Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Andrea]

New projection by RAI. Things are pretty stable



https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574167580545359873?s=20&t=KQPgxgU5H3IWLedPybER0w

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

1,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

3,215/60,399

RIGHT: 478,967 (45.51%)
LEFT: 299,562 (28.46%)
M5S: 126,257 (12.00%)

HOUSE:

282/61,417

RIGHT: 22,454 (46.96%)
LEFT: 12,276 (25.67%)
M5S: 5,701 (11.92%)

[Logical]

The count so far has a Northern bias.  If so then Lega is doomed to be below 10% and PD is doomed to be below 20%.

PD are currently losing all but the Florence Senate seat in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna. The Senate is the faster count. So either the cities with more votes and more PD votes are going slow (likely given nothing from Rome and Milan so far), PD will perform worse than expected, or a bit of both.

Looks like PD will win the seat in Turin as well.

[jaichind]

It seems M5S is like Antaeus. It must always touch the Mother Earth of being in opposition to having strength or else its support falls apart by being in the ruling bloc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but M5S' result is the surprise of the night. No idea what their appeal still is, after 100,000 U turns...

Basically they're an accidental parody of an ineffectual labour party these days, which turns out to be (it appears) the one viable route to survival. Of course it's rather damning of the PD that this happens to be the case, but, well, what to say.

[Andrea]

The Florence Senate candidate is not even PD, it was "landed" to Green/Left.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

2,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

5,719/60,399

RIGHT: 925,793 (45.49%)
LEFT: 571,395 (28.07%)
M5S: 252,963 (12.43%)

HOUSE:

898/61,417

RIGHT: 93,398 (43.94%)
LEFT: 58,738 (27.64%)
M5S: 29,499 (13.88%)

[Oryxslayer]

3rd Senate Projection:

Blacks:

Right: 44%
Left: 26%
M5S: 16%
A-IV: 7.7%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This will sound like cope but I do think it's significant that PD isn't collapsing further despite all the stupid "liberals" packing for A-IV. Of course, this could have been much better and Letta proving that he doesn't know how to campaign is damning (while that's kind of endearing to me, by definition it doesn't appeal to common people).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)

Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

[Oryxslayer]

5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)

Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.

[MRCVzla]

Quorum/YouTrend for SkyTG24 officially projects what M5S minister Sergio Costa wins the Napoli-Fuorigrotta Camera district, this and Impegno Civico projected to be below 1% means what former M5S leader and minister Luigi Di Maio is not reelected and will be OUT OF PARLIAMENT
https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574180106561589251

Meanwhile at Senate early count, Sgarbi is leading the Bologna district against Casini (almost 40yr in parliament at risk) but remains to count a lot of precincts from Bologna city proper. As well, Cateno De Luca' high result projected at Sicily regional election may could help his "South Calls North" list to also win some Camera/Senate districts (at the moment to redact this, its leading the Messina Senate district)

Surprise to me is +Europa around to surpass the 3% threshold to obtain PR seats. Also the "unexpected" race between Lega and FI at 8-9%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)

Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.

Good news for the left then. A right-wing government might not even be necessarily inevitable?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)

Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.

Good news for the left then. A right-wing government might not even be necessarily inevitable?

Probably a bit too late at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

5,000,000 votes counted

SENATE:

13,031/60,399

RIGHT: 2,235,801 (44.44%)
LEFT: 1,376,179 (27.36%)
M5S: 723,834 (14.39%)

HOUSE:

3,349/61,417

RIGHT: 436,339 (42.55%)
LEFT: 280,099 (27.32%)
M5S: 158,731 (15.48%)

Is it just me or is the Right slowly declining in vote share?

PD Senate candidate now leading in Emilia-Romagna 3 which covers Bologna and a bit else. They have also gained ground in neighboring seats so yeah, the cities (and the south) are coming in slower.

Good news for the left then. A right-wing government might not even be necessarily inevitable?

Probably a bit too late at this point.

Yeah this is about saving the furniture - or in this case the stronghold seats - from a 17% percent loss.

[Andrea]

Bologna city results coming in and Casini is now leading 40 to 31%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So in the Senate, the Right is almost certain to win at least 54 seats out of 74. M5S is well placed to get 5, and the left (including SVP lol) another 5. Another 10 are still floating around, though in most of them the right is behind.

On the PR side, the right should probably win 55-60 seats. So probably 110 to 120 is where the Senate will end up when all is said and done.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How are the results ending up comparing to the exits

[Oryxslayer]

Meloni speaking.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final La7 has the Right at 44.1 and the Left at 26.4 for the Senate.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I am going to sleep now... my last considerations are that overall this result in addition to bad is pretty pathetic, but we do have silver linings like the left-of-PD party perhaps not underperforming for the first time in forever or the comic relief of Cateno De Luca's list in Sicily (I did not even know it was running in the national election until today) seemingly posting some hilariously strong results.

On a related note, the Sicily regional election ballots will be counted tomorrow, but the results are already well-known (Schifani will win, De Luca will do surprisingly well, Chinnici and Di Paola will have eaten into each other and caused a humiliation for the broad left).

[Logical]

Exit poll by age
Senate. Appears that the logos for Lega and M5S were switched.

House

[Antonio the Sixth]

About 50% of precincts have reported for the Senate. Here's the breakdown by region:

Liguria 82%
TAA 78%
Umbria 77%
FVG 74%
Emilia-Romagna 72%
VdA 69%
Marche 67%
Toscana 67%
Puglia 62%
Veneto 60%
Piemonte 60%
Molise 57%
NATIONWIDE 52%
Campania 49%
Abruzzo 49%
Lazio 49%
Basilicata 43%
Calabria 39%
Sardegna 37%
Lombardia 36%
Sicilia 19%

So there's a lot left, mainly from the South but also from Lazio and Lombardy. The Red Regions once again have shot their load early, so we can probably expect the right to gain a bit, but especially M5S to grow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So in the Senate, the Right is almost certain to win at least 54 seats out of 74. M5S is well placed to get 5, and the left (including SVP lol) another 5. Another 10 are still floating around, though in most of them the right is behind.

On the PR side, the right should probably win 55-60 seats. So probably 110 to 120 is where the Senate will end up when all is said and done.

La7 says between 114 and 122. Close enough, I guess. We'll see where it ends up exactly. The right looks actually set to sweep all the Rome seats, so that would shift a couple seats around.