Politico: ‘Who is Bill Nelson?’

[Virginiá]

‘Who is Bill Nelson?’

Veteran Florida senator’s disconnect with Latino voters in critical race alarms Democrats.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/14/nelson-florida-senate-latinos-rick-scott-645594

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I wonder how Nelson was as a campaigner like 20 years ago. This kind of behavior reminds me of one of those newly-endangered Republican House incumbents who has never had a competitive race in their life - Culberson, for example. Nelson is going to need to up the energy levels on his campaign if he wants to carry the day in November.

Nonetheless, it may easily be the case that if Nelson pulls through, it wasn't on his own strengths. He's been languishing in office too long.

[Bidenworth2020]

nelson knows how to win. scott is a formidable opponent, bit iirc connie mack was supposed to be the god recruit. tilt r, as of this moment, but I fully expect that to change. nelson is just letting scott drain some of his money

[KingSweden]

Even if Nelson doesn’t learn Spanish, he should at least have it on his damn website

[Virginiá]

Even if Nelson doesn’t learn Spanish, he should at least have it on his damn website

I just can't help but read these little things as symbolic of his campaign in general. How is a 3 term incumbent Senator from Florida this inept regarding Latino voter outreach? We're talking about real basic things here too.

Seriously, Florida Democrats suck. I hate this godforsaken state.

[YE]

Makes me wonder how on earth did Nelson get elected in 2006 and 2012 then.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Makes me wonder how on earth did Nelson get elected in 2006 and 2012 then.

White people.

Nelson won a ton of rural counties in 2006, and didn't get demolished in them six years later in 2012. Nelson also outperformed Obama big league in 2012 pretty much everywhere, especially in what seem to be whiter areas (based on their voting patterns in presidential elections).

Also, all of Nelson's past opponents have been congresscritters from solid GOP districts. Rick Scott, meanwhile, has name recognition across the entire state, and is the incumbent governor. That is a undeniable reason to consider him a solid challenger; regardless of the margins he has won by, Scott seems to be relatively popular, and won in the state at-large.

[ON Progressive]

Nelson did just release his first Spanish ad.

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/06/14/nelson-up-with-first-spanish-language-ad/

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm still optimistic about this race. I really think Nelson is an underrated candidate who will be running a powerful campaign, and I imagine that his campaign kicking into high gear later might not really impact things. I certainly hope I'm not proven wrong.

[Maxwell]

Nelson is slowly making his way up to the most vulnerable Democrat which is a bizarre turn of events considering Rick Scott's flaws and the much much more Republican states that have Democratic Senators this year (some of whom, like Sherrod Brown, are close to Safe).

[Adam Griffin]

Even if Nelson doesn’t learn Spanish, he should at least have it on his damn website

I just can't help but read these little things as symbolic of his campaign in general. How is a 3 term incumbent Senator from Florida this inept regarding Latino voter outreach? We're talking about real basic things here too.

Seriously, Florida Democrats suck. I hate this godforsaken state.

Hell, how is his staff and campaign that inept? It's one thing for a 75 year-old white man to not speak Spanish. It's even understandable that Nelson's not naturally comfortable in Spanish-speaking situations or well-versed on issues of Latino advocacy when it has never been integral to his victories (until very recently, in Florida, Latino = Cuban = GOP).

His campaign staff, however, doesn't have such excuses. In 2012, Florida was the one and only state where Latino turnout/support actually made the difference between an Obama win and a Romney win.

[ajc0918]

Scott has spent $17M on ads so far and this race is still a toss up. Lol.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Nelson wins despite his poor outreach to the Hispanic community because Latinos are only 16-18% of the elecotorate in Florida, compared to the white electorate being 60%.

I have no idea why Atlas overhypes Hispanics so much. Trump won in FL despite doing completely garbage with hispanics. White voters are 60% of the electorate, so it makes more sense for Nelson to campaign to old white voters rather than Latino voters. I actually think Nelson should be primarily focusing on old white voters who care about health care.

It also makes sense that Rick Scott is campaigning to hispanics... that's what persuasion is. Politicians target groups that their party usually does poorly with (Scott & Repubs w/ Latinos, Nelson & Dems with old white voters).


You would think after Hillary's loss that Atlas would realize how irrelevant hispanics are in the American electorate. You need to swing like 4 Hispanics to make up for 1 White voter.... in FL. It's about 8 Hispanics to 1 White voter in the US at large.


That said... as a senator from FL... Nelson's hispanic outreach is embarrassing. He owes it to his spanish constituents to work harder.


Edit: LMAO at this part

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Rode Obama's coattails? Nelson outperformed Obama by a lot.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Nelson had to reintroduce himself to voters in 2012 too and voters seemed to like what they saw when he did. Also, the importance of Hispanics in elections is way overblown when they largely don’t even vote. Sorry, that’s the reality.

I am pretty sure Hispanics aren't even 35% of the electorate in New Mexico (a 48% hispanic state).

They're only 25% of the electorate in California, which is a state that is 39% hispanic.

Hell... they might not even be 30% of the electorate in NM.

[kyc0705]

I think Nelson will win, but despite his campaign, not because of it. It's obviously still early, but this is looking to be an example of the national environment favoring a party, and thus helping a few tossup races over the finish line.

[ON Progressive]

I have no idea why Atlas overhypes Hispanics so much. Trump won in FL despite doing completely garbage with hispanics. White voters are 60% of the electorate, so it makes more sense for Nelson to campaign to old white voters rather than Latino voters. I actually think Nelson should be primarily focusing on old white voters who care about health care.

The obsession comes from when people were going on about how Obama won the 2012 election thanks to Hispanics based on exit polling data.

The problem is that exit polls dramatically overestimate non-white turnout. Obama would have won in 2012 if Latinos voted like they did in 2004 and nothing else changed.

The Upshot did a great article on this in June 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

[mencken]

Nelson wins despite his poor outreach to the Hispanic community because Latinos are only 16-18% of the elecotorate in Florida, compared to the white electorate being 60%.

I have no idea why Atlas overhypes Hispanics so much. Trump won in FL despite doing completely garbage with hispanics. White voters are 60% of the electorate, so it makes more sense for Nelson to campaign to old white voters rather than Latino voters. I actually think Nelson should be primarily focusing on old white voters who care about health care.

White votes matter? Mods, ban this poster for hate speech, there are an alt-right white nationalist.

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Persuasion ought to be aimed at people who are on the fence, not people who are against you from the outset, especially if that group is, as you say, less than 16% of the electorate.

[MT Treasurer]

Nelson hails from a different era in which the Hispanic vote wasn’t nearly as pivotal as it is now. In some ways, he’s a remnant of the past who’s been in office very long and has had trouble catching up with the changing political realities of his state. That this type of Senator could struggle to fend off an aggressive challenger in his reelection bid isn’t really surprising when you consider how badly Roy Blunt underperformed Trump in 2016.

That said, I think the national environment saves Nelson and he wins by 2-3 (maybe even 5) on election day. He’s not the strongest incumbent, but he’s not incompetent enough to lose in a closely divided swing state in a massive Democratic wave year. If Republicans outperform expectations and it’s a more neutral year (unlikely), I think Scott ekes out a win, though.

[Skye]

Nelson hails from a different era in which the Hispanic vote wasn’t nearly as pivotal as it is now. In some ways, he’s a remnant of the past who’s been in office very long and has had trouble catching up with the changing political realities of his state. That this type of Senator could struggle to fend off an aggressive challenger in his reelection bid isn’t really surprising when you consider how badly Roy Blunt underperformed Trump in 2016.

That said, I think the national environment saves Nelson and he wins by 2-3 (maybe even 5) on election day. He’s not the strongest incumbent, but he’s not incompetent enough to lose in a closely divided swing state in a massive Democratic wave year. If Republicans outperform expectations and it’s a more neutral year (unlikely), I think Scott ekes out a win, though.

Gotta say I agree completely with this. Scott is also a top-tier challenger.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bill Nelson votes to start wars for no good reason that cost trillions of dollars while voting to permanently repeal the estate tax. He's garbage that really should have been primaried.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Nelson hails from a different era in which the Hispanic vote wasn’t nearly as pivotal as it is now. In some ways, he’s a remnant of the past who’s been in office very long and has had trouble catching up with the changing political realities of his state. That this type of Senator could struggle to fend off an aggressive challenger in his reelection bid isn’t really surprising when you consider how badly Roy Blunt underperformed Trump in 2016.

That said, I think the national environment saves Nelson and he wins by 2-3 (maybe even 5) on election day. He’s not the strongest incumbent, but he’s not incompetent enough to lose in a closely divided swing state in a massive Democratic wave year. If Republicans outperform expectations and it’s a more neutral year (unlikely), I think Scott ekes out a win, though.

Gotta say I agree completely with this. Scott is also a top-tier challenger.

[wjx987]

I REALLY don't want to be represented by Rubio AND Scott. I hope Nelson gets serious soon.

[Young Conservative]

Nelson has always relied on North Florida to win elections. He probably expects Dixiecrats to turn out for him again, but that’s just not going to happen anymore.

[Bidenworth2020]

Nelson has always relied on North Florida to win elections. He probably expects Dixiecrats to turn out for him again, but that’s just not going to happen anymore.

what? he happens to do well there (much better than obama or clinton), but the last time that would have been a deciding factor in his race was 2000, when that area was much more dem anyway

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I hope Nelson knows what he is doing... because well, it's starting to get concerning ok. I already have an idea, if Scott keeps leading by mid August, we should cut him loose and just dump all the national dem money reserved for Florida on Indiana. The main statewide poll out should Braun barely ahead 47-46. This was done just a few days after the highly competitive GOP primary, and a solid Braun victory. I think that it was just primary enthusiasm, and Donnelly is probably back to leading by two or three points right now. Jim Bank's internal is one vague peice for this. That said, this could get down to the wire, and if Floridian tomfoolery continues into mid-August, I say we should just wish Nelson luck, and inundate Indiana with cash and get Donnelly over the hurdle.

[Sir Mohamed]

It may be unpopular to say this as a liberal Democrat, but I think it's not too much asked for to speak English for someone to live in the United States, let alone being a voter. There should be one language in this country that anyone understands. If other languages are used as an addition, that's a good idea.