Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

These are really preliminary data, based mostly on results in Northern cities - which, yes, look very good for Schlein right now. Still, we should wait for the South, since many big name PD figures there support Bonaccini.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, if these (very partial) regional results hold, Schlein has this and it won't even be close.

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1629949467523788809

This would be the first time we have a real upset in a PD primary. Very interesting.

[FrancoAgo]

Youtrend declared the Schlein winner

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bonaccini just conceded. With 80% of the votes counted, Schlein leads by 8 poins, so this is over.

This is really shocking, honestly. I was expecting Bonaccini to win handily given the amount of institutional support he had and the PD voter base's tendency to go with the "safe choice".

It's also a heartening result, not because Schlein is a particularly inspiring leader, but because Bonaccini's strategic vision would have been a complete disaster for PD. The last thing we needed is doubling down on branding PD as the "responsible grown-ups party" and opening the door back to parasites like Renzi and Calenda. At least after tonight those people are out in the cold.

[Mike88]

Ohh... this is quite an upset.

Was turnout high? In 2019 there were 1,582,000 ballots cast.

[FrancoAgo]

probably the turn out is at best 1/4 of that 2019

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ohh... this is quite an upset.

Was turnout high? In 2019 there were 1,582,000 ballots cast.

probably the turn out is at best 1/4 of that 2019

Turnout is estimated to be around 1.2M, so less than in 2019, but not that much less.

[FrancoAgo]

i thought so low because youtrend update before of that 80% was at 250k

[Mike88]

Isn't there a result website or something to follow the returns?

[Estrella]

Congratulations to Italy's new social democratic party. The increasingly pathetic attempts at cosplaying as DC thirty years after their way of doing politics was completely discredited were getting kind of old.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Like Antonio said, this result is pretty surprising (more so since Bonaccini easily led the members-only vote two weeks ago).

On a related note, the Democratic Party has been crawling back from its low point in the polls in the last few weeks while the growth of FdI (and regrowth of the M5S) has stalled for now. I hope Schlein's election is not going to blow that up.

[Mike88]

Final results of the PD primary:

53.75% Elly Schlein, 587,010 votes
46.25% Stefano Bonaccini, 505,032

  0.60% Blank/Invalid ballots, 6,580

Turnout 1,098,622

[Mike88]

Most voted candidate by region:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1630261985991426048

The national commission for the PD congress has released the data by region.
Schlein triumphs in 12 regions (plus abroad) and Bonaccini in 8.
The elected secretary wins all the northern regions except Emilia-Romagna, as well as the four regions of central Italy and Sicily.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Weird map, but I guess not entirely surprising given the candidates and the big names supporting them. With that Campania result, it's clear that De Luca continues to be a major power broker in the South. Sicily is interesting. PD is much less well-implanted there so I guess that played to Schlein's favor? And while it sucks a little that the North is what carried the day for Schlein, I guess it's nice that her stronger area was the Northwest rather than the cursed Northeast.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

An update on the regional elections, of which we'll see quite a few this year.

Friuli-Venezia Giulia (2nd and 3rd of April): Incumbent Massimiliano Fedriga (Lega) is going to run again for the Right. Naturally, the main question is how large his margin of victory will be. On the centre-left PD, M5S and AVS have converged on the candidacy of Massimiliano Moretuzzo, leader of the regional autonomist party Patto per l'Autonomia, who of course also has the support of Slovenska Skupnost, the party of the tiny but not trivial Slovene minority. We don't have precise numbers because of course we don't but it's estimated at around 50,000 people; for reference SSk has always gotten between 1 and 1.5% of the vote in regional elections. Azione/Italia Viva and +Europa support Alessandro Maran, a former Scelta Civica Senator with a PCI background (lol).

Molise (25th and 26th of June): No significant update except that the date has been officially established, not coinciding with the mayoral elections which will be held in May instead.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The regional president of the Aosta Valley Erik Lavévaz (Union Valdôtaine) resigned last month, as part of a political crisis caused by growing suggestions inside his party to switch sides and go with the right. UV is a regionalist party which is very much an institution in the Valley, and while it currently isn't the largest party in the regional council it is widely understood to be the kingmaker. The party council of UV met yesterday and they narrowly approved a motion that urges a reconsolidation of the previous centre-left majority to elect Lavévaz's successor and to reconvene the party council as soon as possible to discuss the outcome, whereas the minority proposed to automatically start dealing with the right in case the first negotiations fail (without a new council meeting). However, out of those who sit as regional councillors, six out of seven voted for the latter motion, showcasing the split inside the party.

Update: a new regional president was elected two weeks ago. Renzo Testolin of Union Valdôtaine, already interim president in 2019 and early 2020, was voted by the same autonomist-centre-left majority that supported Lavévaz. The opposition did not take part in the vote. Crisis averted?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

[Cassius]

BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

Bonaccini is the President of Emilia-Romagna.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

[Conservatopia]

BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.

Well, you're British. You don't have any food in the first place because of "bad weather in Spain"

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

I was about to write that it's hardly a while since Ed Miliband but, wait, 2015 was eight years ago (how?) and you're quite young aren't you?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

I was about to write that it's hardly a while since Ed Miliband but, wait, 2015 was eight years ago (how?) and you're quite young aren't you?

Ah. I wasn't aware Miliband identified as Jewish.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. I wasn't aware Miliband identified as Jewish.

He does (and notably, though careful never to comment directly on the reasons, refused all offers to return to the Opposition Front Bench until 2020), though in his case identification would not be important as such anyway as all of his known ancestors are Jewish.

[FrancoAgo]

BASED! This is the first time in a while that a Jew has been in charge of a major European party (that wasn't a personal vehicle, looking at you, Zemmour)

Anyway, why did Schlein lose Emilia-Romagna? She's from there and was Vice President of the region (I assume that's the Italian equivalent of Lieutenant Governor, feel free to correct me)

This depends on whether you count Zingaretti as "a Jew" (which I don't think he does himself, but part of his maternal family is Jewish and his great-grandmother was deported to Auschwitz). I also assume you are counting Sluha Narodu as a personal vehicle?

Don't feed the American.

Well, you're British. You don't have any food in the first place because of "bad weather in Spain"

Regardless, nothing I wrote was incorrect. As I said, Schlein is the first person in a while to both identify as Jewish and lead an established party. "A while" is also a rather subjective time frame.

The Schlein is not Jewish, her father is not her mother