Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My experience of actually talking to Italian people in Italy about their own politics isn't that extensive, but the general impression that I got when I was there last year was that there actually is a "muh economic anxiety" aspect to the Lega phenomenon of the kind that a lot of people like to exaggerate with the Trump phenomenon. I didn't meet one person who was fixated on the flat tax or whatever, or even who seemed all that personally racist. So at least nine or ten months ago it seemed like the immigrant scapegoating actually was scapegoating in Italy's case, rather than tapping into racism-for-the-sake-of-racism.

I have it on good authority that the toxicity of this scapegoating has much more to do with the fact that the migrant wave of three to six years ago was genuinely very socially disruptive in Italy than it does with any inherent economic "burdensomeness" on the part of the migrants. The assumption that the only or main reason an economy like Italy's (or sub-Saharan Africa's!) might be floundering is lack of productivity on the part of labor is a far-right idea if there ever was one, much more so than generic skepticism of immigration is.

The idea that people not being able to move out until they're forty in this economy is a sign that Italian culture qua Italian culture "isn't worth preserving" is pretty awful as well. If that's a mindset that is common or is plausibly thought to be common among PD grandees and ultras then I honestly can't blame the average Italian for seeking answers to Italy's problems elsewhere.

[Famous Mortimer]

How generous of you (sarcastic) to concede that there are two possible reasons for opposition to immigration: irrational hatred of different skin colors or mistaken belief that more people means more people you are in resource competition with.

Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Additionally, the idea that economies are the result of the people who take part in them is not a far right idea, it is just obviously true.

It is nice of you though (not being sarcastic) to pretend that that isn't true for both whites and non-whites, unlike most other leftists who pretend it's true for economically struggling whites but not for anyone else.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can we maybe try to avoid turning every thread on this board into the same thread? It is getting a little bit tedious.

[Famous Mortimer]

This thread is primarily about MATTEO SALVINI. Immigration gonna come up. If you don't discuss immigration, the thread will literally make no sense. It will be a bunch of people going "why is this guy so popular?" "I got no idea dur dur" "there might be reasons he is popular but no one is allowed to say" "there is no reason he's popular, it's just random! lol"

[Walmart_shopper]

Can we maybe try to avoid turning every thread on this board into the same thread? It is getting a little bit tedious.

It isn't a matter of coincidence that the same debates are regurgitated from country to country. The major divide in Western politics is a nationalist-populist right, on the one hand, and a globalist-liberal center-left tenuously allied with a more populist left. Look at your own country (or mine) for evidence of that. Actually, look at pretty much any country for evidence of that. It's clearly why you see the same narratives being replicated from thread to thread. I actually think it's an interesting discussion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To try to bring a little light back into the thread, the maps from last time around:



Unless the polls change quite drastically we can presumably expect the Right landslide in the North and Centre to be repeated and for it to extend deep into the South.



God knows what this will look like this time. But take a look at this map: you will never see, in an advanced Western nation in the 21st century, a clearer example of an incoherent howl of pain and protest take electoral form.



A fiasco of a map, disastrous results everywhere outside the inner cities (which in Italy are rather rich; the social geography of urban Italy is very different to the Western European norm) and absolutely catastrophic - electoral asteroid impact territory, frankly - results in the South. The PD should see at the least a limited rebound and the patterns will be interesting.



The green will deepen and spread and spread and spread. And this map is already a radical departure from what had been the norm.



Replace 'green' with 'blue' and 'spread' with 'shrink'.



Current polling shows these absolute charmers often doubling their support from last year. But the general pattern will remain, I suspect, that of Lazio supporters and other fascists with expense accounts.



Probably this will look much the same.



Now RIP but their votes have to go somewhere. Some to the new list with the remains of the increasingly hilariously named Communist Refoundation Party, but will others head back to the PD? We shall see...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

I can’t speak for the Roman suburbs, but southern Lazio has a lot of descendants of fascist true believers from Friuli and Veneto who moved there to settle a planned city (today’s Latina) that Mussolini built in the early 30s.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But take a look at this map: you will never see, in an advanced Western nation in the 21st century, a clearer example of an incoherent howl of pain and protest take electoral form.

That's a chillingly excellent description.

(which in Italy are rather rich; the social geography of urban Italy is very different to the Western European norm)

Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being mostly bourgeois). And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

The Roman middle classes did bloody well out of Fascism even if no one else did and this turned over time, as things do, into a political heritage and tradition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So what's the deal with the fascists in Lazio and those Roman suburbs? I know rge reputation of the football clubs ultras,, but still.

I can’t speak for the Roman suburbs, but southern Lazio has a lot of descendants of fascist true believers from Friuli and Veneto who moved there to settle a planned city (today’s Latina) that Mussolini built in the early 30s.

This is correct. Something similar explains the tradition of fascist support in Bolzano, which in 2018 was expressed through a rather... erm... more hardcore vehicle than FdI...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being pretty bourgeois. And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.

German and Scandinavian cities are like British ones but better planned. National stereotypes all round there, I know, I know, but it is true.

Anyway I wasn't thinking so much of patterns of poverty so much as patterns of money, and this is what is unusual about Italian urban life. Consider Paris. The west end of the city proper is extremely rich and most of the rest of the city proper has been thoroughly gentrified since the middle twentieth century, but these areas are far from being the only places where money lives: you have the villa developments at Neuilly and so on, and then further out the various thoroughly suburban (but still flat out rich) municipalities as one keeps out wandering westwards. In most Italian cities, though, money lives in the centre and the geography often looks as if there's a gravitational pull at work - with a few little quirks here and there. Italy hardly lacks for middle class suburbs, of course, but they tend to have a firmly lower middle class quality, even if prosperous - which explains a great deal about political developments in the country in recent decades.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Compare and contrast:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So who are these people who voted Lega for the first time in 2018? Well...



(also relevant for the discussion of rump fascist party electoral geography)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it, though? I thought that it was more the US and UK that differed from the Continental European norm in concentrating the poor in their urban centers. French urban centers are almost always well-off with the working-class (whether immigrant or native) concentrated in the suburbs (usually the Eastern ones, with the Western also being pretty bourgeois. And I think urban centers are also largely well-off in places like Spain, Germany and the Scandinavians, but I might be wrong.

German and Scandinavian cities are like British ones but better planned. National stereotypes all round there, I know, I know, but it is true.

Anyway I wasn't thinking so much of patterns of poverty so much as patterns of money, and this is what is unusual about Italian urban life. Consider Paris. The west end of the city proper is extremely rich and most of the rest of the city proper has been thoroughly gentrified since the middle twentieth century, but these areas are far from being the only places where money lives: you have the villa developments at Neuilly and so on, and then further out the various thoroughly suburban (but still flat out rich) municipalities as one keeps out wandering westwards. In most Italian cities, though, money lives in the centre and the geography often looks as if there's a gravitational pull at work - with a few little quirks here and there. Italy hardly lacks for middle class suburbs, of course, but they tend to have a firmly lower middle class quality, even if prosperous - which explains a great deal about political developments in the country in recent decades.

That's an interesting point, and actually something I myself didn't know was unique about Italian cities. And, well, I completely missed the mark on German and Scandinavian ones. My bad.

Just to quibble over details, I wouldn't characterize most of Paris as just "gentrifying" - the pockets of wealth are not just confined to the far-West of the city but also extend considerably into the center of the city (the "true", historical centre, ie the first 10 arrondissements), and have done so for a long time. The Center- and South-Eastern neighborhood are gentrifying, while the last (shrinking) working-class enclaves are in the Northeast. Here's a cool map I found:



Also, the suburbs that extend West into the Yvelines are not uniformly super-wealthy either. Vélizy, the city I used to live in, is firmly middle-class overall (our family is definitely wealthier than the median, and we're not exactly 1%ers; also, there's significant social housing). Further West, there is Trappes, which has a heavy immigrant and second-/third-generation presence and is frequently one of the kind of places lambasted by the xenophobic right as proof of everything that's wrong with Those People (it's also, incidentally, Benoît Hamon's political base, which believe it or not is still pretty supportive of him even now).

All minor quibbles, I'll concede, but I don't think "mixed but gentrifying Paris vs hyper-wealthy Western suburbs" is the appropriate characterization of the situation. Overall, if you're really hyper-wealthy, you're just as likely to live inside the city limits as West of them.

[mileslunn]

Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.

I saw a survey on attitudes towards immigration in Europe and it generally showed countries either with few immigrants (much of Eastern Europe) or only very recently (Greece and Italy) most negative, while countries that have had immigration for years like Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and UK much less so.  When Enoch Powell made his River of Blood speech in the late 60s, over 70% of Brits agreed with it, whereas today a speech like that would only have minority support so in a lot of ways Italy with respect to immigration is in a similar boat to what UK was in 60s and 70s.  You had some pretty bad race riots then too.  Generally speaking in most countries, new waves of those who look different tend to be negatively received unfortunately, but as time passes and they become part of the community attitudes shift.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why it can't be an ACCURATE belief that more people means more people you're in resource competition with, I will never know. It seems to me that that is the reason.

Okay, yes. There are countries and economic systems in which immigration has this effect, and while I really don't think it's the main thing that's currently going on in Italy, I wouldn't be completely shocked if I were proven wrong on that. I've conceded as much in the past, just not in conversation with you, since I try to avoid talking to you.

I stand by the other observation that you remark on, especially (but not only) since you're reducing to the absurd in responding to it.

Anyway, I'm not going to pursue this conversation further because I have better things to be doing with my time and other posters have better things to be doing with this thread.

I saw a survey on attitudes towards immigration in Europe and it generally showed countries either with few immigrants (much of Eastern Europe) or only very recently (Greece and Italy) most negative, while countries that have had immigration for years like Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and UK much less so.  When Enoch Powell made his River of Blood speech in the late 60s, over 70% of Brits agreed with it, whereas today a speech like that would only have minority support so in a lot of ways Italy with respect to immigration is in a similar boat to what UK was in 60s and 70s.  You had some pretty bad race riots then too.  Generally speaking in most countries, new waves of those who look different tend to be negatively received unfortunately, but as time passes and they become part of the community attitudes shift.

Alternative explanation: you can be honest about the problems of immigration when there's only a few of them in your country and it's possible to deport them.

When there's millions of them and they make up a large chunk of the population in all of your major cities AND have shown a propensity to react violently to perceived slights, you lose the ability to be honest.

"I didn't want the man with the gun to come into my house but now that he's sitting on my couch pointing it at me, I love him! (Also, he gets a vote so gun man's approval could never dip below 50% regardless!)"

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Those of us who are axiomatically incapable of conceding that it's possible for Mussulman and Hindoo immigrants ever to integrate in European countries aside, does anyone know how Italian citizens of African or Asian origin do vote? (I almost said "non-white Italian citizens" but Italian racial politics regarding North and South is...more complicated than that.) I assume mostly center-left these days, but did Berlusconi have any appeal to them back when LN and AN were mostly subordinate to liberal conservatism with Italian characteristics?

[Former President tack50]

Agreed. PD should not prop up the government. Go to elections, crush M5S and lead a hard opposition for 4 years (or less, it's Italy after all). After that hopefully Salvini loses.

[Oryxslayer]

One theoretical option for PD is add the dying M5S to their broad Left-wing tent once new elections happen, because the parties voters are certainly left-wing after the right bolted for Salvini. Tossing it onto a broad left list would further the decline in favor of PD as voters migrate naturally to the head of the coalition. Downside of course is that this left wing ticket picks up all of M5S's demons, as well as its voters, and even right now wouldn't beat the combined Right's total votes. This might be what Renzi is trying now that M5S would be in a junior position.

[Walmart_shopper]

Agreed. PD should not prop up the government. Go to elections, crush M5S and lead a hard opposition for 4 years (or less, it's Italy after all). After that hopefully Salvini loses.

It is hardly "propping up" the government if they are the government, in coalition with M5S. And the trajectory of Italian politics and Western European politics generally is such that a newer, lefter party could eclipse PD within four years anyway. Center left parties are too existentially threatened to play the long game. In any case, the institution-smashing and scapegoating tendency of the far right makes an ordinary democratic route back to power a lot harder. Give Salvini four years and you may be giving him the future.

[jaichind]

Wait.  Now Renzi is for working with M5S.  Was he not totally against working with M5S last year?

[Antonio the Sixth]

First concrete signs of a PD-M5S rapprochement materialized today, as the two parties joined forces in parliament to impose a slower pace to the agenda of the no-confidence vote. Lega wanted the vote as early as tomorrow, but the makeshift yellow-red majority decided it will be next week (August 20). In the meantime, Zingaretti is already moving away from his hard-no stance on an alliance with M5S, and voices are actually emerging in favor of a government to last the whole parliamentary term. I still have trouble seeing it, tbh, but the next week or so will be fascinating.

Those of us who are axiomatically incapable of conceding that it's possible for Mussulman and Hindoo immigrants ever to integrate in European countries aside, does anyone know how Italian citizens of African or Asian origin do vote? (I almost said "non-white Italian citizens" but Italian racial politics regarding North and South is...more complicated than that.) I assume mostly center-left these days, but did Berlusconi have any appeal to them back when LN and AN were mostly subordinate to liberal conservatism with Italian characteristics?

I'll admit I have no idea. I haven't seen any polling or survey data on the matter (and I have seen a LOT of strange crosstabs in Italian polls in my days). My guess is that the subsample of non-White voters in Italian politics is simply too small, owing to the compounding effect of, 1. them still being a small percentage of the population, 2. many of them not being citizens, especially given Italy's restrictive citizenship laws, 3. even those who are citizens having subpar turnout. If I did have to hazard a guess, though, yeah, I'd say the vast majority of them vote to the center-left. A few might possibly vote M5S too.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is it possible for M5S and PD to make a joint run in a new election? They would likely garner a majority together and given how many ancestral PD voters are now M5S voters, such a merger doesn't seem nearly as problematic as a fascist majority. Push immigration issues to the margins, emphasize economic populism, and anathemize Lega on the places they are weakest politically (their social conservatism, for example).  Why wouldn't that work?