Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. The final draft of the Recovery Plan which will make use of the EU funds has been approved and should be in the process of being vetted in Bruxelles right now, but I don't know about the technical details. I skimmed through it and it sounds pretty cool. The allocation of funds is divided into six parts: digitalization, innovation, culture and tourism; ecological transition and green policies; infrastructure and transport; education and research; cohesion and inclusion; healthcare. The ecological part has been allocated the most funds and it is not close (as we had known for long), but all the six are pretty big - at least 20 billion euros each. The infrastructure and transport part has a massive focus on trains and a significant focus on the South, and I being who I am, I was euphoric when I read that.

2. The Ligurian regional president, Giovanni Toti, who had broke from Forza Italia a couple years and founded his own tiny party called Cambiamo!, has decided to join forces with Venice mayor Luigi Brugnaro and former FI dinosaur Gaetano Quagliariello. They have also managed to scoop up a surprising number of members of Parliament, especially Deputies snatched from Forza Italia - currently the new group numbers 23 in the Chamber. Coraggio Italia sits at around 2% in its first polls. Gah, I'd rather not have such a character as regional president.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. It looks like Salvini proposed a "federation" of Forza Italia and Lega, Berlusconi replied favourably, and then backtracked after most FI regional coordinators were seething mad at this, which stalled everything. Now among other things a meeting between the two parties to discuss the local elections has been canceled. This, of course, must be understood in the context of Lega and FI being together in government, as opposed to FdI, and the latter party having almost reached Lega in the polls. In short, another episode of big spicy right-wing infighting.

2. I think I should mention that this hilarious parliamentary group was very short-lived and disbanded at the end of March, including Tatjana Rojc going back to the PD group. What an absolutely pointless operation lmao

3. I am not sure I had ever realized how making so many consecutive posts sucks. But Antonio has a doctoral dissertation to write and as long as the non-Italians don't have much to say this thread will continue that way.

[Conservatopia]

It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

I appreciate that you opt for the #girlboss-led hard right over the overgrown-Call of Duty-bro-led hard right.

[Conservatopia]

It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

I appreciate that you opt for the #girlboss-led hard right over the overgrown-Call of Duty-bro-led hard right.

I'm such a simp right?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It seems a shame for Batty to make lots of posts in a row so I'll break it up by saying:

Go Meloni !!1!!1!

I appreciate that you opt for the #girlboss-led hard right over the overgrown-Call of Duty-bro-led hard right.

I'm such a simp right?

Apparently. On an unrelated note, I can't express exactly how irritating it is to be called "Batty".

[Geoffrey Howe]

FdI seem completely nutty.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

FdI seem completely nutty.

Do they seem more completely nutty than Lega to you?

[Geoffrey Howe]

FdI seem completely nutty.

Do they seem more completely nutty than Lega to you?

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

FdI seem completely nutty.

Do they seem more completely nutty than Lega to you?

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

Mine has always been that their rise was a reaction to Salvini overplaying his hand and becoming a tired thing after his move in August 2020 spectacularly backfired. I don't think Salvini was seen as "selling out" at least until his party joined the Draghi government. I am not sure how many Italians see Lega as more moderate than FdI - I am not one of them in any case.

[Geoffrey Howe]

FdI seem completely nutty.

Do they seem more completely nutty than Lega to you?

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

Mine has always been that their rise was a reaction to Salvini overplaying his hand and becoming a tired thing after his move in August 2020 spectacularly backfired. I don't think Salvini was seen as "selling out" at least until his party joined the Draghi government. I am not sure how many Italians see Lega as more moderate than FdI - I am not one of them in any case.

I don’t follow Italian politics closely, but there was an interesting article about it in the Economist; also, their rise in the polls is a mirror image of Lega’s fall.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

FdI seem completely nutty.

Do they seem more completely nutty than Lega to you?

My impression was that their rise was a reaction to Salvini becoming “too moderate” or “selling out.”

Mine has always been that their rise was a reaction to Salvini overplaying his hand and becoming a tired thing after his move in August 2020 spectacularly backfired. I don't think Salvini was seen as "selling out" at least until his party joined the Draghi government. I am not sure how many Italians see Lega as more moderate than FdI - I am not one of them in any case.

I don’t follow Italian politics closely, but there was an interesting article about it in the Economist; also, their rise in the polls is a mirror image of Lega’s fall.

Oh, I perfectly realize the second part - and it probably would be shocking if it were not so - I just think that Salvini has revealed himself as a bad strategist and has seen his novelty wear off somewhat.

[MRCVzla]

2. The Ligurian regional president, Giovanni Toti, who had broke from Forza Italia a couple years and founded his own tiny party called Cambiamo!, has decided to join forces with Venice mayor Luigi Brugnaro and former FI dinosaur Gaetano Quagliariello. They have also managed to scoop up a surprising number of members of Parliament, especially Deputies snatched from Forza Italia - currently the new group numbers 23 in the Chamber. Coraggio Italia sits at around 2% in its first polls. Gah, I'd rather not have such a character as regional president.

When they presented the group, Toti and Brugnaro literally sayed "Thank you Silvio for leading the moderate center-right, but your time is up...". The group also has 7 senators (6 from the Idea-Cambiamo! sub-component in Mixed Group, and they added former Liguria president Sandro Biassotti from FI). It's very europeist and supports Draghi cabinet. Note apart to say of the 10 MP who formed the Cambiamo!-Popolo Protagonista (a christian democrat splinter from M5S) sub-component, 2 MP not joined the new CI group and still in the Mixed Group.

On election notes, along the administrative/local and Calabria regional elections, in September also will held 2 by-elections from the Chamber, the Siena district who has months vacant and other one in Rome (held in 2018 by M5S, MP for the district left the seat days ago). Rumors says that Enrico Letta and Giuseppe Conte will potentially be the candidates for the CSX+M5S alliance in that districts.

Alongside Recovery Fund, a hot topic in Italian politics in the last months it's the known as "DDL Zan" (Law Decree Zan) named after proponent PD MP Alessandro Zan, the bill is against any type of discrimination for the LGBT+ community (or "anti homophobia"), and "suprisly", opinion polls showed overall support for the bill, even by most of the center-right voters

In a last, but sadly note, this week passed away Guglielmo Epifani, MP for Liberi and Eguali and also brief PD leader during 2013 (between Bersani and Renzi terms), also was the first socialist to lead the CGIL, a notorious workers central, may he RIP.

[Oryxslayer]

My impression was always that the support for Lega in the polls was weak, but not in the traditional sense. Lega, as a northern party, was never a perfect fit for the southern conservatives and populists, but after the decline of Forza it was the only horse in town. The FdI have now stepped into that vacuum.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

[FrancoAgo]

Alongside Recovery Fund, a hot topic in Italian politics in the last months it's the known as "DDL Zan" (Law Decree Zan) named after proponent PD MP Alessandro Zan

DDL mean Disegno di Legge, so i think the right translation is proposed Bill or draft law

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Some updates on the Calabrian regional election:

- Today the centre-right coalition made official the choice of Roberto Occhiuto (who, again, is a Deputy for Forza Italia and the brother of the mayor of Cozenza) as their candidate to the presidency.
- Carlo Tansi, after months of support to and work together with Luigi De Magistris, recently broke with him and apparently has decided to run again with his civic list like he did in 2020. De Magistris is still running himself, of course.
- Italia Viva looks likely to present a candidate of their own, separate from the main centre-left one, possibly Senator Ernesto Magorno.
- Still nothing definitive in the centre-left coalition; most significantly, Nicola Irto, whom I had mentioned being the most likely name to lead the coalition, has officially renounced.

At this point I think it is safe to conclude that Roberto Occhiuto is by far the most likely next president of Calabria.

[Conservatopia]

Sgarbi-mentum incoming and LOUD.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Sgarbi-mentum incoming and LOUD.

It is not even clear if he is actually going to run in Calabria, or if he prefers the Rome mayoral election, or neither. But if you have read my post about his crazy political career, this is hardly surprising.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Today there are the centre-left coalition electoral type event primaries for mayor of Rome. The local PD has endorsed former Minister of the Economy and Finance Roberto Gualtieri, therefore I fully expect him to win against the closest opposition, represented by Giovanni Caudo, a centre-left independent currently serving as president of Municipio III [north-east Rome].

Meanwhile, the centre-right officialized a few days ago the choice of lawyer Enrico Michetti as their candidate, and the way our national treasure Sgarbi fits into that appears to be that he has renounced to be a candidate himself in exchange for being named assessore of Culture in case Michetti wins.

I will make a longer post on the race presumably tomorrow after the centre-left primaries' result is known.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh well. Roberto Gualtieri unsurprisingly won the centre-left nomination in Rome, so we now should have the final list of main contenders to the mayoralty of the largest city and capital of Italy:

1. Roberto Gualtieri, Deputy for the single-member Roma Centro/Trionfale constituency and former Minister of the Economy and Finance. Supported by PD and various other minor left and centre-left parties.
2. Enrico Michetti, lawyer and law professor, with no previous active political experience. Supported by FI, Lega, FdI - the entire centre-right coalition.
3. Virginia Raggi, incumbent mayor. Supported by M5S.
4. Carlo Calenda, member of the European Parliament and former Minister for Economic Development. Supported by Azione, Italia Viva and +E.

Recent first-round polling suggests that Michetti and Gualtieri are roughly tied for first place, with Michetti actually maybe slightly ahead, and both have a sizable lead over Raggi in third place and then Calenda in fourth (a very recent poll has Calenda above Raggi, but it was commissioned by Azione so I take it with a huge grain of salt). The likely runoff is therefore between Gualtieri and Michetti, and it looks like the former has the upper hand.
This would be an awfully big turn from 2016, when Raggi got 35% in the first round and then won the runoff with two thirds of the vote, but not a surprising one considering her significant unpopularity (and the fact that M5S has in general less support now than it had back then). However it would also be par for the course for recent Rome mayors, considering how Gianni Alemanno got crushed in the 2013 runoff only for his defeater Ignazio Marino to face an ignoble early end to his term followed by the aforementioned disaster of PD's candidate in the 2016 runoff.

A couple polls I have seen also had crosstabs for subsections of the city. One of them I would discard because I couldn't find how the various zones were defined and the results looked bunk (Raggi doing the best by far in north Rome? the opposite for Michetti? colour me skeptical); the other one however was pretty informative. It confirmed my presumptions in that it showed a centre-left vote distribution that is less strongly centralized and gentrified than in 2018/2019 thanks mostly to Calenda stealing votes of ~rich liberals~ (watch out for Municipio II).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.

[Flyersfan232]

I would like to mention that a few days ago a poll came out which was the first one in more than two years and a half not to have Lega in first place, and also likely the first one ever to have Fratelli d'Italia above Lega, although both hard right parties were below PD. This was somewhat of an outlier of course, for the Democratic Party in particular, but it is symbolic. At this point I expect to see polls with FdI as the first party pretty soon. This is liable to have a significant effect within the right wing.

And so it has happened. In the last couple days we have gotten a poll with Lega and Fratelli d'Italia tied for first place, and then one with FdI leading if only by a tenth of a percentage point, for the first time ever. This is historic, although what will come next remains to be seen. Still the rise of Giorgia Meloni continues.

salvini pulls out of the draghl government?