Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody in Italy is thinking about electoral politics at the moment (well, I'm sure the politicians are, but they're making an effort to hide it at least). The numbers we're seeing at the moment are meaningless and will almost certainly change as the situation does. And of course, there's no way to hold any elections at the moment. So all political talk at the moment is baseless speculation.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Nobody in Italy is thinking about electoral politics at the moment (well, I'm sure the politicians are, but they're making an effort to hide it at least).

As opposed to Poland, where the government appears hell-bent on going forward with the presidential election in May, which kind of makes sense from the political standpoint. If delayed, the people would fully experienced the economic downturn in meantime and become more likely to punish the ruling party in the polls. Not to mention PiS has easier time in mobilizing its' core electorate the pandemic notwithstanding.

Sorry for being off-topic, just found the contrast interesting.

[Harlow]

Can someone give me a brief summary on the fundamental differences between a Lega voter and a Fratelli d'Italia voter? Have people moved to FdI mainly because of Lega's attempted dissolution move last summer? Or is their new support coming from right-wing M5S supporters angry at M5S forming government with the Democrats? Some combination of both?

Edit: This seems to have been answered on the previous pages. √

[Antonio the Sixth]

The regional and local elections will probably be postponed to October, fwiw.

[MRCVzla]

Well, to help update this post, next month, on September 20 and 21, will be held the pending regional and local (administrative) elections, plus the Constitutional Referendum about cutting parliamentarians.

Seven regions are called to the polls; Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany, Marche, Campania, Puglia, plus an early election in the Aosta Valley, of the first six regions, 4 are hold of the center-left and 2 are controlled by the center-right. Veneto and Liguria are safe for the Cdx, Tuscany would remain a safe stronghold for the Csx, Campania is likely hold for the Csx, while the fiercest battles would be in Marche and Puglia (currently ruled by the Csx). Regarding electoral alliances, Renzi's party (IV) will run separate candidates against the center-left in Veneto, Liguria and Puglia, while also in Liguria, will be repeated the alliance experiment between PD (center-left) and the M5S with a consensus civic candidate (despite as it turned out last time in Umbria).

Regarding the issue of cutting parliamentarians, a recent poll came out these days giving the advantage to the YES by 72-28, although the validity will depend on the participation and how close the question will be through the days, most of the major parties support the YES despite of notable internal fractions on the subject, while several of these individuals and parliamentarians of those parties along with minor parties of various ideologies or civil associations will campaign in favor of the NO. The reform seeks to reduce the composition of Parliament, from 630 to 400 seats in the "Chamber" and from 315 to 200 elected seats in the Senate, plus a limit of 5 appointed senators for life.

Also, two by-elections for the Senate will also be held in a Veneto district as well as another in Sardinia, as the senators who were elected in 2018 have passed away in recent months, an FDI senator in the Villafranca di Verona district, as well as a Senator of the M5S in the district of Sassari, in the latter the "pentastellatos" will run with a common candidate together with the center-left.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For what it's worth yesterday I was able to speak to a member of the Chamber of Deputies of Lega.
He said that the M5S members of Parliament are the first who privately would like the Constitutional Referendum to fail. (He is against the cut to the number of members of Parliament)



My take on the regions is this:
Veneto - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Liguria - Almost Safe Centre-right
Marche - Tossup
Puglia - Tossup
Toscana - Likely Centre-left
Campania - Likely Centre-left
Aosta Valley - ??

My take on the by-elections:
Villafrance di Verona - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Sassari - Tossup? Sardinia has been very weird as of lately



P. S. This is my first post here. I don't know how much I will interact with this thread because I kind of have an instinctive distrust for foreigners discussing Italian politics. To be fair I also have an instinctive distrust for Italians discussing Italian politics. I don't know. The less people mention Salvini or Conte or whomever, the better.

[El Betico]

For what it's worth yesterday I was able to speak to a member of the Chamber of Deputies of Lega.
He said that the M5S members of Parliament are the first who privately would like the Constitutional Referendum to fail. (He is against the cut to the number of members of Parliament)



My take on the regions is this:
Veneto - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Liguria - Almost Safe Centre-right
Marche - Tossup
Puglia - Tossup
Toscana - Likely Centre-left
Campania - Likely Centre-left
Aosta Valley - ??

My take on the by-elections:
Villafrance di Verona - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Sassari - Tossup? Sardinia has been very weird as of lately



P. S. This is my first post here. I don't know how much I will interact with this thread because I kind of have an instinctive distrust for foreigners discussing Italian politics. To be fair I also have an instinctive distrust for Italians discussing Italian politics. I don't know. The less people mention Salvini or Conte or whomever, the better.

If this can make you feel safer, I am half Italian on my mother's side and almost a native speaker...I saw the most recent polls, and it seems that Marche Region is instead likely centre-right and Tuscany a tossup with only a slight centre-left leaning tendency...are these polls really reliable? I found them on the governative poll-collecting site www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it....sort of rcp polls, only directly owned by the government, from what i see. For what is worth, I have Italian leftist friends worried about Tuscany...anyway,  the polls show that both Fitto and Ceccardi( Apulia and Tuscany centre-right candidates) are in the low 40s...so if many 5S voters decide to go for the left, like they did in Emilia Romagna, victory is all but assured. Don't know why at least in Marche centre-left and M5S aren't running together.

[FrancoAgo]

It's easy to end 6-1 for the rights (Campania to the PD coalition)
3-3 will be a win for the PD coalition (with Aosta to local parties)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

If this can make you feel safer, I am half Italian on my mother's side and almost a native speaker...I saw the most recent polls, and it seems that Marche Region is instead likely centre-right and Tuscany a tossup with only a slight centre-left leaning tendency...are these polls really reliable? I found them on the governative poll-collecting site www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it....sort of rcp polls, only directly owned by the government, from what i see. For what is worth, I have Italian leftist friends worried about Tuscany...anyway,  the polls show that both Fitto and Ceccardi( Apulia and Tuscany centre-right candidates) are in the low 40s...so if many 5S voters decide to go for the left, like they did in Emilia Romagna, victory is all but assured. Don't know why at least in Marche centre-left and M5S aren't running together.

I go to that site frequently but I haven't in days so I had not seen those polls.
Italian regional polls are a bit crappy anyways, but I'll take what we have.

Leftists worried about Tuscany per se should chill out. Yes, Tuscany has always been governed by the left, but that to me is only relatively meaningful. I don't see much difference between, say, losing Apulia but keeping Tuscany, and vice versa. It's not like rightists would cry over themselves if the centre-left won in Lombardy in 2023.

For the M5S thing, Tuscany should be the kind of region where most end up voting centre-left. Apulia, which like all the South has a higher base for them, I don't think so.

They are not always running together because broadly speaking large segments of both parties actually hate the other party's guts.

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In ogni caso, interessante trovare un utente spagnolo che è mezzo italiano e conosce la lingua quasi come una lingua madre.

[El Betico]

Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

I just love Vincenzo De Luca. When he speaks he produces gold nuggets constantly. I am glad Campanians seem to think like me.
In Tuscany Susanna Ceccardi is showing to be a better candidate than Lucia Borgonzoni, who was notoriously absent on the campaign trail and seemed like a Salvini sideshow.

[MRCVzla]

Tuscany has a particularity compared to the rest of the Italian regions, since it provides the possibility of a second round (as happens in local elections) if the candidate/coalition leading the first round is below 50% and the candidate/coalition in 2nd place exceeds 40% of the votes, whoever wins the runoff, gets the Regional Presidency and the majority award for the Regional Council.

According to the polls, this seems to be the case with MEP Ceccardi (cdx) overcoming that threshold and posing a certain threat to the dominance that the center-left has historically had in the region (currently represented by incumbent Regional Council president Giani). Although exists the "wild card" from where the M5S votes would go, that scenario could prevent Salvini's candidate from winning.

Apulia would remain as the other region tossup with the dispute between MEP Fitto (cdx) and the incumbent governor Emiliano (csx), there is a disjoint vote in that region and many M5S voters would tip the balance in favor of Emiliano (very close to the grillinos).

While it seems that Marche is going to turn to the center right with MP Acquaroli.

[SPQR]

Well well well, lots to say as we are a week away from the elections.

Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

I just love Vincenzo De Luca. When he speaks he produces gold nuggets constantly. I am glad Campanians seem to think like me.
In Tuscany Susanna Ceccardi is showing to be a better candidate than Lucia Borgonzoni, who was notoriously absent on the campaign trail and seemed like a Salvini sideshow.

Lega has learned from Emilia Romagna - Ceccardi is just as much of a not-quite-cunning extremis as Borgonzoni, but they're hiding it better. Also, Salvini not going around ringing at the door of presumed drug dealers is helping.

Overall, my current predictions are the following:

Veneto - Zaia has already won. The only question is whether Zaia's civic list will get more votes than Lega - Salvini is very much afraid of that. "Fun" fact: center-left candidate and Padua mayor, Lorenzoni, got Covid last week, and is unable to campaign - he collapsed on a live stream only a few days ago.

Liguria - it was supposed to be a tight race, but Toti (center-right) will win easily. This is the only region where PD and M5S field a common candidate, but they only did so at the last second and unconvincingly., and so even though Toti is far from being unbeatable, this is safe center-right.

Marche - "the Italian Ohio", as some newspapers said. But they also said it about Umbria, and it ended up being a landslide for the right. Same here, probably - the right is fielding an Fdi and pretty far-right candidate, but PD and M5S are fielding different candidates, and in a region where M5S has always been pretty strong they simply stand no chance divided.

Campania - solid PD. It's De Luca (PD) vs Caldoro (right) for the third time in a row, they each won once. De Luca has gained even further popularity during the Covid lockdown, and while a few months ago Zingaretti didn't want him as a candidate in order to ally with M5S, now he's thanking God that De Luca exists and will win at least one region for PD.

Puglia - tilt right. Fitto (former governor in the 2000's) seems to have gained traction, while incumbent Emiliano, a populist who has always tried to court M5S and has tried every trick up his sleeve (including paying newly married couples in Puglia a few thousand euros last month), will pay the fact that both M5S and Italia Viva will run separately. Quite ironic that Emiliano might lose because of both M5S, which he has always loved, and Renzi, who he has always loathed.

Tuscany - tilt PD. The peculiar electoral law has already been mentioned, Ceccardi (Lega) too. PD are fielding a weak candidate, Giani, whose only merit is not being the incumbent governor (Rossi, who broke with PD a few years ago). Tuscany has being trending right for years, 6 of the 10 provincial capitals have center-right mayors, but my gut feeling is that the center-left will win by a razor--tight margin.

Val d'Aosta - honestly, no clue. There is no polling whatsoever.

[SPQR]

What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

[Umengus]

What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

I think that some regionals polls have shown the no winning...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Lega has learned from Emilia Romagna - Ceccardi is just as much of a not-quite-cunning extremis as Borgonzoni, but they're hiding it better. Also, Salvini not going around ringing at the door of presumed drug dealers is helping.

Overall, my current predictions are the following:

Veneto - Zaia has already won. The only question is whether Zaia's civic list will get more votes than Lega - Salvini is very much afraid of that. "Fun" fact: center-left candidate and Padua mayor, Lorenzoni, got Covid last week, and is unable to campaign - he collapsed on a live stream only a few days ago.

Liguria - it was supposed to be a tight race, but Toti (center-right) will win easily. This is the only region where PD and M5S field a common candidate, but they only did so at the last second and unconvincingly., and so even though Toti is far from being unbeatable, this is safe center-right.

Marche - "the Italian Ohio", as some newspapers said. But they also said it about Umbria, and it ended up being a landslide for the right. Same here, probably - the right is fielding an Fdi and pretty far-right candidate, but PD and M5S are fielding different candidates, and in a region where M5S has always been pretty strong they simply stand no chance divided.

Campania - solid PD. It's De Luca (PD) vs Caldoro (right) for the third time in a row, they each won once. De Luca has gained even further popularity during the Covid lockdown, and while a few months ago Zingaretti didn't want him as a candidate in order to ally with M5S, now he's thanking God that De Luca exists and will win at least one region for PD.

Puglia - tilt right. Fitto (former governor in the 2000's) seems to have gained traction, while incumbent Emiliano, a populist who has always tried to court M5S and has tried every trick up his sleeve (including paying newly married couples in Puglia a few thousand euros last month), will pay the fact that both M5S and Italia Viva will run separately. Quite ironic that Emiliano might lose because of both M5S, which he has always loved, and Renzi, who he has always loathed.

Tuscany - tilt PD. The peculiar electoral law has already been mentioned, Ceccardi (Lega) too. PD are fielding a weak candidate, Giani, whose only merit is not being the incumbent governor (Rossi, who broke with PD a few years ago). Tuscany has being trending right for years, 6 of the 10 provincial capitals have center-right mayors, but my gut feeling is that the center-left will win by a razor--tight margin.

Val d'Aosta - honestly, no clue. There is no polling whatsoever.

Zaia will win a landslide. Also, I am sure that many voters of Zaia's civic list are normally left-leaning or M5S-leaning voters. Which I suppose is part of what frightens Salvini. The other part is that Zaia is the next-in-line to take his leader seat.

I would like Toti to lose but very likely the polls are not off by that much. I certainly won't vote for him.

I don't know what "Italian Ohio" is supposed to mean, but it was clear from 2018 that Umbria is not a red region anymore, and Marche has actually never been one.

My boy De Luca will win. I wish I were Campanian just to vote for him.

Puglia is weird. The polls are very tight. I don't know much about Emiliano to be honest, I do not exactly follow the news much.

Tuscany has not been trending right, come on. The mayor thing is the product of self-sorting, in 2019 PD took more votes than Lega in Tuscany despite winning only 3 out of 10 provinces.
However given the national advantage for the centre-right currently and the fact that Salvini is not doing stupid stunts like the one in Bologna, there is quite a bit of help for the centre-right, so I agree with your gut feeling.

I have noticed a trend in running former governors as candidates. It does not sound very smart considering they were already beaten once.

What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

I mentioned the referendum in my first post!

My gut feeling is that lots and lots of PD voters (even a majority) will vote No anyway. I will probably vote PD and No, for starters.
My father is convinced that Giorgetti or someone will tell Lega voters to vote No but I have no idea.
Probably Yes will pass anyway.

My European MP Brando Benifei voted against the ratification of Yes as the official PD position apparently. It feels good.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

And because I've been there and had a wonderful time, whereas I don't have any personal connection or attachment to Tuscany (yet). But, yes, Umbria the cattocomunista land of saints and Peppones (Pepponi?) is part of it too.

By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

I know, I saw your above post. I'm still grieving places like Northern New York being gone for the Democrats and most of far northern Honshu being gone for the Japanese center-left, so I'll probably be salty about Umbria for a while as well.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

And because I've been there and had a wonderful time, whereas I don't have any personal connection or attachment to Tuscany (yet). But, yes, Umbria the cattocomunista land of saints and Peppones (Pepponi?) is part of it too.

By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

I know, I saw your above post. I'm still grieving places like Northern New York being gone for the Democrats and most of far northern Honshu being gone for the Japanese center-left, so I'll probably be salty about Umbria for a while as well.

Cattocomunisti =
However Don Camillo and Peppone was set in Emilia-Romagna, not Umbria.
Funnily I have been to Umbria only once in my life - I was five years old and I remember zero.

[El Betico]

Umbria is not "Italian Ohio", is Italian West Virginia, if any.

That said, I am wondering if the most recent crime news, specifically anti-immigrant violence near Rome and anti-LGBT near Naples, are going to play a role in the campaign.

[Edu]

Last week I sent my glorious ballot by mail to vote NO on this ridiculous referendum that will lower the number of hilarious Italian parlamentarians. NOT ON MY WATCH!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

Oh wow, do I really have such an illustrious reputation? I'm honored! I really haven't given this thread the attention it deserves, even before I left, but I'm hoping to change that in the next few days. It will be a useful distraction from what's happening here.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

Oh, congrats!! That's a great commitment, especially right now.

What do you think of the election organization where you are? I've heard that in general things seem to be going fairly well, but it might feel differently on the ground.