MO-Global Strategy: McCaskill +6

[Calthrina950]

Hawley is obviously not the best candidate for the GOP. I'd still rate the race as toss-up.

Cruz+6: Likely R
McCaskill+6 : Tossup

#Atlas

Texas - Safe R state, only question is the margin. The votes to elect a Democrat simply aren't there, no matter what.

Missouri - While McCaskill has incredible headwinds, the recent state legislative specials show us the votes are potentially there, and Hawley's campaign has been terrible.

These are basically my views, though Texas is more nuanced. TX-GOV is Safe R, while TX-SEN is Likely R. I think Missouri is Lean D.

[Calthrina950]

Worth mentioning that this is a poll for the Chuck Schumer affiliated Super PAC Patriot Majority. Still a good result for McCaskill.

I've brought this up many times, but McCaskill is in a much better position in terms of polling compared to 2012 at this time. Of course, Hawley hasn't gone up on the air because of the lack of a competitive primary while in 2012 at this time the primary was raging on. But look at the polling from this time period in 2012:

This is interesting. It's a good reminder of how much Akin blew it for the Republicans back in 2012 with his "legitimate rape" comment. Hawley has not done or said anything that could be compared to that, but he is not taking this race seriously, and has not led in most of the polls of that I have seen to this point.