Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[S019]

Whole bunch of exit polls on Rai, I regret not taking screens of them, but here they are:

Bucci (CDX) at 51-55% in Genova, Dello Strologo (CSX) 36-40%

40-44 Danato (FI+Lega) in Catanzaro, 31-35% Fiorita (CSX)

Bondi (CDX) 49-53% in A'Quila, Pezzopane (CSX) 23%-27%

Tomassi 37-41 (CSX) in Verona, Sboarina (Lega+Fratelli) 27-31 tied with Tosi 27-31 (Forza+some other right wing parties)

40-44 Guerra (CSX) in Parma, 19-23 Vignali (Lega+Forza)

Referendum 1 with Yes at 52-56

Ref 2 with Yes at 54-58

Ref 3 with Yes at 67-71

Ref 4 with Yes at 67-71

Ref 5 with Yes at 66-70

43-47 for Lagalla (CDX) in Palermo, 27-31% for Micelli (CSX)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

We are almost finished counting... if my precinct is any indication the difference between the Yes percentage in the first two referenda and the Yes percentage in the other three is massive (just as polls said). Not that this matters at all of course.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Good morning to the many people who are following this with me. In the end referendum turnout was around 20% (lowest ever indeed), while the total local elections turnout was around 55%, which seems to be five points less than five years ago (sigh) although the comparison isn't perfect since there are a fair few municipalities which voted this year but not in 2017 or vice versa.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, the referendum turnout is pathetic. I knew there was a chance of not meeting the quorum, but I was expecting at least a good 40% would at least bother to vote. Justice is traditionally a very politicized issue in Italy, and you'd expect at least core right wing voters to be hyped up about sticking it to those lefty judges. But nope, seems like nobody cared in the end. Oh well. I wasn't too invested in the outcome, but this is still bad for democracy.

[Mike88]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I am basically finished counting for today as well. It looks like Peracchini will be re-elected in the first round (just like Bucci in Genoa). I can't say I am particularly sad, except for the additional compensation I would have taken as a poll worker in the runoff, nor am I surprised.

On a national level, the centre-left fragorously (but somewhat predictably) flopped in Palermo, but it is also posting a strong performance in Verona and has already regained the smaller city of Lodi in addition to keeping Padua and Taranto.

[Mike88]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?

[Mike88]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?

208 euros?!? Wow!, if that was the case here, I would sign up to be a poll worker in every election.

I believe that referendums should be held when there's a topic that really divides and could create big changes, and in even some cases, I also have doubts about it's effectiveness. But, it is what it is. Despite the dismal turnout, the changes will be implemented, right? Or there's any kind of threshold?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Polls have now officially closed! And I am about to count and count and count. The Yes/No splits of the referenda will surely be interesting, but they are all going to miss the quorum and by a lot so in a sense we already know what to expect.

Were you a polling volunteer in this election?

Yes, I mentioned this in the previous page (and to be clear, we are paid volunteers).

Ah, sorry, I must have spiked that info. Yes, I know it's paid volunteers, here they are paid around 52 euros, I presume that it's more in Italy.

The results seem to be as expected between the "center-left" and "center-right". No major changes, expect with the win of the right in Palermo. About the referendums, what was the point of them? I know they were about judicial changes, but was a referendum really necessary?

I should be paid 208 euros this year, so yes much more.

It is arguable whether the referenda were "really necessary" and indeed a good part of the centre-left opposition to the whole thing was that it overlapped with the Cartabia reform and made the latter harder to work about. But I did think they were good questions for the most part so why not?

208 euros?!? Wow!, if that was the case here, I would sign up to be a poll worker in every election.

I believe that referendums should be held when there's a topic that really divides and could create big changes, and in even some cases, I also have doubts about it's effectiveness. But, it is what it is. Despite the dismal turnout, the changes will be implemented, right? Or there's any kind of threshold?

No, <50% turnout means the referendums are not valid.

[FrancoAgo]

Like the 2021 i give some result
Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., and regional capitol

Catanzaro
Right (-FdI) 43,8%, to run-off (the man was a member of the PCI (communist party))
Center-left+M5S 31,9%, to run-off
Center-right dissident 13,2%
Right/FdI 9,2%
An other two candidates 1,9%

Genova
Right 55,5%, elected
Center-left+M5S 38%
Against Draghi coalition (minor left to right parties) 3,6%
An other four candidates 2,9%

L'Aquila
Right 54,4%, elected
Center-left dissident 23,8%
Center-left+M5S 20,6%
An other candidate 1,2%

Palermo (564/600)
Right 48%, elected, the regional law is different
Center-left+M5S 29,2%
Center/Liberal 14,2%
Left/PaP 4,3%
Anti-vax 3,2%
An other candidate 1,1%

Messina (168/253)
Local center+Lega 45,6%, elected as above
Right (- Lega) 27,5%
Center-left +M5S 23%
An other two candidates 3,9%

Monza
Right 47,1%, to run-off
Center-left 40,1%, to run-off
Local list 5,8%
An other six candidates 7%

Padova
Center-left+ M5S 58,4%, elected
Right 33,5%
An other seven candidates 8,1%

Parma
Center-left 44,2%, to run-off
Right (-FdI) 21,3%, to run-off
Local center-right 13,5%
Right/FdI 7,5%
Green 4,2%
Left/Pap+Commies 3,6%
Local center 2,7%
An other three candidates 3%

Piacenza
Center-left 39,9%, to run-off
Right 37,7%, to run-off
M5S+Left&Green 10,7%
local center-right 8,3%
An other two candidates 3,4%

Taranto
Center-left+M5S 60,6%, elected
Right 29,8%
Local list (centrist) 5,1%
Local list 4,4%

Verona
Center-left 39,8%, to run-off
Right (-FI) 32,7%, to run-off
Local centr-right+FI 23,9%
No-vax 2,6%
An other 2 candidates 2%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some comments on the first round results...

The left bombing in Palermo and Lagalla winning in the first round isn't quite what I expected but is also not terribly surprising given how unpopular Leoluca Orlando had become. Meanwhile Basile, the "De Luca continuity candidate", should win in Messina and that is exactly what I expected. Biondi's immediate re-election in L'Aquila also comes to no one's surprise but the fact that Di Benedetto came second again beating the "official centre-left" candidate is still notable and pretty embarrassing. The right also won in the first round in the two Ligurian cities - it is interesting how similar Bucci's and Peracchini's performances are to each other and to Toti's in 2020, although both did better than the latter considering much of Toti's margin came from traditionally right-wing areas in western Liguria and in the hinterland between GE and SP.

The centre-left had fewer first-round victories but being confirmed in Padua (pour one out for Lorenzoni) and Taranto is still significant. It also has quite a few important runoff opportunities - see below.

Parma will go to a runoff but Guerra's margin over Vignali is so large (and there were a number of votes going to minor left-wing candidates) that a centre-left win seems all but certain. Beating my expectations, the centre-left also starts ahead in Piacenza (strong pickup opportunity) and Verona (this depends a lot on what Tosi does). The centre-right is instead ahead with its incumbent in Monza and quasi-incumbent in Barletta, but both should be competitive, and it is notable that Cannito in the latter did much worse than in 2018. To conclude, I talked about centre-left hopes in Catanzaro but flip-flopper Donato getting 44% to Fiorita's 32% has probably dashed them in advance... meanwhile Ferro stopped at 9% despite Abramo's endorsement and FdI being on the upswing (the most hilarious bit is that the FdI list massively underperformed her mayoral result, only getting 5%).

In general, we see that the Democratic Party held up fairly well whereas the M5S did extremely poorly, often getting fewer votes than left-of-PD lists including EV or SI. On the other side, FdI overtook Lega almost everywhere including in the latter's Northern strongholds, while Forza Italia had occasional decent results but in most cases especially up North did terribly (here in La Spezia it managed to get fewer votes than the somehow-still-existing UDC, which amuses me to no end).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Update on Verona: Flavio Tosi just joined Forza Italia (lmao) and asked for an election agreement to have his lists linked to Sboarina for the runoff - this is an ordinary if somewhat uncommon procedure, called apparentamento - but Sboarina refused that while accepting the endorsement. I think this still makes Tommasi's path somewhat harder... but all is far from certain.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Unrelated to the local elections but there is a Big F---ing Deal of an update - to quote the President of the USA - regarding the struggle between Di Maio and Conte within the M5S, which seems to have reached a bitter end. Luigi Di Maio is rumoured to be leaving the party soon and is collecting signatures for a new parliamentary group in both houses. Predictably figures who were once more relevant (Grillo, Di Battista) have come out to attack the decision. I don't really know what to say except that this is so painfully in character for the Five Stars Movement - I would point out that if this goes through they will manage the incredible feat of falling to second biggest party in Parliament after Lega (they started the legislature with almost twice the seats). Great job you idiots, never change.

[MRCVzla]

Unrelated to the local elections but there is a Big F---ing Deal of an update - to quote the President of the USA - regarding the struggle between Di Maio and Conte within the M5S, which seems to have reached a bitter end. Luigi Di Maio is rumoured to be leaving the party soon and is collecting signatures for a new parliamentary group in both houses. Predictably figures who were once more relevant (Grillo, Di Battista) have come out to attack the decision. I don't really know what to say except that this is so painfully in character for the Five Stars Movement - I would point out that if this goes through they will manage the incredible feat of falling to second biggest party in Parliament after Lega (they started the legislature with almost twice the seats). Great job you idiots, never change.

And it's official, the M5S is a dying party. Di Maio has left the "MoVimento" and named his new group "Together for the Future" with a pro-NATO/pro-EU stance, around 50 deputies and 15 senators will form the respective parliamentary groups, leaving M5S with more than a half of the MPs who were elected in 2018 (Lega will be now the first minority group, at least in the "Camera"). Bloomberg reports rumours about what the Conte' remains of M5S may leave Draghi' national unity cabinet. Let's see...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

And speaking of microparties, Brugnaro and Toti have split apart too, with Coraggio Italia (Brugnaro) and Italia al Centro (Toti) now forming separate parliamentary groups. Such are our politicians... I am sure we will enjoy a lot of renewed drama in the next year with the two of them, Calenda, Renzi, Di Maio, probably Carfagna even if she is still in FI, and maybe others too, trying to put together the much craved GREAT CENTRE and essentially jostling around with their egos.

[Mike88]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.

[Andrea]

Guerra easily winning in Parma. Currently at 65.71% with count almost half way.

Centre-left leading Piacenza 54 to 46%. 54 polling places reported out of 108.

Tommasi is leading in Verona with 54% with 111 polling places reported out of 265.

It seems centre-left is also leading in Catanzaro.

Lucca is tight so far.

[Oryxslayer]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.

Why is Lega's decline funny? Their lost voters appear to be going 1:1 to FdI which: is another right-aligned party, will likely run together with Lega when the next general election occurs, and may not be that different from Lega besides geography of support.

[Andrea]

Tommasi has won in Verona

220 polling places out of 265

Tommasi 53.63%
Sboarina 46.37%

[Andrea]

Other trends emerging

Alessandria, Cuneo, Carrara to CL

Frosinone, Barletta, Gorizia to CR

Monza is tight.

CR now leading in Lucca. Still tight.

Independent wins in Como.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today is the day of the local election runoffs! Since La Spezia's mayor was elected in the first round, I can rest instead of working at the polls a second time. Updates coming later.

In other news, the first polls after the Di Maio split show Insieme per il Futuro getting a paltry 1% but also M5S slipping more and more. Opinions on the government and the general situation have also worsened, although honestly a President of the Council getting the approval of half the population still feels historic to me.

M5S is polling now bellow 10% for the first time since 2012. Draghi is clearly benefited for not belonging to any political party and for being above the complete mess of party politics. But, next year's elections are going to be... well... complicated. If Meloni comes out on top, I don't have any idea who could be Draghi's successor as the new President of the Council of Ministers.

Alongside M5S's colapse, Lega's downfall is also spectacular.

I mean, Meloni should be Draghi's successor in that case... unless the other parties on the right decide to break the alliance unconditionally, which still seems far-fetched.

Oh of course Lega's downfall is also spectacular (and hilarious)... but it's less catastrophic in many ways.

Why is Lega's decline funny? Their lost voters appear to be going 1:1 to FdI which: is another right-aligned party, will likely run together with Lega when the next general election occurs, and may not be that different from Lega besides geography of support.

It is funny because it is a constant blow to Salvini's massive ego, because it is a party I don't like getting smashed, and because FdI is still marginally better.