Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Andrea]

Results of run offs held today

Potenza: Guarnte (CR) 44.7% Tramutoli (local lists) 27.4%

Guarnte 50.5% (with one polling station left to report)

Campobasso: D'Alessandro (CR) 39.7% Gravina (5 Stars) 29.4%

Gravina over 60% with 45 polling stations reported out of 56

Ascoli: Fioravanti (CR) 37.4% Celani (local lists) 21.4%

Fioravanti 59.31%

Cremona: Galimberti (CL) 46.4% Malvezzi (CR) 41.7%

Galimberti 55.94%

Avellino: Cipriano (CL) 32.4% Festa (ex PD) 28.7%

Festa (ex PD) 51.52%

Cesena: Lattuca (CL) 42,8% Rossi (CR) 33.8%

Lattuca 55.74%

Ferrara: Fabbri (CR) 48.4% Modesini (CL) 31.8%

Fabbri 56.77%

Foggia: Landella (CR) 46.1% Cavaliere (CL) 33.7%

Landella 53.28%

Forlì: Zattini (CR) 45.8% Calderoni (CL) 37.2%

Zattini 53.06%

Livorno: Salvetti (CL) 34.2% Romiti (CR) 26.6%

Salvetti 63.32%

Prato: Biffoni (CL) 47.2% Spada (CR) 35.1%

Biffoni 56.12%

Reggio Emilia: Vecchi (CL) 49.1% Salati (CR) 28.2%

Vecchi 63.31%

Rovigo: Gambarella (CR) 38.2% Gaffeo (Cl) 25.4%

Gaffeo 50.94%

Biella: Claudio Corradino (CR) 39.95% Dino Gentile (local lists) 27.57%

Corradino 51.11%

Vercelli: Corsaro (CR) 41.9% Forte (CL) 24.7%

Corsaro 54.8%

Verbania: Albertella (CR) 45.8% Marchionini (CL) 37.5%

Marchionini 50.62%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not a bad result for the center-left at all, honestly. Obviously losing Ferrara hurts, and there are a few other losses, but Ferrara was a given after the first round results, and everywhere else we held up decently. It's also nice to see Livorno coming back to the fold, if also expected. Almost in almost CS vs CD runoffs, the margin for the CS candidate has improved compared to the first round, showing either that CS voters are more consistent voters (since turnout dropped as a whole) or that M5S and other voters are closer to the left than to the right again (which, if confirmed, is terrible news for Luigi Di Maio). Either way, this relativizes the Salvini Wave of two week ago a little bit (although again, low turnout means that we can't make much of it).

Total municipalities won (not sure how much these labels are worth, but still the best we've got):
- Left and Center-Left: 111 (-42)
- Right and Center-Right: 85 (+40)
- M5S: 1 (-3)
- Independents: 24 (+6)

[TheSaint250]

Any more news about possibly going to early elections?

[SPQR]

Center-right wins municipal elections in Cagliari at the first-round by a whole...80 votes, with less than 50.1%.
Center-left is asking for a recount.

Sassari is going to the second-round with center-left vs civic center-right, Lega and co. came in third.

[Oryxslayer]

So Lega+Fdi+Forza have recently been polling above 50%...which would be a landslide in new electoral system. This isn't the first poll to show this as well. Considering how fractured the opposition appears, Salvini has to be lining up the cards for a snap election...right?

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1145771036077694976?s=19

[Former President tack50]

So Lega+Fdi+Forza have recently been polling above 50%...which would be a landslide in new electoral system. This isn't the first poll to show this as well. Considering how fractured the opposition appears, Salvini has to be lining up the cards for a snap election...right?

Probably. Hopefully he manages to blow it somehow like Theresa May, but Salvini is a lot smarter

[DavidB.]

So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?

[PSOL]

Italian Fascists round armed with Surface Air-to-Air Missiles, other assortments of weaponry

[DavidB.]

So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?

I'd still be interested in an answer to this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what's the thing with the Lega and Russia? Is it actually serious, and when do we know if it's going to have any consequences?

I'd still be interested in an answer to this.

It's hard to say how serious it is yet. On the surface it seems very similar to the stuff that brought Strache down (promising favorable policy in the energy sector in exchange for campaign funding), but the main difference is that the people implicated on both sides seem to be pretty small fries. The question, as always, is whether Salvini knew and if he himself instigated the whole encounter. There's circumstantial evidence for that but nothing definitive.

In terms of consequences, Lega is still at record highs in the polls, so if this is going to hurt it, it hasn't so far. At this point Lega's rise in the polls feels more like a fundamental law of physics than anything that is in any way meaningfully connected to the fluctuations of Italian politics.

[Diouf]

Sounds like a quite serious conflict this time

Premier Giuseppe Conte's government appeared to be moving towards a formal crisis on Thursday when Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini's League party openly talked of the possibility of a snap election.
Conte's League/5-Star Movement (M5S) coalition government is in turmoil after the ruling majority split dramatically on Wednesday in votes in parliament about the controversial TAV Turin-Lyon high-speed rail-link project. The Senate voted against a motion presented by the M5S seeking to stop the TAV with 181 votes against, including those of League lawmakers, and 110 in favour. Several motions in favour of the project presented by opposition parties were approved by similar margins. The TAV is just one of several issues that has caused tension between the M5S and League recently.
"Italy needs certainty and courageous choices," the League said in a statement. It's no good continuing with noes, postponements, blocks and rows every day. Every day that passes is a day that is lost. As far as we are concerned, the only alternative to this government is giving the word back to the Italian people with new elections".
The League seemed to suggest that the coalition was irreparably compromised. "There is awareness and recognition that, after many good things that were done, the League and the 5-Star Movement for too long have had visions that are different on the fundamental issues for the country, such as major public works, infrastructure, economic development, the fiscal shock, the application of regional autonomy, justice reform and relations with Europe," the League said. "Yesterday's vote on the TAV was just the last, clear, irreparable certification of this".

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2019/08/08/early-election-only-alternative-league_02cf7866-64ce-4391-af33-00f58b84971a.html

[Diouf]

Very serious it seems. Salvini now calls for new elections.

Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini says Italy’s government no longer has a majority and called for “swift” elections.

The League leader announced his intention to break up the fractious coalition with the Five Star Movement after two days of frenzied talks. Salvini said Parliament should acknowledge that the government headed by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte no longer has enough votes to survive.

“It’s pointless to go ahead with ‘no’s and quarrels like in the past few weeks, Italians need certainties and a government capable of acting,” Salvini said in a statement on Thursday night. “We don’t want more cabinet seats or ministries, we don’t a reshuffle or a technocratic government.”

For Salvini, the end of the majority was laid bare when the coalition couldn’t agree this week on a vote on a high-speed rail link to France and by the “continued insults against me and the League from our ‘allies’.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-08/salvini-says-italian-government-lacks-majority-election-needed

[Senator Incitatus]

...And away we go.

[Oryxslayer]

Right now, Legga is polling at about 38%, with their previous allies of Forza and FDI both combining for about 15%. If there is to be a new election, the majority right now will stand at close to 400 seats for the combined right, doubling what would be won by the other parties. I don't this this will stand and Lega&Co will probably drop, but it will be interesting if such a result emerges. Oh, if the 38% stands and nobody else can contest that majority, then Lega may be able to get enough seats on its own...

Salvini truly has inherited the Burlusconi machine. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, we are officially f**ked.

Salvini truly has inherited the Burlusconi machine. 

It's actually an interesting question whether the Lega's winning coalition will look similar to Forza Italia's in its heydays. It's definitely possible (we already know that a key pillar of Berlusconism, Northern small businessmen, have fully converted to Salvinism), but I suspect that other pieces of the Lega vote come from different traditions (a lot, depressingly, from the "red regions" that Berlusconi never managed to crack, and a lot also probably from the old AN vote).

[mileslunn]

As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed.  I realize Italy is a lot different than Canada, but still seems more like the type who might sell in some Eastern European countries, but would only appeal to your typical hard right crowd west of the former iron curtain, i.e. in the teens or 20s, not high 30s.  Likewise on policies, is his flat tax popular as won't that primarily benefit the rich and I know at least in English speaking world income inequality is a major issue?  Likewise he wants to loosen gun laws and I would think with all the mass shootings that would be a tough sell?  I can see his tough line on immigration being popular, but I would assume all major parties would to varying degrees take this.  Any insights here?

[Diouf]

Does anybody know whether Rosatellum has been tried at the Constitutional Court? I know M5S wanted it to go there when they voted against it, but I can't find any information about whether it has actually been tried at court. Hopefully, it could be struck down and Italy can get the open-list proportional system a great country like it deserves. The open-list part and the proportionality part is what the Constitutional Court focused on in striking down the other electoral laws, but unfortunately the replacements parliament agree on rarely seem to fulfill these criteria.

[Famous Mortimer]

As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed.  I realize Italy is a lot different than Canada, but still seems more like the type who might sell in some Eastern European countries, but would only appeal to your typical hard right crowd west of the former iron curtain, i.e. in the teens or 20s, not high 30s.  Likewise on policies, is his flat tax popular as won't that primarily benefit the rich and I know at least in English speaking world income inequality is a major issue?  Likewise he wants to loosen gun laws and I would think with all the mass shootings that would be a tough sell?  I can see his tough line on immigration being popular, but I would assume all major parties would to varying degrees take this.  Any insights here?

Political parties taking a hard line on immigration is pretty common. Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

Almost none of them stayed true to that line in office.

The League and Fidesz are basically the only parties in post war history who have kept their promise on immigration.

That goes a lot further than the Democratic Party or 5 Star or whoever going "immigration is unquestionable good but there's some problems and we need to address them in non specific ways".

[PetrSokol]

Is there now any possibility of the M5S-PD government?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega introduces no-confidence motion against Conte. It should be debated and voted on next week.

Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

You haven't the faintest clue what you're talking about and if you have the slightest shed of self-awareness you really ought to shut up now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As an outsider, why is Salvini so wildly popular, he seems like the type who where I live in Canada would be loathed. 

The present Premier of Ontario is Doug Ford.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As for the immigration issue: well, its actually quite unique toxicity in Italy can be put down to the fact that Italy for a very long time was a country in which emigration was a social phenomenon, but immigration basically wasn't.

[Skye]

Salvni looks unstoppable for now. I wonder if Lega's leads will continue to hold until the election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Lega introduces no-confidence motion against Conte. It should be debated and voted on next week.

Before the year 2000, basically every party in Europe except for a few Greens and hard leftists took a line that would today be called fascist.

You haven't the faintest clue what you're talking about and if you have the slightest shed of self-awareness you really ought to shut up now.

no u

[Former President tack50]

As for the immigration issue: well, its actually quite unique toxicity in Italy can be put down to the fact that Italy for a very long time was a country in which emigration was a social phenomenon, but immigration basically wasn't.

I mean, that also applies here (immigration was barely a thing until like 1995 or so) and the reaction to immigration is radically different than Italy's