New Cook Gov Rankings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ignore these rankings, Sabato and 270 are accurate

[Kodak]

IL, MN, and ME should not be tossups.

GA should not be solid.

ME being a tossup is perfectly reasonable thanks to the fact ME likes to have a ton of left leaning independents on the ballot to let Republicans win on pluralities (see: 2010 and 2014), but I agree with you otherwise.

Doesn't RCV make independents kinda irrelevant though?   I can't imagine many people voting for Terry Hayes and then "not" voting for the Dem as second choice.

Maine's state constitution does not allow RCV, so it can only be used for federal offices this November.

[Jeppe]

Guys, Rauner has a better chance of winning the governorship of IL than snowflake Evers does of winning titanium R Wisconsin. Get real and grab your sledge hammer and go shake up Springfield like Miley Cyrus’ wrecking ball

In all honestly this could be true since Evers probably loses the primary to some resistance mommy lol.

Kelda Roys, ftw. He gonna get AJ Balukoff-d.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

How the hell are GA and OK Solid R while IA is a toss-up? GA and OK are probably more competitive than IA, to be honest.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia and Wisconsin are the real headscratchers

Apparently they're waiting until the GOP primary runoff ends to change their rating, which is ridiculous to me. The winner of the primary wouldn't change the race enough that they'd need to wait 40 days to get it out of Solid R.

That's hilarious, Cagle and Kemp are both awful candidates in their own unique ways. Cagle has just about as many scandals brewing as Silvio Berlusconi and Kemp is about as palatable to Atlanta as Cam Newton.

Nevertheless - both are likely to win an election against Stacey Abrams. I can't fathom Georgia electing Black Democratic woman right now. In 10 years - yes. But - not now.

LOL. You have reduced her campaign to nothing more than her demographic make-up. She is running a tight, focused campaign with a huge field operation. Whatever happens the election will be much closer than Jason Carter's margin and will help accelerate the Democratic trend here.

Hopefully the GAGOP writes off her impressive political instincts as much as you have.

[Calthrina950]

Georgia and Wisconsin are the real headscratchers

Apparently they're waiting until the GOP primary runoff ends to change their rating, which is ridiculous to me. The winner of the primary wouldn't change the race enough that they'd need to wait 40 days to get it out of Solid R.

That's hilarious, Cagle and Kemp are both awful candidates in their own unique ways. Cagle has just about as many scandals brewing as Silvio Berlusconi and Kemp is about as palatable to Atlanta as Cam Newton.

Nevertheless - both are likely to win an election against Stacey Abrams. I can't fathom Georgia electing Black Democratic woman right now. In 10 years - yes. But - not now.

LOL. You have reduced her campaign to nothing more than her demographic make-up. She is running a tight, focused campaign with a huge field operation. Whatever happens the election will be much closer than Jason Carter's margin and will help accelerate the Democratic trend here.

Hopefully the GAGOP writes off her impressive political instincts as much as you have.

I don't think that is what he intended. Given the political environment and Georgia's Democratic trend, I think Abrams will definitely come within a few points this year, and her victory will help lay the groundwork, for the Democratic Party there, in elections over the next decade. At the same time, however, the Democratic base is not yet broad enough, in my view, for a victory at this time. In a few more years, demographics will be more favorable for the Party then they are now. That's why I think Abrams will ultimately lose, but it will be a warning to the Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fred Hubbell or Rashurn Baker have a better chance of winning than Stacy Abrams who isn't that wide known yet.

[tmthforu94]

Fred Hubbell or Rashurn Baker have a better chance of winning than Stacy Abrams who isn't that wide known yet.

Really? Hubbell and Baker are both major underdogs, Abrams is close in the polls and has ran an excellent campaign in a state that is trending towards the Democrats. She is highly undervalued as a candidate, I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up winning, especially if Kemp is the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MD is having a primary and Democrats are gonna have major Union endorsements behind Jealous or Baker.

Abrams is in a major GOP state and she would have to go to a run-off system and it favors GOP.

[wesmoorenerd]

Old news, but Cook moved SC from Solid to Likely, despite still having GA and OK as Solid. GA especially is crazy because that race is Lean R at most. They say they're waiting until the runoff to move it but both candidates suck so I don't see why.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI, WI and IL will easily fall to Dems. But, hopes of capturing House lies with OH, Iowa and FL. GA is a runoff which favors the GOP and MD and NV are part of 279 Friewal

[Rookie Yinzer]

Old news, but Cook moved SC from Solid to Likely, despite still having GA and OK as Solid. GA especially is crazy because that race is Lean R at most. They say they're waiting until the runoff to move it but both candidates suck so I don't see why.

Cagle’s Electoral strength is being over exaggerated by outside people. The fact that 61% of GOP voters voted against Governor Deal’s natural successor should speak volumes. He’s reviled by some of the staunch conservative voters (he has had like three or four “swampy” scandals in the past month alone) and he has been going overboard trying to cling to Trump which could drive away some Metro ATL whites. I’m coming around to the thinking that he will be more vulnerable than Kemp but I’m ready to take on whoever it is.

[Meatball Ron]

NH as Likely R feels wrong. Sununu is popular, but nowhere near Baker, Scott, or even Hogan. Plus, Dems now have a legitimate/probably strong candidate in Molly Kelly, and NH is especially prone to strong wave elections (though 2014 is a counter-point to that). Lean R feels appropriate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu is a moderate, the Dems have a best chance in 2020 with Shaheen on the ballot to defeat Sununu.

[Meatball Ron]

Sununu is a moderate

Putting aside that this isn't really relevant to what I said, it's also not really true. Sununu and his staff tend to behave in a hyper-partisan manner, and there's been a handful of embarrassing incidents where Sununu has been overly deferential to Trump in a state that disapproves of him.

[wesmoorenerd]

BUT BUT BUT MUH 50+1 AND MUH RACIST SOUTHERNERS AND CAGLE'S MODERATE APPEAL AND OSSOFF LOSING GA-06 AND INFLEXIBLE VOTERS

[QAnonKelly]

Lol @GA being "solid" and AZ being "likely". I'd go so far as to call GA an Abrams leaning tossup (I guess they'll move it once the runoff is done) and AZ lean R at most

[MT Treasurer]

Cook also thinks Tina Smith and Sherrod Brown are more likely to lose than Jon Tester, so yeah...

[wesmoorenerd]

Cook also thinks Tina Smith and Sherrod Brown are more likely to lose than Jon Tester, so yeah...

Of course an untested Senator like Tina Smith running in the deep R state of Minnesota is more likely to lose than Titanium Tester (who's up against weak sauce Rosendale), duh.

Cook's Senate ratings aren't that awful though. Montana should be Lean D, Minnesota/Ohio should be Likely D, and you could make an argument for moving Nevada/Arizona/WV to Lean D as well, but everything else is alright.

[Virginiá]

Of course an untested Senator like Tina Smith running in the deep R state of Minnesota is more likely to lose than Titanium Tester (who's up against weak sauce Rosendale), duh.

Cook's Senate ratings aren't that awful though. Montana should be Lean D, Minnesota/Ohio should be Likely D, and you could make an argument for moving Nevada/Arizona/WV to Lean D as well, but everything else is alright.

It's hard for me to have confidence in Nevada given what a poor run Democrats have had in regards to the Governor's office. And this has happened parallel to Democrats controlling the state House for the vast majority of the time since the Great Depression.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I agree with the changes they made, but: GA is lean R, OK likely R, MN lean D and IL likely D (closer to safe). And WI is a toss-up as well. Sure, there is just one poll so far, but if a virtually unknown dude leads Walker 59-45% it's not lean R in this political climate.

But muh 3 elections in 4 years!

But muh WI GOP machine!

But muh 104% of WI voters!?

[Zaybay]

Pundits are really unnecessary. They are only good when used in hindsight, so we can say, "this person won because of A. B. C....". They are always late to the punch and always are able to get away with it by saying "muh unexpected wave" "muh was only rated lean" "muh surprises happen". I still remember when Mcconnell was rated a tossup in 2014. Sure, he was unpopular, but 2014 was shaping up to be an R wave year, and its KENTUCKY. Unlike us Atlas'ers, Pundits dont take into account candidate quality or the fundamentals of the year, or state leanings, just past elections. Georgia at solid R? NH at likely R? Illinois tossup? I will even point at MA and VT and say they should not be solid. Cook even moved PA-01 to lean R because of 1 poll done before the campaign even started which showed him behind a popular incumbent by 7, and only behind by 1 in likely polling. We make fun of Atlas for being bad at politics and being hottakey, but Pundits are the worst.

Sorry for the long post, just got back from a trip and had no place to post about politics.

[Mycool]

I agree with the changes they made, but: GA is lean R, OK likely R, MN lean D and IL likely D (closer to safe). And WI is a toss-up as well. Sure, there is just one poll so far, but if a virtually unknown dude leads Walker 59-45% it's not lean R in this political climate.

But muh 3 elections in 4 years!

But muh WI GOP machine!

But muh 104% of WI voters!?

THAT’S why everyone keeps talking about why Hillary didn’t visit Wisconsin, their votes equal 104%, instead of 100%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton made the mistake of appealing to FL/AZ voters amd appealing to MI/WI/PA as she went dark that Aug, and ignored them. But, Toomey and Johnson made some votes for gun background checks that helped them in the GE

[Maxwell]

Pundits are really unnecessary. They are only good when used in hindsight, so we can say, "this person won because of A. B. C....". They are always late to the punch and always are able to get away with it by saying "muh unexpected wave" "muh was only rated lean" "muh surprises happen". I still remember when Mcconnell was rated a tossup in 2014. Sure, he was unpopular, but 2014 was shaping up to be an R wave year, and its KENTUCKY. Unlike us Atlas'ers, Pundits dont take into account candidate quality or the fundamentals of the year, or state leanings, just past elections. Georgia at solid R? NH at likely R? Illinois tossup? I will even point at MA and VT and say they should not be solid. Cook even moved PA-01 to lean R because of 1 poll done before the campaign even started which showed him behind a popular incumbent by 7, and only behind by 1 in likely polling. We make fun of Atlas for being bad at politics and being hottakey, but Pundits are the worst.

Sorry for the long post, just got back from a trip and had no place to post about politics.

i love when literally EVERYBODY on the Morning Joe crew thought Ed Gillespie was going to win the Virginia Governorship. And so did quite a few Atlas posters.