Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[bigic]

The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

[El Betico]

Umbria is like Trumbull County or sort of, I think...long-time left-wing stronghold who fell in love with a particular rightist leader...no way a Berlusconi-led centre-right could have won there, like no other Republican presidential candidate could have won Trumbull and similar ones.

To complete the argument: I think it's the poorest non-Southern region, so I don't think immigration in much of an issue there...Salvini success in this former Communist stronghold should have other reasons.

[Umengus]

The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.

[Umengus]

Lega: 38,5%
FDI: 11,0%
Forza Italia: 5,8%
Civiche Tesei: 6,7%
PD: 19,0%
M5S: 8,6%
Civica Bianconi: 2,4%
Sinistra: 1,4%
Verdi: 1,4%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Lega: 38,5%
FDI: 11,0%
Forza Italia: 5,8%
Civiche Tesei: 6,7%
PD: 19,0%
M5S: 8,6%
Civica Bianconi: 2,4%
Sinistra: 1,4%
Verdi: 1,4%

So, the center-left forces are performing at about their national polling averages (itself profoundly saddening given that it's Umbria), but M5S is bombing harder than the Allies at Monte Cassino?

[El Betico]

The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.

My bet: Salvini shy-voters, in particular if they are of Southern origin.

[SPQR]

The Right's victory was expected - Umbria was the region perhaps hit the hardest by the economic crisis, from which it hasn't recovered yet, and the center-left after 50 years of local administration had been losing for the last 5 years.
Even as Renzi was winning 2014's elections with 40%, PD were losing Perugia to Forza Italia.

Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

[jaichind]

The Italian right seems to overperform the polls in this case? This seemed to be a tight race according to the polls...

the last polls was in right favor  but not so much. In the last (Eu and regionals) elections, I observed that the italian polls tended to underestimated the right.

My bet: Salvini shy-voters, in particular if they are of Southern origin.

I think part of it must be tactical voting by Ricci for the Center-Right bloc

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

Yeah, the biggest loser here (other than the people of Umbria) is M5S, not only because of the utter wipeout in the election itself but because it's led by a nitwit who'll probably take this as evidence that his party is Better Off Going It Alone.

[El Betico]

Allied with the centre-left, M5S is the new Communist Refoundation in terms of votes received( during my Italian University Years, I really had a political crush on its leader Bertinotti...I thought high of him even on a European level, he's totally disappeared).

[jaichind]

With around 5% sections reporting it is

Centre-right       58.75%
Centre-left–M5S 36.83%
Ricci                   2.03%

which seems to match exit polls

[El Betico]

Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

Yeah, the biggest loser here (other than the people of Umbria) is M5S, not only because of the utter wipeout in the election itself but because it's led by a nitwit who'll probably take this as evidence that his party is Better Off Going It Alone.

"Il patto civico per l'Umbria lo abbiamo sempre considerato un laboratorio, ma l'esperimento non ha funzionato. Il Movimento nella sua storia non aveva mai provato una strada simile. E questa esperienza testimonia che potremo davvero rappresentare la terza via solo guardando oltre i due poli contrapposti"lo scrive il M5S in un post sulla propria pagina di Facebook.

"We always thought of the "Civic pact for Umbria" as a laboratory, but the experiment didn't work. The Movement had never tried before a similar approach in its history. And this experience shows that we can really be the Third Way only looking outside of the two opposite political poles", writes M5S on a note on its official Facebook page.

Sorry for possibile bad translating, but roughly this is basically what it says. They were pretty fast to realize your prediction.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

Yeah, the biggest loser here (other than the people of Umbria) is M5S, not only because of the utter wipeout in the election itself but because it's led by a nitwit who'll probably take this as evidence that his party is Better Off Going It Alone.

"Il patto civico per l'Umbria lo abbiamo sempre considerato un laboratorio, ma l'esperimento non ha funzionato. Il Movimento nella sua storia non aveva mai provato una strada simile. E questa esperienza testimonia che potremo davvero rappresentare la terza via solo guardando oltre i due poli contrapposti"lo scrive il M5S in un post sulla propria pagina di Facebook.

"We always thought of the "Civic pact for Umbria" as a laboratory, but the experiment didn't worked. The Movement in its history hadn't try before a similar approach. And this experienxe shows that we can really be the Third Way only looking outside the two opposite political poles", writes M5S in a note on its official Facebook page.

Sorry for possibile bad translating, but roughly this is basically what it says. They were pretty fast to realize your prediction.

You know, maybe they're right about this. I hope they're not because that'll made threading the needle for the anti-leghista forces even harder going forward, but maybe they really did suffer from being seen as an appendage of muh liberal establishment.

[El Betico]

List of Italian regional governments after Umbria update

Aosta Valley: coalition of local autonomist parties, led by Union Valdotaine
Piedmont: Centre-right
Lombardy: Centre-right
Liguria: Centre-right( next election on Spring 2020)
Veneto: Centre-right( next election on Spring 2020)
Friuli Venezia-Giulia: Centre-right
Trentino-South Tyrol: no regional government but two provincial ones, in Trento Centre-right, in Bozen SVP with League as junior coalition partner
Emilia-Romagna: Centre-left( next election on January 26th, 2020)
Tuscany: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Umbria: Centre-right
Marche: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Lazio: Centre-left( Nicola Zingaretti)
Abruzzo: Centre-right
Molise: Centre-right
Campania: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Apulia: Centre-left( next election on Spring 2020)
Basilicata: Centre-right
Calabria: Centre-left( next election on December or January, date still unknown)
Sicily: Centre-right
Sardinia: Centre-right

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, this is bad.

Di Maio has already said that the experiment of alliances with PD is over, and frankly, it's hard to fault him. M5S voters will simply not accept electoral alliances of any kind. So whatever benefit there might have been in combining M5S and PD's strength is negated by the fact that M5S's strength just won't transfer here.

The only hope for this government to minimize their defeat (and let's be clear, it will be a defeat, whenever the next elections happen) is to implement an electoral system that's as proportional as possible. There are obvious downsides to this (for one, the voters would probably see it as the desperate trick it is) but it remains the only possible way to ensure that Salvini doesn't hold absolute power after the next vote. I hope they realize the stakes here.

[SPQR]

Apparently half of M5S voters stayed home, 20% went to Lega, just 2% voted PD.

You can make a government out of nowhere, but you can't make electoral alliances from one day to the other, and with no common vision.

[bigic]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1189527640769732613

Higher than MSI ever received (9.2 in 1972 Senate elections).

But it's still lower than the Alleanza Nazionale record (15,7% in 1996).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated topic to something more topical (and fitting to the situation, since Conte has been under so many attacks lately that he's basically turning into a zombie PM).

[Umengus]

Whatever lingering doubts there were remaining about the Governments migration policy, today the Deal between Italy and the Libyan Coast Guard was extended for another three Years, despite the pleas of Human Rights Organisations and rescuers to stop it.
The number of people trying to come and the number drowning has reduced dramatically since the deal was signed, but its a deal with the devil. The Libyan Coast Guard are pretty terrible people, criminals and militia members among them, and routinely accused of doing horrible abuses (UN report) to migrants. They have also shot at rescue ships.

Typical Europe. Preach Human Rights and Democracy, but pay Libya/Morocco/Turkey to do the dirty work where there are no pesky independent courts for people to turn to and no free press to cover it.
Literally way worse than Trump, but claim the moral high ground as the bastion of the enlightened free world or something.

So migrants should stay at home.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Whatever lingering doubts there were remaining about the Governments migration policy, today the Deal between Italy and the Libyan Coast Guard was extended for another three Years, despite the pleas of Human Rights Organisations and rescuers to stop it.
The number of people trying to come and the number drowning has reduced dramatically since the deal was signed, but its a deal with the devil. The Libyan Coast Guard are pretty terrible people, criminals and militia members among them, and routinely accused of doing horrible abuses (UN report) to migrants. They have also shot at rescue ships.

Typical Europe. Preach Human Rights and Democracy, but pay Libya/Morocco/Turkey to do the dirty work where there are no pesky independent courts for people to turn to and no free press to cover it.
Literally way worse than Trump, but claim the moral high ground as the bastion of the enlightened free world or something.

So migrants should stay at home.

Are you familiar with the expression "between the devil and the deep blue sea"?

[rob in cal]

  Any indication of whether the extension provoked much disagreement within the coalition?

[Antonio the Sixth]

  Any indication of whether the extension provoked much disagreement within the coalition?

Not really. They're too busy tearing each other apart over the budget bill.

[MRCVzla]

A little update about several issues
In these weeks the "Sardines" citizen movement has emerged strongly, headed mainly by students, and that after a mass demonstration in Bologna on November 14, they have multiplied throughout Italy from North to South, they are described as people without party flags, but with a clear rival such as anti-fascism and Salvini's ideas.

At the same time there is the whole drama of the elaboration of the "Manovra" (the budgets) and how the gialorosso government tries to have the accounts in order, although other problems arise in the economic (all the -ex- Ilva scandal).

In the electoral, it has already been confirmed that on January 29 there will be regional elections in Emilia Romagna and Calabria, they already have polls from the earlier and seem to indicate a closed race with a slight advantage of the candidate of the center-left and incumbent Regional President Stefano Bonaccini regarding his right-wing rival, Leghista senatrice Lucia Borgonzoni (both had their first debate on TV last Tuesday), the M5S will present candidate and independent lists after a consultation on the Rosseau platform in which a 70% rejected an "electoral break" of the MoVimento in the next regional elections to prepare for the next general election.

This week, has formally presented itself as a political party "Azione" (Action), the rename of "Siamo Europei", the centrist pro-EU movement from Carlo Calenda and Matteo Richetti. While in the orbit of the center-right in its minority centrist area, more possible defections are rumored from Forza Italy, with a Berlusconi that has even suggested not presenting its symbol in a future general election, and a reunification of much of the spectrum of the former DC.
 
And with all the possible referendum flying over there (confirmation of the reduction of parliamentarians, electoral law with pure FPTP...)

[El Betico]

Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.

[crals]

Can somebody please explain the current platform differences between Lega and Fratelli d’Italia?

Lega still wants authonomy for Northern Regions...Hermanos de Italia, I don't think the are big fans of it.

The Lega still wants that? I thought they had basically given up on it when they expanded to the South