Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As I had anticipated, yesterday and today there was the mayoral runoff in Udine. The results are out and incumbent Fontanini was defeated by Alberto De Toni 53-47, so that is a pick-up for the centre-left. A harbinger of what's to come in May, or a fluke? Who knows.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Since it is less than a month till the municipal elections and the lists and candidates have been finalized I should post a rundown in the immediate future, although this cycle is probably the least high-profile of the five. In partially related news we have some Molise regional polling, most of which takes as a given that the hideously unpopular incumbent Donato Toma will not be renominated by the right. A PD-M5S alliance on the centre-left should be competitive but is shown to be on the losing side in most scenarios.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

As promised, here I am for my regular municipal election rundown. Part 1.

Once again special status regions are going Their Own Way, so in addition to FVG which has already passed, Trentino-Alto Adige and the Aosta Valley will have the first round of municipal elections on May 21 and Sicily and Sardinia will have it on May 28 and 29. Comuni in the rest of Italy will vote on May 14 and 15, as always for all of these the eventual runoff would be two weeks after the first round.

CATANIA (May 28/29)
The previous incumbent Salvo Pogliese was elected Senator with FdI last September so he will not run again. After various deliberations and competing partisan proposals the Right converged on the ex assessore Enrico Trantino, while PD, M5S and AVS have chosen Maurizio Caserta, professor of political economy at the University of Catania. Azione-Italia Viva were supposed to run Lanfranco Zappalà, also supported by a "Democrazia Cristiana" that is not the "Democrazia Cristiana Sicilia" of Cuffaro (you can't make this stuff up really) but Calenda vetoed him so things are unclear now. Also in the run are our old friends of Sud Chiama Nord and various independent candidates, but they're unlikely to make a splash. As a reminder in Sicily you just need 40% to avoid a runoff - history and some sparse polling suggest Trantino can clear the bar, but it's unlikely to be a blowout like 2018.

BRESCIA (May 14/15)
The extremely popular PD incumbent Emilio Del Bono was not eligible for a third term but was already elected regional councillor with a landslide of preferences two months ago. Vying to replace him for his political side is his deputy Laura Castelletti, also supported by SI, EV and A/IV. The Five Star Movement is instead running separately, supporting writer Alessandro Lucà (together with Unione Popolare and some communists). The Right is united behind Fabio Rolfi, also a former deputy mayor and regional councillor. I can't find race polling but if the election is going to be a referendum on the outgoing administration Castelletti should have little trouble.

LATINA (May 14/15)
This is a crazy story if there ever was one. Damiano Coletta was elected in 2016 in a rather strange manner, then he was re-elected in 2021 despite losing the first round by a significant amount and despite the right-wing coalition getting an absolute majority of votes for city council (denying Coletta a majority prize and turning him into a lame duck). However the regional tribunal found irregularities in the first round and ordered the election to be repeated in twenty-two precincts in 2022 and the office to be vacated. The rerun wasn't enough to swing the first round and since the runoff was not affected by the court decision, Coletta could return to the mayoralty. At that point though the right-wing majority in the city council simply passed a motion of no confidence in him precipitating a snap election. Perhaps as a result of electoral fatigue, there are only two candidates this year: Coletta, supported by the centre-left plus M5S, and councillor Matilde Celentano for the right.

ANCONA (May 14/15)
I was going in order of population but I decided to skip Vicenza and Terni to get directly to the only regional seat voting this year... I am actually shocked Ancona has fewer than 100k people, but anyway. The incumbent mayor Valeria Mancinelli (PD) is not eligible after winning twice with a huge margin. The PD is running to replace her assessora Ida Simonella, but while she has the backing of A/IV the rest of the 'progressive' forces are entirely splintered - M5S (Enrico Sparapani), EV (Roberto Rubegni) and SI (Francesco Rubini, also supported by a plethora of forces on the extreme left) are all going separately. On the right, Simonella's main opponent is Daniele Silvetti, a lawyer and provincial coordinator of Forza Italia. There is one poll and it has Simonella and Silvetti neck and neck. I should note that Ancona is one of few cities which have only had centre-left mayors since direct elections began in 1993, so a flip would be quite notable.

PISA (May 14/15)
Ending part 1 with my "second city" (that is, where my university is). Incumbent Michele Conti became its first directly elected centre-right mayor in 2018, an incredible result in a university town in the heart of the Red Regions. PD, M5S and AVS are running against him Paolo Martinelli, previously provincial president of ACLI (Italian Workers' Christian Associations). Azione/IV are naturally going alone with ex councillor Rita Mariotti but the couple polls we have suggest she should be easily beaten for third place by the radical left candidate Ciccio Auletta. The same polls have Martinelli narrowly beating Conti.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/frankiehinrgmc/status/1647206590867464192

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

https://twitter.com/frankiehinrgmc/status/1647206590867464192

The man, the artist! Always relevant:

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Part 2. Other cities in random order depending on what I find more interesting or notable.

VICENZA (May 14/15)
Rightist incumbent Francesco Rucco is seeking a second term against PD regional councillor Giacomo Possamai, supported by A/IV but not the M5S, which is going alone with Edoardo Bortolotto. The polls for this election are pretty tight, like the 2018 election was. Strangely enough there was no Five Star candidate here last time, which makes Vicenza a very rare place where the party will "improve" no matter what.

TREVISO (May 14/15)
Another medium Veneto city with a rightist incumbent (Mario Conte) running again... in this case the PD candidate (Giorgio De Nardi) is a local entrepreneur and not only the M5S (Maurizio Mestriner) but also Azione-Italia Viva (Nicolò Rocco) are not supporting him. Presumably a lot harder for the opposition.

SIRACUSA (May 28/29)
The largest city I have not covered yet. The incumbent Francesco Italia, deputy mayor from 2013 to 2018, then elected mayor as a centre-left independent and now a member of Azione since 2019, is seeking a second term but is again lacking the support of any other established party. PD and M5S and AVS are running together with Renata Giunta, an ex coordinator of the anti-Mafia association Libera, while Italia Viva supports Francesco Italia's predecessor Giancarlo Garozzo, who was in the PD during his term but joined Renzi's party upon its foundation. On the other side the Right coalition supports former assessore Ferdinando Messina but the UdC's Edy Bandiera looks poised to also conquer many votes. Being Sicily there's also a candidate for Sud Chiama Nord. One poll was published and while Giunta and Messina were the top two it showed an extremely divided field, so anything could happen.

SIENA (May 14/15)
Speaking of divided fields... The incumbent Luigi De Mossi had a very narrow win in 2018 to become Siena's first directly elected mayor from the right, in a city that is even more in the heart of the Red Regions than Pisa, but his coalition decided not to run him again and so he's thrown his support behind Italia Viva's Massimo Castagnini. The Right's candidate is instead Nicoletta Fabio, among other things a previous rector of the magistrate of the contrade [i.e. president of the organism that rules their activity and helps the Palio organization]. Azione is running separately from IV with Roberto Bozzi and M5S is also running alone with Elena Boldrini, and both of them are outside of the PD-led coalition of ex assessora Anna Ferretti. There's also an independent candidate, Fabio Pacciani, who had fairly strong support in the one poll we have, just behind Ferretti and Fabio. Though as I alluded to in the beginning, that means not even 20%. I think the centre-left can be confident in a runoff but once again, things are unpredictable.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Part 3, sort of, just to highlight two funny situations I have been thinking about.

Massa is another Tuscan city which elected a centre-right mayor for the first time in the contemporary era in 2018, Francesco Persiani. However, a few months ago the city council voted a motion of no confidence in Persiani, as he lost the support of parts of his coalition, chiefly Fratelli d'Italia. As a result, he is running for re-election with FI and Lega but not FdI and Noi Moderati (lol), who are instead running Marco Guidi, previously a member of the Persiani administration. On the left we have PD, AVS and A/IV together for Enzo Ricci but the M5S going separately, with UP, for Daniela Bennati.

In Brindisi the centre-left incumbent Riccardo Rossi fell out with the PD and is running again with only the support of Europa Verde, which he joined last year... while the PD and the M5S are in a coalition together against him, supporting Roberto Fusco. On the right there is unity in support of Giuseppe Marchionna, a true veteran of politics - he has already been mayor of Brindisi from 1990 to 1992 when he was still in the PSI. Much hilarity on the whole.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

There's still a lot to count and no sure results yet (although we can already say Treviso is a right-wing hold) but turnout overall at the local elections was 59%, which is slightly down compared to 2018 but I believe somewhat higher than all cycles since.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Coletta is massively going down in Latina, ending his trajectory in as peculiar a manner as it started, while Brescia is a comfortable centre-left hold like I had predicted. In smaller provincial seats the Right holds Sondrio and Imperia. Everything else will go to a runoff or is still uncertain. The overall "vibe" doesn't seem to favour significantly one side or the other, honestly.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Now we have official results about everywhere for the local elections.

Brescia and Treviso as I said above are easy holds for the left and right respectively; Vicenza and Ancona are going to a runoff after a very competitive first round, while Pisa is also going to a runoff but the incumbent Michele Conti was only a dozen votes away from clinching an absolute majority. Also as I said above, Latina is returning to its right-wing roots with Coletta spectacularly failing to even cross 30%, though this is not as big of a flop for an incumbent as Riccardo Rossi in Brindisi, who somehow managed to get fourth and last beaten by independent Pasquale Luperto (there will be an "ordinary" left vs right runoff with Fusco and Marchionna). Siena will also have an ordinary runoff but as anticipated both Fabio and Ferretti start from low totals, and the same goes for Massa between Persiani and Ricci. On the other hand the PD candidate Josè Maria Kenny was shut out of the second round in Terni...

In terms of lists all recent trends have been confirmed: continued irrelevance of the Five Star Movement, a Third Pole struggling to break through at all, Fratelli d'Italia as the clear leader of the Right, the Democratic Party having the most loyal electorate.

[FrancoAgo]

As usual
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., and regional capital

Latina
Right 70,7%
Center-left+M5S 29,3%

Brescia
Center-left 54,8%
Right 41,7%
an other 2 candidates 3,5%

Ancona
Right 45,1% to Run-off ->51,7% (gain the endorsement of a 2,2% candidate)
Center-left 41,3% to run-off ->48,3%
Left 6,1%
M5S 3,6%
an other 2 candidates 3,9%

Terni
Right 35,8% to run-off ->45,4%
Center-(right) 28,1% to run-off (he owned a online university and the city soccer team)->54,6%
Center-left 21,9%
M5S+Left 10,8%
an other 3 candidates 3,4%

Vicenza
Center-left 46,2% to run-off-> 50,5%
Right 44,1% to run-off->49,5% (gain the endorsement of a 2,6% candidate)
an other 5 candidates 9,7%

add sicilian municipality

Catania
Right 66,2%
Center-left +M5S 24,6%
Centrist-populist-autonomist 4%
an other 4 candidates 5,2%

Siracusa
Right 32,2% to run-off
Centrist (Azione) 23,9% to run-off
Center-left+M5S 19,4%
Center-right (FI dissident) 9%
Centrist (IV) 8,3%
Localist 3,6%
an other 2 candidates 3,6%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Local election runoffs today (and tomorrow), turnout is significantly down compared to the first round. It seems somewhat stronger in Sicily, where municipalities are voting for the first round instead.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Local election polls have closed. Turnout in the runoffs in the end was a little below 50%, which is indeed significantly lower than the 59% of the first round. The first results look somewhat favourable to the right, but still mixed with results like the centre-left ahead in Vicenza (a conservative city if there is one).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Right has indeed won all major contests (Ancona, Brindisi, Massa, Pisa, Siena) except for Vicenza. What strange times we live in. On the other hand the CSX had some success in smaller towns, flipping major suburbs like Cologno Monzese near Milan or Torre del Greco near Naples. Speaking of suburbs, the industrial centre of Campi Bisenzio next to Florence elected a M5S mayor against the PD which had ruled for a very long time there.

Counting in Sicily and Sardinia has barely started and will probably continue till tomorrow.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In Sicily Trantino kept Catania for the right in a landslide, incumbents were re-elected in Trapani (Tranchida, PD) and Ragusa (Cassì, independent supported by FdI in 2018 but by centrist parties this year) while in Siracusa the incumbent Italia (Azione) qualified for a runoff with the rightist candidate leaving PD-M5S to dry. Overall little change.

[omar04]

Does anyone know what party if any the mayors of Castelfranci and Bugnara are affiliated with? They endorsed DeSantis a couple of days ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ron_DeSantis_2024_presidential_campaign_primary_endorsements#Current_3

[FrancoAgo]

both should center right
Bugnara mayor has a past in the Democrazia Cristiana (in the 80s)
Castelfranci mayor was FI county councilor in 2004-2008

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Does anyone know what party if any the mayors of Castelfranci and Bugnara are affiliated with? They endorsed DeSantis a couple of days ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ron_DeSantis_2024_presidential_campaign_primary_endorsements#Current_3

Castelfranci and Bugnara are among the villages where at least one great-grandparent of De Santis was born (they were all born in Italy), I'm sure these endorsements are just a way to gain notoriety.

[omar04]

both should center right
Bugnara mayor has a past in the Democrazia Cristiana (in the 80s)
Castelfranci mayor was FI county councilor in 2004-2008

Thank you, if I may ask where do you find this kind of information? I couldn't find anything searching myself.

[Mike88]

Is there a national tally with results by coalition and parties, with gains and losses? That would be interesting.

[FrancoAgo]

both should center right
Bugnara mayor has a past in the Democrazia Cristiana (in the 80s)
Castelfranci mayor was FI county councilor in 2004-2008

Thank you, if I may ask where do you find this kind of information? I couldn't find anything searching myself.

there is this https://amministratori.interno.gov.it/amministratori/index.html

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is there a national tally with results by coalition and parties, with gains and losses? That would be interesting.

I doubt there is one, and in any case I don't think it would be very informative since not all municipalities had last voted in 2018, a lot of votes in these elections go to always changing local lists or joint lists, and most small municipalities don't have party lists at all.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Now that (the vast majority of) local elections are over, it's time to make an update on the Molise regional election, which will be held on June 25 and 26.

As predicted the Right has ditched the extremely unpopular incumbent Toma and selected in his place the mayor of Termoli Francesco Roberti (FI), who is also supported by Italia Viva, while on the other side PD and M5S formed a coalition to support the mayor of Campobasso Roberto Gravina (M5S). The only other candidate is a random independent, so in essence this is a two-way fight between the mayors of the two largest towns in the region. Still the only poll I could find shows a very close race. I am not setting my hopes up too much, but if this became the first left-wing regional pickup since 2015 it would be hilarious. And someone would definitely make the joke "the left can only win in regions that don't exist".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Apparently Massimo D'Alema (former President of the Council, long-time watchers will be familiar with the character he is) is finally being investigated for aggravated corruption regarding one time he acted as a broker for a sale of Italian weapons to the Colombian government. Yay, I love this country.

[FrancoAgo]

italian weapons to Colombia??
this is a news, some has a idea of what weapons we sell to Colombia?