Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Oryxslayer]

Is it possible for M5S and PD to make a joint run in a new election? They would likely garner a majority together and given how many ancestral PD voters are now M5S voters, such a merger doesn't seem nearly as problematic as a fascist majority. Push immigration issues to the margins, emphasize economic populism, and anathemize Lega on the places they are weakest politically (their social conservatism, for example).  Why wouldn't that work?

I mentioned above that this is probably Renzi's end goal and why he suddenly changed his tune. PD would be happier with M5S as a junior partner in their left wing tent, rather than the major governing party with PD acting as its junior partner. Two downsides to this approach though: it still wouldn't beat the joint right wing ticket without a little bit of work, and PD would be taking on all the demons and failures of M5S's time in government, a turnoff to tons of voters that are behind the PD recovery. That's not not even considering M5S's position and how them accepting this deal would more or less be the death knell for their party at some point in the future.

[Oryxslayer]

Conte resigns.

[Skye]

Jesus, so what's next, new elections?

[Walmart_shopper]

Jesus, so what's next, new elections?

Whiplash from the PD-M5S government in the works.

[Velasco]

Jesus, so what's next, new elections?

Whiplash from the PD-M5S government in the works.

The decision is in Mattarella's hands

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/20/italy-and-matteo-salvini-face-uncertainty-after-pms-resignation

Mattarella has three options: immediately dissolve parliament and call a snap election; begin consultations with parties to see if a new parliamentary majority can be formed; or install a caretaker government to at least pass Italy’s budget for 2020.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nicola Zingaretti has just spoken, after a meeting of the PD leadership. PD declares itself available to a long-haul government alliance with M5S, but intends to "verify if the conditions for it are present" and is ready to go to new elections if they aren't.

So they're interested in talking with M5S, but want to sell themselves at a high price. Earlier, PD people were saying that they would require a reversal of several policies enacted by the previous government (especially in areas such as security where Salvini has been in the driver's seat for the past year). So the M5S will have to make a bit of a U-turn if they want to avoid elections.

...and just as I was typing, M5S responded with a note that "reminds everyone" that they are the largest party in parliament, implying that they're not going to grovel and sell out on everything. That seems like a standard bargaining strategy.

Next big moment will be tomorrow afternoon, when Mattarella will speak to the delegates from PD, Lega and M5S. Afterwards, he will have to decide if he give someone a mandate to form a new government, calls in more consultations, or dissolves parliament.

[Walmart_shopper]

What are the policy proposals that a PD-M5S coalition could enact that would be popular, politically powerful, and which both sides would agree on? Obviously immigration policy would be swept aside. Could Zingaretti push the Renzi-ite majority in his party for M5S-friendly anti-austerity economic populism in return for a coalition he doesn't much want? Salvini is running a massively religious campaign, which is so odd in a relatively secular and rapidly secularizing country, which Italy is. Could the coalition take him on by enacting popular gay marriage and other socially liberal laws?

[mileslunn]

What are the policy proposals that a PD-M5S coalition could enact that would be popular, politically powerful, and which both sides would agree on? Obviously immigration policy would be swept aside. Could Zingaretti push the Renzi-ite majority in her party for M5S-friendly anti-austerity economic populism in return for a coalition she doesn't much want? Salvini is running a massively religious campaign, which is so odd in a relatively secular and rapidly secularizing country, which Italy is. Could the coalition take him on by enacting popular gay marriage and other socially liberal laws?

With five star movement strongest in South, perhaps some big infrastructure projects or spending to help economy in South could be one area.  Another interesting one, would be to fund Salvini's flat tax of 15% but raising the top tax rate, so while maybe bad economics, that is sort of a left wing populist one.  Spain recently had a big minimum wage increase so perhaps that is another one.  Likewise M5S favoured a Guaranteed annual income so PD could perhaps agree to go along with that.

[rob in cal]

  If I was Salvini I wouldn't have done this breakup, as long as he was still getting 5 stars cooperation on big chunks of his agenda, and as far as I can see it seems that that was the case. I wonder if he is regretting things now.
PD now saying they want 5 star to go along with a repeal of the security decree that was recently passed. Doing so would be a pretty humiliating move on their part, basically showing that they have no deep principals in either direction, voting one month for it, the next month against.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, so things today didn't go quite as planned.

The PD delegation met with Mattarella in the morning, and expressed their availability to form a government with M5S, but set three non-negotiable conditions: 1. the repeal of the two "security decrees", 2. a pre-government deal about the contours of the future budgetary law, and 3. the (at least temporary) shelving of the currently-debated constitutional reform that was supposed to cut the number of Italian MPs by half. These are harsh conditions, especially the third one which is a huge pill to swallow for a shamelessly #populist movement like M5S, but given the current power dynamic between the two they seemed fairly reasonable.

Di Maio, however, clearly didn't see things that way. M5S was invited to Mattarella last (as is protocol for presidential consultations, you go from the smallest parties to the biggest) and most people were expecting them to make the same kind of overtures to the PD. Instead, Di Maio made a surreal speech where he presented a lengthy government program and basically demanded that whoever wants to govern agree to it. He didn't even mention PD. Later rumors started propping up that M5S is keeping talks open with Lega (although nothing concrete has come out in that sense).

Anyway, all this meant was that the consultations ended up in a huge, confusing flop. Mattarella was supposed to speak right after meeting the M5S delegation, but instead he took two additional hours to himself, and eventually came out to (very grudgingly) say that he was giving the parties five more days to get their sh*t together. If nothing comes out of the next round of consultations Tuesday, then he'll dissolve parliament.

M5S is playing with fire if they think they can keep sitting on the fence and acting like everything is owed to them. I don't think for a second that Salvini really wants to patch things up with Di Maio, all he's doing is lure him away from the PD to ensure that we end up having new elections. If Di Maio is dumb enough to fall for it, he can kiss his ass goodbye. Anyway, now the M5S groups have formally voted to open up negotiations with PD, but they're doing so from a position of demanding that the constitutional reform be voted as is, which I really don't think is a serious proposal. We'll see if cooler heads will prevail eventually.


Anyway, with this post I've again reached my self-imposed limit, so you won't hear from me for a while. I hope this was helpful to set the stage for whatever comes next though.

[Diouf]

One should never celebrate early electoral reform rumours out of Italy, but would of course be the best possible scenario if this happened:
"The PD was initially reported to be against cutting the number of MPs but is now said to be coming round to the idea, as part of a wider electoral reform restoring 100% proportional representation."

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2019/08/23/m5s-pd-govt-talks-get-off-to-constructive-start_8a4f5b40-84f3-4762-b815-b9fed5ed9ef5.html

[Walmart_shopper]

It appears that Italy now has a left wing government that M5S says will be "a government of discontinuity." Nice, but I actually wonder how dramatic the whiplash will really be. In any case, I think it's a very smart political move.

[Skye]

Looks like a big blow to Salvini's ambitions.

[mileslunn]

Looks like Salvini will have a big egg in his face https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49502232 .

[parochial boy]

Schadenfreude, lol

[FredLindq]

Salvini will be the winner in the long run. Going into opposition with approx. 35% support will suit him well.

[DL]

It has been said that the worst day being in power is always a far better day than the best day of being in opposition. This PD/M5S govrnment could easily last right to 2023 and by then who knows what the world will look like and if salvini will be old news.

I know there are people who say "sure let Salvini take absolute power after an election, then he can get blamed when the economy crashes"...many Germans said the same when the non-Nazi parties decided to let Hitler have a turn in power in 1933. In fact the Communists took the attitude of "after the nazis it will be our turn" ..how did that turn out 

[Antonio the Sixth]

All the signs now point to a M5S-PD government. Both parties have officially given the green light to a new Conte government, and after meeting them this afternoon, Mattarella announced that he will receive Conte tomorrow at 9:30 am, almost certainly to formally give him the task of forming the government. In one of the most baffling developments of this surreal Italian saga, Conte somehow emerges from this crisis stronger than ever. He started off as Di Maio and Salvini's jointly-owned puppet, and was supposed to be gone after this whole weird experience came crashing down. Instead, he's not only going to stay at his post, but his role in the yellow-red government will probably be far more active than in the yellow-green one. This is partly due to the international stature he's gained over the past year or so (forging his reputation of a serious administrator who guarantees Italy's credibility while carefully treading the line between the established European order and the rising #populist international - that's how you get the endorsement of both Trump and Merkel!). It's also thanks to Grillo's (and, eventually, Zingaretti's) endorsement of his premiership, which is being read implicitly as a rebuke for Di Maio.

Speaking of Di Maio, the final serious hangup to resolve is his role in the upcoming cabinet. Zingaretti is insisting that there should be only one Deputy PM, from the PD, as the PM is now clearly identified with M5S in a way he wasn't last time. This, of course, would mean a major demotion for Di Maio, who is already about to lose his super-ministry that includes labor, industry and a bunch of others. So he's insisting on keeping his post as Deputy PM, while Zingaretti is insisting that he shouldn't. This time, however, there are indications that M5S is not united behind its leader, as several rumors suggest that many are tired of Di Maio's jockeying for a post. This might include Grillo himself, whose dramatic return to the forefront of M5S politics looks a lot like an implicit rebuke of Di Maio's leadership. The provisional solution to the Di Maio question seems to be to punt everything to Conte and Mattarella. It is, after all, formally the role of the President and his proposed candidate to form a government together. Will they snub Di Maio and risk his ire, or will they accommodate him and risk losing PD's support? And will whichever party loses this battle risk bringing down this newborn government? Stay tuned for the next episode!

The top PD figure in the upcoming government probably won't be Zingaretti, who still doesn't want to be that closely associated with the yellow-red experiment (toward which he was always lukewarm, and only okayed it under heavy pressure from Renzi's camp) and who would rather stay on as president of Lazio as long as he can. So, the most talked-about names for that crucial spot are Dario Franceschini (ex-DC, former Renzian who's taken his distances), or Andrea Orlando (Renzi and Gentiloni's Justice minister who has too turned sour on Renzi since 2017). Both are seasoned politicians, making the idea of this as a "new government" a bit hard to sustain. Substantively, the two parties seems to have an agreement in principle on the basics of a common platform, but we've seen very little of it so far. We know that there will have to be some significant reworking of the security decrees, and that the constitutional reform cutting MPs will take place but won't be immediate as M5S wanted (and it might be used as an occasion to impose a more proportional voting system, which would obviously go a long way toward defusing the Salvini menace).

Salvini, of course, is still crying wolf about the absolute horror of not calling elections when he wanted them called. He's found a common front with Meloni, who has supported new elections since March 5, 2018, and who would be a steadfast ally of Salvini's if such elections occurred. On the other hand, Berlusconi has been far less steadfast, and while he still pays lip service to the idea of a great right-wing alliance, he also never wastes an occasion to send signals that he's displeased with Salvini's anti-EU line. Survival instinct might force Forza Italia to terms with Lega if an election were to happen, but if that isn't the case, Berlusconi might have other opportunities to try to erode Salvini's leadership. Salvini has undeniably been weakened by this botched attempt at toppling Conte, and Lega has taken a noticeable hit in the polls (a loss of around 5 points on average). Of course, it remains the largest party in voting intentions, and summed with FdI it still forms an insurmountable electoral juggernaut under the current voting system (a system which might be short-lived, however, see above). So, Salvini is far from KO but there's no doubt that the past few weeks have weakened his hand.

And on that note, I will again check out and let others pick up from here until I have margins for new posts again. I hope this was a helpful summary.

[windjammer]

Salvini really screwed up himself. Before his gamble, he was the main player of italian politics and was going to win the next elections easily with a potential opposition to him utterly divided. Now he made the opposition united again.

His position got weakened, and I'm saying that as I believe he's still going to win the next election.

[Oryxslayer]

There are time when it is better to be in government, and times when it is better to be in opposition - for example opposition in the UK right now is a far sexier position then government and the Brexit issue. Maybe it will hurt Salvini losing his leavers of power, maybe it will help him to have a full left government as the opposition. Who knows?

And also if PD end up fully stepping into Lega's shoes, maybe the M5S moment will finally be over. The right of the party already bolted for Lega, perhaps the Left will bolt as well for PD.

[rob in cal]

Any idea on who gets inferior ministry, and if pd would it be Minneti again?

[Lord Halifax]

Any idea on who gets inferior ministry, and if pd would it be Minneti again?

Pun intended?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The big problem is the Italian economy is possibly the most dismal in the EU, so a continued failure to promote growth and employment could leave the incumbent government in a pretty bad place.

[Ebsy]

Maybe the conclusion to be drawn is that Salvini is not actually that gifted of a politician?

[Lord Halifax]

-The M5S wants a minimum wage.

Is PD against that?