TX-GQR Research: Cruz +6

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

Also O'Rourke and Abbott are relatively local guys who are mostly all about Texas, while Cruz is part of the DC Swamp, and Valdez has held several dalliances with the federal party and was doing some things that really had little to do with her much needed role of saving our dilapidated law enforcement departments and weak morale and jail infrastructure (like working on federal immigration task forces with Obama) while only partially improving conditions here locally. I think she was a decent to good sheriff, but she had the potential to do more and be much better, but a lot of those times she was just hanging out with the national party. Just a general breakdown that you could classify O'Rourke and Abbott as the Texan guys, while Cruz and Valdez kind of cared about Texas, but really had higher less local ambitions all along, and substantially more swampier.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz should win, but he will underperform all other statewide Republicans substantially.

This. He seems to be lagging behind Abbott by at least 13 points. That is a very considerable gap. I truly do wonder: why is Ted Cruz so weak this year, compared to others?

He is much weaker than Abbott, and Beto is much stronger than Valdez. Also, Texas is usually bluer (comparatively) on the federal than state level. Plus he gaffes up so often, while Beto is comparatively fleek, and Valdez has tons of scandals, but Abbott is relatively fleek.

I see. That makes sense. Abbott seems like a reasonable Governor to me, but Cruz is an unlikable charlatan and a ideological extremist. If I were a Texas voter, I would be splitting my ticket.

Also O'Rourke and Abbott are relatively local guys who are mostly all about Texas, while Cruz is part of the DC Swamp, and Valdez has held several dalliances with the federal party and was doing some things that really had little to do with her much needed role of saving our dilapidated law enforcement departments and weak morale and jail infrastructure (like working on federal immigration task forces with Obama) while only partially improving conditions here locally. I think she was a decent to good sheriff, but she had the potential to do more and be much better, but a lot of those times she was just hanging out with the national party. Just a general breakdown that you could classify O'Rourke and Abbott as the Texan guys, while Cruz and Valdez kind of cared about Texas, but really had higher less local ambitions all along, and substantially more swampier.

I see. Thank you for this analysis. Now it makes sense to me as to why these races are shaping up as they are. Even though Cruz will win in the end, I do hope that this year will begin laying the foundations for a political change in Texas in the near future, at least on the federal level.

Np, yeah things are changing in Texas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.

All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.

Yes, possibly, but do remember that Texas is (by and large, there are very notable exceptions) a relatively socially conservative state. This factor is quite divisive, and quite possibly will be enough to drive enough people to the polls to shut out a Beto win. If the Democrats were running someone in the mold of Conor Lamb, then I'd say Cruz would be truly vulnerable.

Though we're still months away, so anything can happen.

We should have gotten Cuellar.