Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.
All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.
Yes, possibly, but do remember that Texas is (by and large, there are very notable exceptions) a relatively socially conservative state. This factor is quite divisive, and quite possibly will be enough to drive enough people to the polls to shut out a Beto win. If the Democrats were running someone in the mold of Conor Lamb, then I'd say Cruz would be truly vulnerable.
Though we're still months away, so anything can happen.
