Why can't Cruz be very vulnerable? He spent most of his first term ginning up a failed run for President. He shut down the government once over Obamacare, yet it is still the law of the land even though his party controls Congress and the White House. So there's a strike against him with the base. Oh, wait there's more; people like Obamacare now. A lot. So there's a strike against him with independents. Not only that, he's an unlikeable toad with weak approval ratings in his own state. There's also a child detention camp crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. There's a border trade with Mexico crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to a President that is unpopular in Texas. And an agriculture-focused China tariff crisis brewing in Texas, thanks to.. you get the idea.
All of this stuff doesn't add up to a comfortable Cruz win. Nobody should be shocked if Beto pulls this off or the spread comes down to a few percentage points.
It's Texas.
What I mean is that Cruz isn't really vulnerable right now, because Texas is still hostile territory to Democrats. Even with all the stuff he listed, Cruz has gotten decent leads so yeah, that's why I think he'll end up winning.
Could he become vulnerable? I do think there is a possibility, and I've been saying for quite some time that O'Rourke could get a good % of the vote, at least better than any Democrat in recent memory. But if things keep going like they are right now, he'll probably still lose.
