Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

The pollster Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's favorable and unfavorable numbers in every state starting in January 2017 and all the way till May 2018, a total of 17 months thus far. I have added together all the raw numbers for each state, and then ranked each state correspondingly. After 17 months, this is the 2020 map that is starting to emerge:

Results for this specific map:

Dem: 266
Rep: 235
Toss up: 37



This is the current full ranking state by state after Trump's first 17 months in office (from lowest to highest approval):

1. Hawaii: -463
2. Massachusetts: -428
3. Vermont: -422

4. Maryland: -369
5. California: -321
6. Rhode Island: -306

7. Washington: -288
8. Connecticut: -269
9. Oregon: -251
10. Illinois: -243
11. New York: -221
11. New Jersey: -221
13. Minnesota: -208

14. New Hampshire: -176
15. Colorado: -166
16. Delaware: -161
17. Wisconsin: -154
18. Michigan: -141
19. Maine: -112

20. New Mexico: -94
20. Iowa: -94
22. Pennsylvania: -41
23. Virginia: -27
24. Nevada: -14
25. Ohio: -9

26. Arizona: +43
27. North Carolina: +58
28. Georgia: +92
29. Florida: +96
30. Utah: +99

31. Missouri: +113
31. Indiana: +113
33. Nebraska: +147
34. Texas: +154
35. Kansas: +156
36. Montana: +161
37. North Dakota: +162

38. South Carolina: +205
39. South Dakota: +231
40. Alaska: +244
41. Arkansas: +263
42. Idaho: +276
43. Kentucky: +283
44. Tennessee: +287

45. Oklahoma: +320
46. Mississippi: +322
47. Louisiana: +360

48. West Virginia: +406
49. Alabama: +440

50. Wyoming: +544


Does the map above seem like a fair map come the fall of 2020?

[Gass3268]

Lol Virginia

[Consciously Unconscious]

What's with Iowa?

[eric82oslo]

What's with Iowa?

Iowa started out quite positive towards Trump, but it soon started to change around May last year. I guess with the current trade war with Canada, Mexico and other close allies, Iowans aren't necessarily going to warm towards Trump anytime very soon.

21. Iowa: +9 +4 +4 +2 -6 -8 -9 -10 -11 -10 -10 -12 -10 -2 -11 -7 -7 (-94)

The entire upper midwest has quickly soured on Trump though, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois, even North Dakota and to some degree Indiana. This change has happened more abruptly than in most other regions.

[Xing]

While this is interesting, it's not really predicative of 2020. There are states where Obama's favorability was far from great (like Nevada ) where he won pretty decisively anyway.

[elcorazon]

Junk poll, there is no way Trump is less popular in swingy, competitive NH than in deep blue ME, CO and MI.

Is that a joke?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

279 Booker or Harris or Gillibrand
259 Trump

[eric82oslo]

Top 5 states which have soured the most on Trump between January 2017 till May 2018:

1. Illinois: -31 pp (percentage points)
2. New Mexico: -31
3. New York: -29
4. Rhode Island: -28
5. Utah: -26

Top 10 (or bottom 10 perhaps) are rounded out with Vermont, Washington, Delaware, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Montana (last two shared).


Top 5 states which have kept the most loyal to Trump throughout this period:

1. Alabama: -6
2. Louisiana: -6
3. South Dakota: -7
4. Maryland: -8
5. West Virginia: -10

Rounding out this top 10 list: Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Hawaii, Wyoming, Nevada (last two shared).

Hawaii however started out extremely sour on Trump already in January 2017, perhaps not so surprising having in collective memory Trump roaming the island in search of Obama's "non-existing" birth certificate.

[pbrower2a]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

The pollster Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's favorable and unfavorable numbers in every state starting in January 2017 and all the way till May 2018, a total of 17 months thus far. I have added together all the raw numbers for each state, and then ranked each state correspondingly. After 17 months, this is the 2020 map that is starting to emerge:

Results for this specific map:

Dem: 266
Rep: 235
Toss up: 37



This is the current full ranking state by state after Trump's first 17 months in office (from lowest to highest approval):

1. Hawaii: -463
2. Massachusetts: -428
3. Vermont: -422

4. Maryland: -369
5. California: -321
6. Rhode Island: -306

7. Washington: -288
8. Connecticut: -269
9. Oregon: -251
10. Illinois: -243
11. New York: -221
11. New Jersey: -221
13. Minnesota: -208

14. New Hampshire: -176
15. Colorado: -166
16. Delaware: -161
17. Wisconsin: -154
18. Michigan: -141
19. Maine: -112

20. New Mexico: -94
20. Iowa: -94
22. Pennsylvania: -41
23. Virginia: -27
24. Nevada: -14
25. Ohio: -9

26. Arizona: +43
27. North Carolina: +58
28. Georgia: +92
29. Florida: +96
30. Utah: +99

31. Missouri: +113
31. Indiana: +113
33. Nebraska: +147
34. Texas: +154
35. Kansas: +156
36. Montana: +161
37. North Dakota: +162

38. South Carolina: +205
39. South Dakota: +231
40. Alaska: +244
41. Arkansas: +263
42. Idaho: +276
43. Kentucky: +283
44. Tennessee: +287

45. Oklahoma: +320
46. Mississippi: +322
47. Louisiana: +360

48. West Virginia: +406
49. Alabama: +440

50. Wyoming: +544


Does the map above seem like a fair map come the fall of 2020?

No. Later maps should matter more due to the effects of policies and personalities. The 2016 election should have disabused us all of any idea that early polling matters much more than it does after later polls come in. Going even farther back, polls from early 1977 suggested that Jimmy Carter was a shoo-in for re-election.

If current polls show that the President is behind 43-54 in approval in Ohio, that he was up 48-46 early in 2017 becomes irrelevant.

What's with Iowa?

Iowa reflects in part that rural voters are turning against Trump. Donald Trump has done nothing for agriculture except to drive agricultural pay down. He has offered tariffs that will hurt farmers by cutting their commodity prices and raising fuel costs. Agriculture simply devours energy.

Iowa can vote for a city-slicker, but Donald Trump has shown himself the worst sort of city-slicker, the sort who sees rural people as people to fleece and humiliate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If that is the base map the Democrat is also winning Virginia and Nevada. I can't see them swinging away from the Democrats (especially Virginia) while Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin swing towards them.

[Sadader]

What's with Iowa?

Iowa started out quite positive towards Trump, but it soon started to change around May last year. I guess with the current trade war with Canada, Mexico and other close allies, Iowans aren't necessarily going to warm towards Trump anytime very soon.

21. Iowa: +9 +4 +4 +2 -6 -8 -9 -10 -11 -10 -10 -12 -10 -2 -11 -7 -7 (-94)

The entire upper midwest has quickly soured on Trump though, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois, even North Dakota and to some degree Indiana. This change has happened more abruptly than in most other regions.

A similar turnaround to what Obama saw in his second term.

[Yellowhammer]

I highly doubt that VA is a tossup while IA is dem-leaning...

[Crumpets]

Two Clinton states are tossups while four Trump states are lean-D? This looks more like a summer of 2012 election map.

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

The pollster Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's favorable and unfavorable numbers in every state starting in January 2017 and all the way till May 2018, a total of 17 months thus far. I have added together all the raw numbers for each state, and then ranked each state correspondingly. After 17 months, this is the 2020 map that is starting to emerge:

Results for this specific map:

Dem: 266
Rep: 235
Toss up: 37

Another month has passed by and Morning Consult has updated their numbers adding one more month, the 18th so far, for June 2018.

Here are the new revised aggregated numbers for every state:

1. Hawaii: -486
2. Massachusetts: -453
3. Vermont: -443

4. Maryland: -391

5. California: -343
6. Rhode Island: -324
7. Washington: -310
8. Connecticut: -282
9. Oregon: -269
10. Illinois: -263
11. New York: -242
11. New Jersey: -234
13. Minnesota: -223

14. New Hampshire: -187
15. Colorado: -179
16. Delaware: -173
17. Wisconsin: -167
18. Michigan: -149

19. Maine: -113
20. New Mexico: -106
20. Iowa: -98

22. Pennsylvania: -46
23. Virginia: -31
24. Nevada: -22
25. Ohio: -12

26. Arizona: +43
27. North Carolina: +61

28. Georgia: +97
29. Utah: +99
30. Florida: +101
31. Missouri: +118
32. Indiana: +120

33. Nebraska: +152
34. Kansas: +162
35. Texas: +164
36. North Dakota: +167
37. Montana: +169

38. South Carolina: +218
39. South Dakota: +245
40. Alaska: +254
41. Arkansas: +278
42. Idaho: +290
43. Kentucky: +297
44. Tennessee: +302
45. Oklahoma: +336
46. Mississippi: +347
47. Louisiana: +383

48. West Virginia: +430

49. Alabama: +470

50. Wyoming: +568


The remarkable new shifts from June is that Utah is now less supportive of Trump than the "previous" swing state of Florida, plus Texas just barely surpassing Kansas in its pro Trump attitudes, as well as Montana becoming slightly more pro Trump than North Dakota.


And this is the new map:

Dem: 246
Rep: 224
Toss up: 68


In other words, still too close to call for a generic Democrat to claim victory over Trump this far ahead of the 2020 election, although for every month which passes things are starting to look bleaker for the incumbent.

At this point as of June 2018, Virginia is the tipping point state, while Ohio is the closest state. New as of this month (June) is that Arizona now appears closer even than Pennsylvania, which in the long run could turn out to be a significant development. If trends from the most recent months continue into the current month of July, I will have to paint Pennsylvania as pink next month and Georgia as a shade darker blue, same color as Florida has already been metamorphosed into. Imagine that there are currently 29 (+DC) more Democratic states than Florida, it's more than a tad surreal.


How I chose to shade each state:

Within 50 PP (percentage points): Toss up
50-99: 30%
100-149: 40%
150-199: 50%
200-249: 60%
250-299: 70%
300-349: 80%
350-> 90%

[eric82oslo]

I highly doubt that VA is a tossup while IA is dem-leaning...

I have no clue what's going on in Virginia - together with Florida, it's clearly one of the states where Trump's numbers are holding up the best so far. When it comes to Iowa however, they will be hardly hit by the trade war in general and the near embargo of agricultural products starting to be implemented by China more specifically, and some Iowa farmers might have started to feel that already - though it's too early to say if the Morning Consult numbers are already reflecting that reality.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I highly doubt that VA is a tossup while IA is dem-leaning...

I have no clue what's going on in Virginia - together with Florida, it's clearly one of the states where Trump's numbers are holding up the best so far. When it comes to Iowa however, they will be hardly hit by the trade war in general and the near embargo of agricultural products starting to be implemented by China more specifically, and some Iowa farmers might have started to feel that already - though it's too early to say if the Morning Consult numbers are already reflecting that reality.

Maybe Jim Mattis is personally holding onto VA for him?

I can guarantee you one thing: IA ain't voting to the right of Texas again.

[eric82oslo]

Link to tracking website: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/


And this is the new map as of June 2018:

Dem: 246
Rep: 224
Toss up: 68


In other words, still too close to call for a generic Democrat to claim victory over Trump this far ahead of the 2020 election, although for every month which passes things are starting to look bleaker for the incumbent.

At this point as of June 2018, Virginia is the tipping point state, while Ohio is the closest state.


How I chose to shade each state:

Within 50 PP (percentage points): Toss up
50-99: 30%
100-149: 40%
150-199: 50%
200-249: 60%
250-299: 70%
300-349: 80%
350-> 90%

Another month has passed by and Morning Consult has updated their numbers adding one more month, the 19th so far, for July 2018.

Here are the new revised aggregated numbers for every state:

1. Hawaii: -509

2. Massachusetts: -480
3. Vermont: -467

4. Maryland: -412

5. California: -366

6. Rhode Island: -345
7. Washington: -333

8. Connecticut: -298
9. Oregon: -289
10. Illinois: -284
11. New York: -261

11. New Jersey: -246
13. Minnesota: -237
14. New Hampshire: -201

15. Colorado: -189
16. Delaware: -188
17. Wisconsin: -182
18. Michigan: -160

19. Maine: -121
20. New Mexico: -118
21. Iowa: -104

22. Pennsylvania: -53

23. Virginia: -37 (tipping point)
24. Nevada: -29
25. Ohio: -13


26. Arizona: +43

27. North Carolina: +61
28. Utah: +98

29. Georgia: +101
30. Florida: +105
31. Missouri: +126
31. Indiana: +126

33. Nebraska: +157
34. North Dakota: +171
35. Texas: +172
35. Kansas: +172
37. Montana: +173

38. South Carolina: +231

39. South Dakota: +260
40. Alaska: +269
41. Arkansas: +292

42. Idaho: +307
43. Kentucky: +312
44. Tennessee: +319

45. Oklahoma: +351
46. Mississippi: +371

47. Louisiana: +407

48. West Virginia: +460

49. Alabama: +500

50. Wyoming: +599


New of this month is that Utah is now not only more critical to Trump than Florida, but even more than the state of Georgia. Some kind of Evan McMullin/Mitt Romney/Mia Love ticket is looking every month a little stronger for Utah.

This month's map (only slight changes from last month):

Dem: 266 (+20)
Rep (Trump/Pence): 224 (no change)
Toss-up: 48 (-20)

The new this month is that Pennsylvania has moved from toss up to ever so slightly lean Democratic, which means that with this current map, the Democratic ticket has already amassed 266 of the 270 EVs they'll need to win. Even better for the Democrats, 3 of the 4 remaining toss up states are leaning Democratic, while only Arizona is leaning towards Trump.

Other significant changes include Iowa going from lean (40%) to likely (50%) Democratic and that Georgia has shifted from lean to likely Republican.

Virginia remains the tipping point state, with Nevada and Pennsylvania being the next most likely options.

Trump still remains an underdog to win reelection, yet with such a close map he probably has a 45% chance to win at this point.

[eric82oslo]

What, is this map a lazy throwback to the last Republican President running for re-election? If Virginia is the tipping point state in 2020, Trump is beyond doomed. Fortunately for him, it won’t be.

Trump even has a 20% approval rating in D.C. according to this last Morning Consult poll. I would have expected him to have no more than 7-8% there honestly.

The reason for a lot of reversion to the mean (although there are many examples of the opposite too like Utah, Florida, Arizona and even Maine) could be that instead of governing like a disrupter from the center, having previously been supporting Democrats, Trump has almost without exceptions (although there are a couple like the trade wars), governed like a very conservative Republican. Also his trade wars are likely to hurt his sweet spot states the most, including many in the Midwest and the rust belt. Most countries like EU and China have specifically targeted products from Trump states, like corn from Iowa, Harley Davidsons from Wisconsin, bourbon whiskey from Kentucky and so on.

Also the top 5 and bottom 5 states when it comes to his drop in approval from his first two months in office (January-February 2017) till the last two months of the poll (June-July 2018):

1. New York: -26
2. Illinois: -25,5
3. Utah: -25
4. New Mexico: -23,5
5. Washington: -21,5
(also interesting...the toss up state of...
6. Nevada: -20,5)

46. Maryland: -6,5 (already started out strongly hating him)
47. Mississippi: -6,5
48. West Virginia: -6
49. Alabama: -5,5
50. South Dakota: -5 (might have been simply a polling blip as none of its neighbour states are showing such a small drop in support)

Of the top 7 states with the strongest drop, all but two are located in the west. Interestingly enough though, Arizona and California are not among them, although they've both dropped more than the national average as well. In other words, Trump is struggling more than ever in the west, while still keeping most of his popularity in at least half of the Southern states, with a couple of major exceptions like Kentucky and Oklahoma where he's fallen more than the average. His fall in states like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina has been close to or at the national average, although he started out very popular in Florida as we all know by now.

[Sirius_]

How is VA a toss up in this map? Are their minds stuck in the last decade?

[eric82oslo]

How is VA a toss up in this map? Are their minds stuck in the last decade?

Virginia has never been worse than -11 in any single month, and during the last 3 months their disapproval has only ranged between -4 and -6. For the first six months of his presidency, they actually gave him a positive approval. Two months (February and May '17) they gave him a +10 approval. Virginians average approval of Trump so far this year has been -6, although for his entire 19 months in office, it's only been -2. If Virginians don't improve their views on the president in the next 2-3 months however, it will become lean Democratic just like happened with Pennsylvania this month. You might still wonder why they're still not more negative. One reason might be that almost no other state has more millionaires than Virginia, so few other states have benefited more directly on Republicans' huge tax break for the rich. Even Mark Warner was barely reelected in 2014, so maybe the state actually is reverting somewhat to the mean. Too early to say yet I guess. I don't expect Virginia to be a toss up two years from now, and perhaps not the tipping point state either. After all, it's really close between 4 states, including Ohio, when it comes to tipping point status, and another 5 states are fairly close as well.

Virginia's -6 in July was the same as for Iowa, 5 percentage points lower approval than Ohio and Utah, 6 pp lower than Arizona and North Carolina and 10 pp lower than Florida and Georgia, so it's not really as lopsided as you might think. 10% more Democratic than Florida, still sounds quite Democratic to me. Too early to freak out when there's still more than two years till election day.

The difference up to Pennsylvania is only 16 pp. Divided on 18 months of sampling, that means the average monthly difference between the two states is less than 1 pp net approval. A little bit of poor sampling could have prevented Pennsylvania from becoming the tipping point state at this point instead.

Also notice that it's not really Virginia which has moved in a Republican direction, it's rather the entire Midwest, including Ohio, which has moved in a strongly anti-Trump direction, although the shift has been even more pronounced in western states. Even Virginia's northern neighbour Maryland, has not shifted hard against Trump, in fact its among the states that have shifted the least.

[IceSpear]

Hmm, what do I trust more...a Morning Consult poll, or trends, actual election results, plus a hefty dose of common sense?

It's a hard choice, but I think I'll go with the latter.

[Grassroots]

A bit interested in that number in Nevada...

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  This is very 2012.  The 2018 House polling is also following 2012 more than 2016 if you break it down by individual races.

[pbrower2a]

I see a problem with aggregated results -- that they would overestimate the chances of someone who had relatively high approval early and lost it steadily. Just think of the results for Carter in 1980 (late polling would be trivialized), suggesting at the least that he would not lose in a landslide -- or those for Dubya that would include approvals for him  immediately after 9/11 that suggest a blowout re-election instead of the close win that he got as his support faded to mediocrity.

Politicians are elected or rejected in the here-and-now of the election on conditions then in existence. Maybe we can use polls to predict competence. OK, things would get better with Reagan after he took measures that brought short-term pain and near-term improvement... but that is not how I see Trump.

Politicians win or lose elections to no small extent due to the conditions of the time.  President Trump needs major changes in the basic reality of the political realities to have a chance of winning.   

[Sadader]

20. New Mexico: -94
20. Iowa: -94

Flashbacks to 2004 anyone? RIP the ascendant IA NM soul bond everyone assumed would hold.