TX-GQR Research: Cruz +6

[ON Progressive]

Cruz 49
O'Rourke 43

1000 LV from May 29 to June 5, conducted on behalf of End Citizens United.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Texas-Senate-Public-Memo-061418.pdf

[Bidenworth2020]

about what i expect the final margin to be, but the crosstabs are odd

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep, Cruz is Safe.

[ON Progressive]

Yep, Cruz is Safe.

I mean, you think Warren would lose by double digits to Trump, so nobody should take anything you say remotely seriously.

[Xing]

Yep, Cruz is Safe.

And yet Ohio is only Lean D while Brown is up by 17 in some polls? Hmmmm.

[Politician]

Yep, Cruz is Safe.

I mean, you think Warren would lose by double digits to Trump, so nobody should take anything you say remotely seriously.

Anyway, Likely R for now. I wouldn't rule out the probability of a VA-SEN 2014 happening here.

[cvparty]

ted over

[Skye]

Doesn't really change my view of the race.

It's still Likely R.

[ON Progressive]

Doesn't really change my view of the race.

It's still Likely R.

Yup. Just like the majority of polls, this is a Cruz lead of mid-to-high single digits. Likely R.

[KingSweden]

Doesn't really change my view of the race.

It's still Likely R.

Yup. Just like the majority of polls, this is a Cruz lead of mid-to-high single digits. Likely R.

[Pollster]

Strange that they oversampled by media market rather than race or age, but it could prove to be a somewhat smart move. For a public internal, this seems like a quality poll.

[Calthrina950]

Doesn't really change my view of the race.

It's still Likely R.

Yup. Just like the majority of polls, this is a Cruz lead of mid-to-high single digits. Likely R.

I agree with this. Texas is Likely Republican under my ratings.

[brand_allen]

about what i expect the final margin to be, but the crosstabs are odd

Where are you seeing these crosstabs? Because they're not in the link provided.

[wesmoorenerd]

Likely R, closer to Lean than Safe. O'Rourke really is running a great campaign so far and could potentially make up that margin, but it's an uphill battle.

[IceSpear]

Clearly Cruz is as likely to win as Stabenow and Menendez.

[Former President tack50]

#Cruzunder50

Is it a good time to use the meme or not?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Yep, Cruz is Safe.

I mean, you think Warren would lose by double digits to Trump, so nobody should take anything you say remotely seriously.

[Calthrina950]

Clearly Cruz is as likely to win as Stabenow and Menendez.

But the difference is that those two will almost certainly win by double digits, while Cruz will be held to a single-digit margin, probably 6-9 pts. as this poll indicates.

[Skye]

Clearly Cruz is as likely to win as Stabenow and Menendez.

So very likely, then?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

about what i expect the final margin to be, but the crosstabs are odd

Crosstabs are everywhere and always odd. No poll you will ever see has crosstabs that make sense, and if it does have crosstabs that make sense across the board, that is your best guide that it is probably a fake pollster.

Obviously still likely R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

[Calthrina950]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

[Person Man]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

People think he's a dick.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

[MT Treasurer]

Clearly Cruz is as likely to win as Stabenow and Menendez.

The fact that there are still people who believe that Menendez is even remotely vulnerable is sad.