Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Rome has been... a wild ride. In the end it appears that Raggi has slipped in fourth (!) even narrowly surpassed by Calenda - whose only list is the most voted one, pulling ahead of both PD and FdI. Either way Michetti and Gualtieri will go to a runoff. Also the centre-left candidate Andrea Casu won in the by-election in the Lazio 1 - 11 (Primavalle) seat. What I find particularly hilarious is that his margin of victory over the centre-right candidate appears to be almost identical (around 5.9%) to the vote share taken by our old friend Luca Palamara.

It confirmed my presumptions in that it showed a centre-left vote distribution that is less strongly centralized and gentrified than in 2018/2019 thanks mostly to Calenda stealing votes of ~rich liberals~ (watch out for Municipio II).

LOL Calenda won Municipio II outright.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the end, the first SWG projection was wildly off the mark. Gualtieri is only 3 points behind Michetti, and a whopping 8 points ahead of Raggi (who, as Battista mentioned, came in fourth). It's pretty ridiculous when the notoriously-awful exit polls come closer to the final result than the supposedly more accurate projections.

Battista has provided me with Municipio-level data, and I'd be happy to make a few maps out of it if someone can provide me with a Paint-friendly base map. Some of the patterns here are pretty hilarious.

In other major cities, the left won outright in Milan (57.73%), Bologna (61.9%) and Naples (62.9%). Those are landslide margins that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago, and Naples in particular was a stellar proof of concept for what a PD-M5S alliance can achieve.

The left-wing candidate is also in a surprisingly strong position in Turin, having won 43.86% against 38.9% for the right-wing candidate who was seen as the favorite. The other main contenders were the M5S (9.01%) and the lefty list (2.53%). Those should theoretically favor the left as well, although there is a lot of bad blood between PD and M5S in the city, and with low turnout anything can happen, so I wouldn't could this out yet. In Trieste meanwhile, there will be a runoff as well but the right-wing incumbent is clearly favored (also and anti-Vax list got 5% there lol, joke city).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would also like to mention one very famous mayor who is running for re-election this year, even if his city is not particularly significant beyond being a provincial seat: Benevento's Clemente Mastella, a household name from the Berlusconi era notable for starting a load of "centrist" parties, shifting alliances as he pleased, managing to be a minister both under Berlusconi and under Prodi, causing the downfall of the Prodi II government. A true inland Appenninic Campanian original - I assume he will be easily re-elected.

Shockingly, he has been forced into a runoff, winning only 49.33%. His main opponent seems to be a PD-backed candidate with 32.34%. I assume he'll still win easily.

Also, in Salerno, De Luca's handpicked successor Vincenzo Napoli won with "only" 57.4%, quite a drop from the 70.5% he won last time. His main opposition will be M5S-led.

[FrancoAgo]

Mayor Election results, regional capitol

Bologna:
Center-left+M5S 61.9%, elected
Right 29.6%
Power to the People 2.5%
An other five candidates  6%

Milano
Center-left 57.7%, elected
Right 32%
Italexit 3%
M5S 2.7%
An other nine candidates 5.6%

Napoli
Center-left+M5S 62.9%, elected
Right 21.9%
Dissident center-left 8.2%
Left 5.6%
An other three candidates 1.4%

Roma
Right 30.1%, to run-off
Center-left 27%, to run-off
Dissident center-left 19.8%
M5S 19.1%
An other sixteen candidates 4%

Torino
Center-left 43.9%, to run-off
Right 38.9%, to run-off
M5S 9%
Left 2.5%
An other nine candidates 5.7%

Trieste
Right 46.9%,to run-off
Center-left 31.6% to run-off
Local list 8.6% (look like a left leaning candidate)
Anti-Vax 4.5%
M5S 3.4%
An other five candidates 5%

p.s. i corrected the Trieste local list from center-left leaning to left leaning

[Conservatopia]

Green shoots of recovery for the Italian left or too early to tell?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I would also like to mention one very famous mayor who is running for re-election this year, even if his city is not particularly significant beyond being a provincial seat: Benevento's Clemente Mastella, a household name from the Berlusconi era notable for starting a load of "centrist" parties, shifting alliances as he pleased, managing to be a minister both under Berlusconi and under Prodi, causing the downfall of the Prodi II government. A true inland Appenninic Campanian original - I assume he will be easily re-elected.

Shockingly, he has been forced into a runoff, winning only 49.33%. His main opponent seems to be a PD-backed candidate with 32.34%. I assume he'll still win easily.

Also, in Salerno, De Luca's handpicked successor Vincenzo Napoli won with "only" 57.4%, quite a drop from the 70.5% he won last time. His main opposition will be M5S-led.

Thanks. To close in with the other cities I had talked about, De Pascale (PD) was re-elected in Ravenna, Sadegholvaad (PD) was elected in Rimini, while in Latina incumbent Coletta will go to a runoff with the centre-right candidate Vincenzo Zaccheo.

Among other interesting results, Davide Galimberti, the first directly elected centre-left mayor of Varese, has been forced to a runoff but has the upper hand. Galimberti succeeded Attilio Fontana in this office and, well, I wonder if he'll try to succeed Fontana as President of Lombardy too.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Green shoots of recovery for the Italian left or too early to tell?

I'd put this at too early to tell, although this was a pretty rosy result - if anything because I want to wait for the Rome runoff's result. On the other hand I don't think it is too early to say that this was a concrete confirmation of Lega's substantial slippage in favour of Fratelli d'Italia and a disappointing moment for Salvini more than anyone else.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Green shoots of recovery for the Italian left or too early to tell?

I'd put this at too early to tell, although this was a pretty rosy result - if anything because I want to wait for the Rome runoff's result. On the other hand I don't think it is too early to say that this was a concrete confirmation of Lega's substantial slippage in favour of Fratelli d'Italia and a disappointing moment for Salvini more than anyone else.

Yeah, a lot has to do with specific local issues or candidates, but at least (and especially if Rome and Turin go left as well) this election has proved that the right is not quite the unbeatable juggernaut I thought it was. It's still not going to be easy to beat at the national level, for a whole host of reasons, but now there's a somewhat plausible path to it if PD and M5S can form a proper alliance.

[FrancoAgo]

Mayoral elections, municipality over 100k inhab., non regional capitol

Latina
Right 48.3%, to run-off
Center-Left 35.7%, to run-off
Local list 5.1% (i suspect this is right leaning)
Far Right 3.3%
M5S 3.3%
Center-left dissident 3.2%
An other three candidates 1.1%

Novara
Right 69.6%, elected
Center-Left 20.5%
M5S 6.4%
Center-Left dissident 2.6%
an other candidate 0.9%

Ravenna
Center-Left+M5S 59.5%, elected
Right 22.5%
Local list 5% (centrist)
Italexit 3.9%
Forza Italia 3.3%
Antivax 2.9%
an other five candidates 2.9%

Rimini
Center-Left 51.3%, elected
Right 32.9%
M5S 8.9%
Antivax 4.1%
an other two candidates 2.8%

Salerno
Center-Left 57.4%, elected
M5S 16.8%
Right 16%
Local list 3.5% (right leaning)
an other five candidates 6.3%

[NewYorkExpress]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini's grandaughter won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

I mean, assorted creeps and loons topping the individual preference vote is not rare at all in Italy, and it's not super meaningful per se. The list vote is far more indicative (and yes, it shows FdI as the most voted party in the Michetti coalition, which was to be expected).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

I mean, assorted creeps and loons topping the individual preference vote is not rare at all in Italy, and it's not super meaningful per se. The list vote is far more indicative (and yes, it shows FdI as the most voted party in the Michetti coalition, which was to be expected).

I mean this detail is not even particularly interesting for curiosity - we already had another granddaughter of Benito in national politics for over two decades with Alessandra Mussolini.

On the other hand I noticed that the article linked to said "even in the left-leaning northern part of the country" and I want to point out this because it is such obvious bullsh**t. Just because FdI and its predecessor political traditions are weaker in the North it doesn't mean the North is left-leaning. Ah yes, the famed leftist strongholds of checks notes Veneto, eastern and northern Lombardy, southern Piedmont... give me a break.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yesterday a protest against the COVID green pass in Rome was taken over by Forza Nuova (small unironically neofascist party) gangs who assaulted the police and most notably vandalized the main building of CGIL, the more historically leftist of the three big labour unions in Italy. Perhaps even worse, in a separate incident a man showed himself at a hospital after being wounded in the clashes with the police, but then proceeded to assault the emergency room together with a significant group of other rioters.

The strongest reaction comes from Emanuele Fiano, PD Deputy (who incidentally is Jewish and as far as I know the only Jewish member of the Chamber), who has announced he will propose in Parliament to dissolve Forza Nuova and similar groups.

[NewYorkExpress]

The frontrunner in the race for Mayor of Rome, Enrico Michetti, has been forced to apologize for comments on the Holocaust that some have deemed Anti-Semitic.

A leading candidate for mayor in Rome has apologized to Italy’s Jewish community over an article he wrote last year in which he suggested that victims of mass murders other than the Holocaust gain less attention because they “didn’t own banks.”

Jewish community leaders and others had decried the comments by Enrico Michetti, a radio host who is the center-right coalition’s candidate in the October 17 and 18 mayoral election. He received more than 30 percent of votes in the election’s first round earlier this month, more than any other candidate.

“Each year, 40 Holocaust-related movies are shot, trips and cultural initiatives of all sorts are financed to commemorate that horrible persecution, and up to here, I have nothing to say,” Michetti wrote at the time on the website of the radio station where he is a host. “But I wonder, why the same pity and the same consideration are not given to the dead killed in the foibe massacres [of Italians by Yugoslav Partisans], in the refugee camps, and in the mass murders that still take place in the world?”



Among the answers he offered: “Perhaps because they did not own banks, perhaps because they did not belong to lobbies capable of deciding the destinies of the planet.”

[CumbrianLefty]

There's still a lot of it about, unfortunately.....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's so deeply embedded in the cultures of most societies that you have to despair, you really do. But these remarks are even worse than 'usual' - they ought to be instantly career-ending.

[Flyersfan232]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

could lega still end up with more seat in the next election base on geography?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Interestingly, Benitio Mussolini won the most votes in the City Council elections in Rome.

The granddaughter of former Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini has won a second term as city councillor in Rome, reportedly bringing in more votes than any other candidate.

Rachelle Mussolini belongs to the far-right political party Brothers of Italy, which has roots in postwar neofascism and, after formerly being somewhat of a fringe party, is rising in popularity.

This year, Mussolini racked in 8,200 votes, compared to only 657 in 2016. Support for Brothers of Italy has gone up, even in the left-leaning northern part of the country.

A perfect example of what is mentioned above: that the polls are right in that Lega no longer monopolizes the Right. FdI on the rise, and likely more in the south and centre rather than the north.

could lega still end up with more seat in the next election base on geography?

While taking fewer votes than FdI? Perhaps, it also depends on candidate selection within the right-wing coalition. But only if the two parties come reasonably close.

[MRCVzla]

Runoffs or "ballotaggio" are happening between today and tomorrow Monday, meanwhile last week some first-round local elections was hold in the autonomous regions, as the possible ban of radical-neofascists parties is discussed, but one thing happened under the table, an express constitutional reform has come into force on the reduction of the voting age in the Senate in which young people between 18-25 years old will also be able to vote in elections for the Upper House.

In fact, it was in force since the parliament approved the reform in July but until now, no one had requested that a confirmatory referendum be held as happened last year when the reduction in the number of parliamentarians was approved, once the 3-month term has expired to request, the reform has already been validated.

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1448659332460003338

Yesterday the deadline to ask for a confirmatory referendum on the constitutional reform that raises the minimum age to vote for the Senate from 25 to 18 years old.
The reform is now officially in force: from the next general election the two Chambers will thus have the same electoral base.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've been disenfranchised twice because of this stupid age restriction (I was a few days short of 25 when the 2018 election happened) and this comes just too late for me, but glad to see this injustice corrected.

On the other hand, this makes Italian bicameralism even more useless than it already was...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout at noon was 9.73%, down from 12.18% in the first round. This doesn't bode well...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Turnout at noon was 9.73%, down from 12.18% in the first round. This doesn't bode well...

Turnout is always lower in runoffs. This is perhaps unfortunate, but there is no reason to fret now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout in at 7pm:
- Rome: 25.28% (-4.22 from the first round)
- Turin: 25% (-4.29)
- All cities: 26.71% (-4.94)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In a bit of local news intersecting with national policy, I just learnt that the power plant in my city of La Spezia, once one of the biggest coal plants in Europe, should finally stop using coal at the very end of this year - sooner than previous plans and even sooner than what is set to be the national deadline of 2025. It may or may not continue as a natural gas plant, and hopefully it will be later on converted into one using renewable energies (solar?).