Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

While the Right has been talking about "presidentialism" (in a vague sense - the only specific proposal they have put forward is indeed direct elections for the President of the Republic, which could mean a lot of different things in practice), we should mention that Calenzi have proposed the direct election of the President of the Council, turning the office into "Italy's mayor" in their words (although I'm assuming they wouldn't abolish the Quirinal, so that it would look like Israel at the turn of the century more than our local government). Truly big brains!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For the most part it would be a return to how things were the last time they were in charge, which, well,  was substantially responsible for the complete mess the country has been in (is still in) subsequently...

In some ways it might actually be better, because I assume the current composition and strength will mean less interest in laws meant to shield His Lowness and in creative economics (also those of us who remember the Lega Nord of yesteryear know that Salvini comes off as comparatively normal somehow). On the other hand, it's likely to be more radical and unbridled in its aims...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So is Meloni likely to be the next PM?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pollsters finally seem to be waking up. We've had 12 individual firm giving us polling results in the past week or so, which hopefully should lead to a more robust average. Of course, that's no guarantee of accuracy, but at least we're not completely in the dark (though we will be soon since we only have one more week before the polling blackout).

FdI: 24.2%
Lega: 12.9%
FI: 8.1%
NM: 1.7% (1.8% when included)
Total Right: 46.9%

PD: 22.3%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.9% (2.1% when included)
IC: 1.0% (1.1% when included)
Total Center-Left: 28.8%

M5S: 11.8%

A-IV: 6.2%

Italexit: 2.8%

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)


Well, new polls or not, there still wasn't much change this week. The right's total is actually identical from last week. The left has recovered a point (although that might be due to pollsters finally starting to bother polling smaller coalition partners) but is still nowhere near where it needs to be to close the gap. M5S is also, somehow, gaining back support (+0.7 from last week), while A-IV seems to be plateauing and Italexit inches ever closer to the 3% threshold.

We'll see if any meaningful trends start setting in next week - it'll be our last chance to guess what the trends will be until September 25th, so hopefully they'll give us some room for hope...

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so there are 2 outcomes I am slightly scared of (even within how terrible this election is) so I will ask how likely both scenarios are:

a) The 3 right wing parties adding up to a "constitutional majority"/being able to amend the constitution unilaterally without referendum. Which from what I can tell would mean a 2/3 majority?
 
b) FdI+Lega adding up to a majority by themselves, not needing Forza Italia. Not like Berlusconi is going to be a particularly good moderating force, but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Is either scenario likely to happen?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, so there are 2 outcomes I am slightly scared of (even within how terrible this election is) so I will ask how likely both scenarios are:

a) The 3 right wing parties adding up to a "constitutional majority"/being able to amend the constitution unilaterally without referendum. Which from what I can tell would mean a 2/3 majority?
 
b) FdI+Lega adding up to a majority by themselves, not needing Forza Italia. Not like Berlusconi is going to be a particularly good moderating force, but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Is either scenario likely to happen?

The general consensus on a) is that it's a stretch goal for the right, even with its current levels of support. It's definitely achievable, but it would probably require them overperforming current polls by a few points. If they do, then all hell breaks loose.

The likelihood of b) is harder to ascertain, but it's probably a little more likely than a). My best guess is that it would require the coalition winning ~63% of the seats, which is definitely within reach, but it also depends on the internal division of constituencies among the parties, which I haven't really drilled down on. If Forza Italia has more safe seats, the threshold would be higher. Still, this is a strong possibility and definitely one of the things to watch on September 25th.

[jaichind]

Is it me or does it seem that M5S and the Centrist coalition have been gaining ground against both the Right wing and Left wing blocs?

[rc18]

Yeah, it's just you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

[Oppo]

Not the endorsement the Five Star Movement was looking for…

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1566866114176602114?s=21&t=heq0hsEP5...

[Coldstream]

M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

I don’t wish to sound solipsistic, but there’s no real way around it. Why on Earth is anyone voting for Calenda/Renzi? Who looks at Enrico Letta and thinks “this man is an extremist who needs to be reigned in by Renzi” who doesn’t just vote for the right.

[FrancoAgo]

some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell

[omar04]

some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell

He can't stomach voting for the ISP?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_and_Popular_Italy

[Oppo]

some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell

This is as dumb as when Salvini said Berlinguer would vote Lega if he was alive today

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

I don’t wish to sound solipsistic, but there’s no real way around it. Why on Earth is anyone voting for Calenda/Renzi? Who looks at Enrico Letta and thinks “this man is an extremist who needs to be reigned in by Renzi” who doesn’t just vote for the right.

I don't think anyone (who isn't very right-wing anyway) thinks Letta is an extremist. They think he has allied with extremists - or just with plain idiots in the case of Di Maio - or that he is incoherent and perhaps untrustworthy. I've also heard people who have known him personally say that he isn't really interested in campaigning. But even if they did - and I find that as silly as you do - you are probably underestimating the hostility towards the Right, more so this Right that at least some old Italians who are pretty conservative have... and have for understandable reasons.

[FrancoAgo]

some people think that renzi and calenda are leftist, more leftist of the PD...
i know a young man call himself communist* and vote and it's member of the Calenda party

* it's clear that he is not know what he tell

He can't stomach voting for the ISP?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_and_Popular_Italy

probably he think they are not leftist, next time i meet him i ask

[jaichind]

Bloomberg is doing their own polling average and this week they have MS5 and Centrist bloc gaining ground from both the Right and Left blocs

                         Latest Week, %      Prev Week, %        Change, pp    
Right                            46.2                     47.1                     -0.9    
Center-left                    27.9                     28.9                     -1    
Five Star                       12.6                     11.4                    1.2    
Centrist coalition             6.5                       5.8                    0.7    

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, here we are. Yesterday was the last day to publish polls, and of course every pollster (including plenty with dubious track record) rushed to get their final survey out. There's been a whopping 27 polls published since 09/03. Many pollsters published multiple ones, but I only kept each firm's final poll, leaving a still robust total of 20. Of course, that's no guarantee that they'll actually pan out, especially since the election is in two weeks. Still, this is the best picture we're going to get, so we'll have to make do with it until the 25th.

FdI: 24.9%
Lega: 12.1%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.3% (1.4% when included)
Total Right: 46%

PD: 21.5%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.8% (1.9% when included)
IC: 1% (1.2% when included)
Total Center-Left: 27%

M5S: 13.4%

A-IV: 6.7%

Italexit: 2.7% (2.8% when included)

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)

Both major camps have lost ground since last week, but the left more so (-1.8, compared to -0.9 for the right). M5S meanwhile really seems to be the big winner of this campaign so far, having regained another 1.6 points from last week (mostly at the expense of PD it would seem). And A-IV bafflingly, inexplicably has also gained another 0.5 points. So, we're entering the final two weeks on a fragmented political landscape, but one still dominated by the right - and with a 19-point margin, it's still well positioned to sweep the FPP seats.

[MRCVzla]

Utility links (all links in Italian):
Candidate lists
Interior Ministry: https://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/trasparenza/elezioni-politiche-2022
https://candidatipolitiche2022.netlify.app/

Italian party quiz
Trovapartito (Sky TG24/YouTrend): https://tg24.sky.it/politica/elezioni/trova-partito-per-chi-votare
Itamat: https://itamat.it/
Politicometro (Ultimora.net): https://politicometro.net/ (also on Telegram: https://t.me/Politicometro_Bot )
Navigatore Politico (Quotidiano Nazionale): https://euandi2019.eui.eu/survey/it/navigatorepolitico2022.html

GEDI/Repubblica' Candidate search by municipality+Political quiz (Partitometro): https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2022/candidati-elezioni-25-settembre-collegi-comuni/

Seat-o-meter calculator
Seggiometro (Sky TG24/YouTrend): https://tg24.sky.it/politica/approfondimenti/simulatore-elezioni-maggioranza-parlamento-numero-seggi

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is going to be the Italian version of SaintStan's A Blank Canvas isn't it.

[MRCVzla]

As polls are banned since last week, some of the Italian political sites are trying in their socials put some trends of the banned polls... and seems the M5S will be recovering some votes in the South (as happened in 2013 and 2018) at cost of the center-left, so Letta' campaign (already much of communicational disaster since the start) is concentrating all its efforts there (to perhaps prevent the pentastellatos from winning some FPTP seats, especially in the Naples area).

The rest of the campaign focuses mainly on the problems arising from the situation in Ukraine, inflation, rising bills, security and inmigration. Meloni's campaign has been cautious (except when a MP publicly requested to the Peppa Pig episode about a lesbian couple or some other praising Hitler), she is really portraying a PM profile in the rest of the campaign as FdI is still rising while Lega's weak, Salvini still wants to "retaining" immigrant rescue boats and imposing his "flax tax" while Berlusconi is becoming popular on TikTok while he wants to continue to ensure that the center-right coalition will remain pro-EU and pro-NATO. Probably the center-right is not going to eliminate but modify in its own way the "citizenship tax" (M5S' star measure). The centrist "third pole" seems have no other major policy that keep Draghi as PM despite he's not wanting again the job. There were some "debates" at political forums as well a Letta-Meloni face-to-face at Corriere della Sera' website, but not a proper TV debate (Mentana' La7 seems still have is offer up to have one with the four major leaders for this Thursday, but is really unlikely), it seems that they are very comfortable with the interview/press conference format (adjusted with the "par condicio" time limit, more than 30 minutes for lists in Parliament, and like less than 10-15 minutes for the extraparliamentary ones).

The update came for this, if remember that Cappato guy from the Radicals ("high" on social justice-direct democracy) who was trying to run only collecting digital signatures bc they accepted in this year' referendums and hopping a last minute' rule to validate that at general election level, well, all of their lists were rejected so he appealed at a Milano court and if they ruled in his favor, the elections should have to be delayed so their "Referendum and Democracy" lists can be accepted and reimpress all the ballots with their symbol. The court ruled today and... their rejected his appeal (without much surprise, he still wants to appeal to international instances, good luck with that) so the elections are going as scheduled this Sunday (the postal abroad vote is ongoing since some weeks ago).

- Meloni is running in L'Aquila Camera district
- Berlusconi is running in the Monza Senate district, city of the newly promoted Serie A team which he owns (while his younger girlfriend is running in a safe Sicilian Camera seat)
- Three interesting races to watch:
1) Bologna Senate: Pierferdinando Casini running again with the centre-left (this time if he's elected will seat in the PD group) against the always controversial Vittorio Sgarbi (in a Noi Moderati quota, and with some support of his celebrity friends).
2) Roma centre Senate: Emma Bonino vs. Carlo Calenda... but the vote division of the latter could cause the victory of the FdI' Cdx candidate.
3) Napoli-Fuorigrotta Camera: three Draghi ministers running in the same district, Luigi Di Maio (IC), Mara Carfagna (Azione/IV) and Sergio Costa (M5S), who will come out first among them or the Cdx candidate
- To watch also the 3% threshold race at PR level, will the mainstream left (Verdi-Sinistra) not underpolling again?, Italexit will surpass it?

[jaichind]

Will be interesting to see if M5S outperforms pre-election polls for the third general election in a row.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Brothers of Italy sacked one of their candidates for statements comparing Meloni and Hitler and calling both "great leaders".

The far-right Italian party Brothers of Italy, tipped to win Sunday's election, has suspended one of its candidates for praising Adolf Hitler on social media.

In a 2014 Facebook post, Calogero Pisano, a party co-ordinator in Agrigento in Sicily, compared party leader Giorgia Meloni to "a great statesman of 70 years ago".

He added that he was referring to a "German" and not Benito Mussolini.

The party said Mr Pisano no longer represented it at any level.

Ms Meloni has been trying to distance the Brothers of Italy from its neo-fascist roots.

[Senator Incitatus]

I looked up Pisano, and he has clearly lost a lot of weight in the past few years. More proof that being fat causes bad opinions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gotta love how talking about fascism in FdI gets you branded as a radical-chic lefty fearmonger until one of them lets the mask slip for a second. And then of course everyone promptly forgets the next day.