Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[MRCVzla]

And speaking of which, Letta and Calenda have reached a coalition agreement. Apparently they're going to split the FPP seats 70-30, which is frankly ridiculous when their polling numbers are more on the order of 80-20 or 85-15. I guess Calenda drove a hard bargain, and Letta felt he really needed him (if nothing else, to isolate Renzi).

But now many parties to the left of PD are dissatisfied and making noises about leaving the negotiating table with PD. We'll see what they do, but I'll still count today as a relative win for the paltry chances we have at stopping a right-wing majority.

Also in the agreement, any of the coalition' party leaders will not run in FPTP districts also neither any of the so-called "divided personalities" as formers MPs and ministers from M5S (Di Maio and co.) or FI (Carfagna, Gelmini...). That was if not the main concern for Calenda as being in the same coalition with Di Maio and likely EV/SI, also EV/SI were the ones who proposed the idea of no leaders (or high-profile politicians) in FPTP seats to court/calm down the liberals. Centre-left FPTP candidatures will mostly being local/independent/low-profile with the main ranks bet all to PR seats (while IC and/or AVS probably at risk to not gaining any seats)

Probably Letta will now do separate agreements with AVS and IC to likely ceede around 15-20% of its 70% share of FPTP candidates and some safe districts... and not write off if the agreement with the liberals will also convince Renzi' IV to finally rejoin and take some of the Azione/+Eu' 30% share of FPTP candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably Letta will now do separate agreements with AVS and IC to likely ceede around 15-20% of its 70% share of FPTP candidates and some safe districts... and not write off if the agreement with the liberals will also convince Renzi' IV to finally rejoin and take some of the Azione/+Eu' 30% share of FPTP candidates.

That seems pretty optimistic to me, but inshallah you're right. It would be hilarious to see Renzi be cowed like that.

[rob in cal]

  In the recent city elections didn't the center left candidates do pretty well, even though nation wide polls were about the same as they are now. In other words, did they overperform polling?

[Oryxslayer]

  In the recent city elections didn't the center left candidates do pretty well, even though nation wide polls were about the same as they are now. In other words, did they overperform polling?

In certain case yes, in some no. Locals are generally still local.

But the more important factor is that a lot of - but not all - major cities here favor the center-left alliance when compared to the national vote.

[MRCVzla]

Sicilian regional election will be also on September 25. Regional President Nello Musumeci as resigned, according some source pressured by FI and Lega.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1555256817504100352

In other news, talks between PD and Verdi/SI continues and they put a 48-hours limit to reach an agreement and clarify their stauts within the centre-left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's this week's polling average.

FdI: 23.9%
PD/A1: 23.6%
Lega: 13.2%
M5S: 10.4%
FI: 8.2%
+E/Az: 5.5%
SI/EV: 3.4%
Italexit: 2.7%
IV: 2.6%
IC: 1.2%

Right at 45.3% (+0.2). Hypothetical center-left (now without IV which has confirmed it's out) at 33.7% (+0.4). M5S gained 0.3 points as well. Overall not much movement, the only significant change from last week is Lega losing a bit and FI and +E/Azione gaining a bit

[xelas81]

It would be extremely funny but I'm assuming M5S + IV has no chance of happening?

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD has completed agreements with SI/EV and with IC. These appear to all be separate, bilateral agreements, so it remains unclear if they'll be able to form a single cohesive coalition including +E/Az as well. Still, that should ensure that they avoid competing against each other in the vast majority of seats. It looks like PD agreed to a 80-20 division of seats with SI/EV, and a 92-8 one with IC. Again, like with Calenda earlier, these are more generous seat distributions than you'd expect from poll numbers. I'm assuming that PD will keep for itself a disproportionate share of winnable seats, though. Either that or Letta is really desperate to have an agreement at any cost (which I can respect tbh).

[FrancoAgo]

This bilateral agreement means?
if i understand the 148 FPTP of Chamber wiuld be
84 to PD
36 to A/E+
21 to SI/EV
7 to IC
what you think?

[MRCVzla]

This bilateral agreement means?
if i understand the 148 FPTP of Chamber wiuld be
84 to PD
36 to A/E+
21 to SI/EV
7 to IC
what you think?

The overall possible agreement in both chambers seems to be this:
https://twitter.com/lorepregliasco/status/1555997116060803072

The EV/SI agreement was possible also by an SI' internal vote where 61% were favorable to an alliance with PD.

Also yesterday there were some movements in the other blocs:
- Toti' Italia al Centro oficially rejoined the Centre-right and run in a join list with Lupi' Noi con l'Italia. In the same vein, the UDC (Unione di Centro) will run in a joint list with Brugnaro' Coraggio Italia, instead of run inside of Forza Italia' lists/quota. In both cases, seems FDI will ceede part of their FPTP seats quota to this minor parties.
- Mastella' Noi di Centro reached an agreement with microparty "Europeisti" by senator Raffaele Fantetti (elected in an overseas constituency) what will run at national level without collecting signature, they still run by their own with the hope of elect at least a senator in Campania (probably Mastella' wife Sandra Lonardo, running for reelection).
- Just hours after been presented at the public, Alternativa broke up its alliance with Italexit, arguing what in the Italexit quota were candidates with "neofascist profile" (allegedly related to Casapound)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Ah, Clemente Mastella never disappoints with his CENTRIST pure inland Campania trickery. I have no idea how his wife plans to be re-elected if their microparty is running alone but hope is free.

Also very sad day for horseshoe theory when ex-M5S left-wing cranks can't even rejoin ex-M5S right-wing cranks because CasaPound is a step too far. Maybe they will go with Rizzo...

[Andrea]

Azione leaves the agreement with PD

[Mike88]

Azione leaves the agreement with PD

Più Europa, Azione's alliance partner, on the other hand says that talks with PD are going well and a decision will be made in the next 48 hours:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1556273308592734208

BREAKING - Benedetto #DellaVedova: "A Più Europa the pact with the PD is fine. We will take 48 hours to decide."

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a joke. Hopefully he and Renzi will both crash and burn.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I read the ANSA article with highlights from Calenda's speech and he sounded pretty delusional... he said that SI/EV are setting the tone of a campaign that will punch more against the liberal area than against the right-wing, that he thought PD had had its Bad Godesberg, and that Letta chose to make a new CLN instead of putting forward a government proposal. Lol, lmao.

[Coldstream]

Never thought I’d be ranking Di Maio ahead of Renzi. I hope Renzi & Calenda crash out of Parliament with 0 seats - absolutely, predictably, appalling self centredness not to come together with the PD.

[Andrea]

Pizzarotti's outfit will run with Italia Viva.

[jaichind]

If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

[morgieb]

What’s the difference between Lega and FdI? Aren’t they both RW populist parties?

[Oryxslayer]

What’s the difference between Lega and FdI? Aren’t they both RW populist parties?

Salvini must resent the way that Meloni has supplanted him as the far right leader, perhaps the best hope for Italian Democracy is that this divide can be manipulated somehow.

I only really have a rudimentary understanding of Italian politics, but what is the difference between the Brothers of Italy and the League? Does Italy really need two major far-right parties?

Different backgrounds and approaches.

Lega was at one time the Northern League, a separatist/regionalist party for the economically advantaged north. This meant that the people who have long had a pro-League voting habit were all in the North. Salvini took over a party in disarray and declining identity in 2013 and reoriented it towards the cultural Far Right. He changed the name and revived it's fortunes, but most of their voters were still northerners.

During Conte I government, Salvini was the tail that wagged the M5S dog. Lega surged, eating up a chunk of the FI vote and a larger portion of the M5S vote. These were southern voters checking out an unfamiliar party that was saying the right stuff. We saw this to a degree in the EU elections with Lega winning almost 35% on its own and pushing down the peninsula geographically.

FdI has until now been a minor party. They have a reputation as 'nostalgic fascists' similar to VOX in Spain mainly because the party has not been big enough previously to define itself other than by its small cadre of voters and its predecessors. It was founded as a split from Forza and a merger with the old National Conservative AN (Alleanza Nazionale), so that influences its programs and traditions. FdI and the national conservative predecessors historically had a base in central Italy when compared to other conservative parties. Meloni is certainly more vocally culturally conservative on non-immigration issues than her allies.

FdI has remained in opposition during the entire 2018-2022 period, despite the populist Conte I government and the Draghi Grand Coalition. This made it attractive as Salvini fell out of favor and lost his southern vote, and then as the other Conservative parties entered the grand coalition. Those who were never quite at home with Lega but want a rightward turn - including the geographic element -  have now gone FdI.

Also Salvini, like Zemmour in France, wasn't painted in the best light following Putin's invasion of Ukraine, whereas FdI appears to have navigated that issue similar to Le Pen. But that is just one cause of many behind the evolution of the conservative vote.

[S019]

If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.

[Andrea]

Indeed.

Here is the example of the designa of a ballot paper from 2018

http://www.prefettura.it/FILES/AllegatiPag/1141/Fac-Simile_Scheda_Camera_-_Circoscrizione_Lombardia_1_-_Collegio_Plurinominale_1_-_Collegio_Uninominale_6.pdf

In capital letters you have the FPTP candidates. Then behind each of them the logos of lists backing him and the names of the candidates for the PR part next to the logos.

[FrancoAgo]

If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.

the strange it's not this, if you vote alist that support a FPTP candidate, the vote go also to him, the strange it's the inverse if you vote the FPTP candidate your vote go to the list that support him, proportionally to their actual votes

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --Italy’s centrist Azione party leader Carlo Calenda and the Italia Viva party leader Matteo Renzi are set to meet to iron out last details of an alliance ahead of snap elections next month.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.

the strange it's not this, if you vote alist that support a FPTP candidate, the vote go also to him, the strange it's the inverse if you vote the FPTP candidate your vote go to the list that support him, proportionally to their actual votes

Yeah. This has to be one of the stupidest, ugliest electoral systems ever designed. But we're stuck with it thanks to Renzi.