Nevada

[christian peralta]

Can trump manage to flip Nevada

Discuss

[Da2017]

Harris would make it harder. Someone like Warren could make it easier.

[TML]

The only way he can do so is if he somehow backs off his anti-Hispanic/immigration rhetoric. Exit polls from the last four elections indicated that the last time Republicans won Nevada, their candidate won close to 40% of the Hispanic vote there, whereas all subsequent Republican candidates couldn't even reach 30% among this group.

[Greedo punched first]

The only way he can do so is if he somehow backs off his anti-Hispanic/immigration rhetoric. Exit polls from the last four elections indicated that the last time Republicans won Nevada, their candidate won close to 40% of the Hispanic vote there, whereas all subsequent Republican candidates couldn't even reach 30% among this group.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's possible if Trump not just gets reelected and energizes the GOP base, but the Dem candidate is very uninspiring. Terry McAuliffe for example. I don't think he has to do a lot better with Hispanics than in 2016 given he outperformed Romney '12.

[DabbingSanta]

The only way he can do so is if he somehow backs off his anti-Hispanic/immigration rhetoric. Exit polls from the last four elections indicated that the last time Republicans won Nevada, their candidate won close to 40% of the Hispanic vote there, whereas all subsequent Republican candidates couldn't even reach 30% among this group.

Yes, and I doubt he's going to perform well. Nevada is actually pretty hard core conservative outside Reno and Vegas, but it's also extremely rural. I guess the same can be said about many states. A Democrat could carry the state by winning Clark County by 12+ points, and performing well / almost winning in Washoe. Trump would need to gain some support among suburban whites, and chip into the hispanic vote to have a chance.

[IceSpear]

The only way he can do so is if he somehow backs off his anti-Hispanic/immigration rhetoric. Exit polls from the last four elections indicated that the last time Republicans won Nevada, their candidate won close to 40% of the Hispanic vote there, whereas all subsequent Republican candidates couldn't even reach 30% among this group.

Yes, and I doubt he's going to perform well. Nevada is actually pretty hard core conservative outside Reno and Vegas, but it's also extremely rural. I guess the same can be said about many states. A Democrat could carry the state by winning Clark County by 12+ points, and performing well / almost winning in Washoe. Trump would need to gain some support among suburban whites, and chip into the hispanic vote to have a chance.

CCM won by 2.5 even while losing Washoe narrowly and winning Clark by 11. Even more telling, Heller only won by 1 point despite winning Washoe by double digits and losing Clark by 9. It seems like Democrats winning Clark by double digits basically closes any path to victory for a Republican irrespective of Washoe and the balance of the state, especially now due to its rapid population growth. In fact, even if you knock Hillary's Clark margin down to single digits and give Trump Washoe, she still pulls out a win by the skin of her teeth. I wish Unbeatable Titan Dirty Daddy Dean Heller luck in this task, considering he barely accomplished it against the corrupt Shelley Berkley.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, but it wouldn't matter, that much due to the fact CO and VA and WI will seal the deal for Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

The only way he can do so is if he somehow backs off his anti-Hispanic/immigration rhetoric. Exit polls from the last four elections indicated that the last time Republicans won Nevada, their candidate won close to 40% of the Hispanic vote there, whereas all subsequent Republican candidates couldn't even reach 30% among this group.

Yes, and I doubt he's going to perform well. Nevada is actually pretty hard core conservative outside Reno and Vegas, but it's also extremely rural. I guess the same can be said about many states. A Democrat could carry the state by winning Clark County by 12+ points, and performing well / almost winning in Washoe. Trump would need to gain some support among suburban whites, and chip into the Hispanic vote to have a chance.

The population of Nevada is heavily concentrated in Clark (Greater Las Vegas), Washoe (Reno-Sparks), and Carson City. Outside those cities, Nevada is ultra-conservative (or usually is) as ranch country and mining areas.

Nevada is less rural in its overall population than some cities well known for their giant cities and suburbs -- Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. It may be surprising, but the most 'urban' state in America is Utah -- because Utah has little rural population, as most of it is unsuited for farming (mountains, range-land, and desert) .  The only positive for Trump in Nevada is that it is low in educational achievement, which may have brought the state close to going for Trump in 2016.

Note also that polling is difficult. Many Nevadans do not have landline phones. Pollsters that reject cell phone-users as responders may be mi9ssing a younger, more-heavily Hispanic population.   

[Xing]

I'll spare you all my sarcasm this time. The fact is, if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, the only path to victory is very low turnout among Democrats or a blowout national win for Republicans. Clinton got blown out of the water in rural Nevada and got a very lackluster showing in Clark, and still won by 2.5%. CCM even lost Washoe and managed to win by a similar margin. As long as Democrats win Clark by about 10% and keep Washoe relatively close, Republicans won't win Nevada.

I like how people think Trump will do better in Nevada in 2020, when if anything, he's more likely to lose support in the rural areas than to do better in Clark/Washoe. Though I suspect that as long as High Quality Nevada Polls™ continue to show close races, people will insist that Nevada's a Toss-Up, ignoring the consistently poor accuracy of Nevada polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, this is the one state that could very well flip, next time around

[cvparty]

I'll spare you all my sarcasm this time. The fact is, if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, the only path to victory is very low turnout among Democrats or a blowout national win for Republicans. Clinton got blown out of the water in rural Nevada and got a very lackluster showing in Clark, and still won by 2.5%. CCM even lost Washoe and managed to win by a similar margin. As long as Democrats win Clark by about 10% and keep Washoe relatively close, Republicans won't win Nevada.

I like how people think Trump will do better in Nevada in 2020, when if anything, he's more likely to lose support in the rural areas than to do better in Clark/Washoe. Though I suspect that as long as High Quality Nevada Polls™ continue to show close races, people will insist that Nevada's a Toss-Up, ignoring the consistently poor accuracy of Nevada polls.

didn't trump do this tho?

[Tintrlvr]

I'll spare you all my sarcasm this time. The fact is, if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, the only path to victory is very low turnout among Democrats or a blowout national win for Republicans. Clinton got blown out of the water in rural Nevada and got a very lackluster showing in Clark, and still won by 2.5%. CCM even lost Washoe and managed to win by a similar margin. As long as Democrats win Clark by about 10% and keep Washoe relatively close, Republicans won't win Nevada.

I like how people think Trump will do better in Nevada in 2020, when if anything, he's more likely to lose support in the rural areas than to do better in Clark/Washoe. Though I suspect that as long as High Quality Nevada Polls™ continue to show close races, people will insist that Nevada's a Toss-Up, ignoring the consistently poor accuracy of Nevada polls.

didn't trump do this tho?

Debatably, but, regardless, improving very marginally from Romney's extraordinary nadir is not "doing better" in the sense that is meant.

[Politician]

Of course, Trump could drop Pence and pick Dean Heller as his running mate.

[libertpaulian]

I'll spare you all my sarcasm this time. The fact is, if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, the only path to victory is very low turnout among Democrats or a blowout national win for Republicans. Clinton got blown out of the water in rural Nevada and got a very lackluster showing in Clark, and still won by 2.5%. CCM even lost Washoe and managed to win by a similar margin. As long as Democrats win Clark by about 10% and keep Washoe relatively close, Republicans won't win Nevada.

I like how people think Trump will do better in Nevada in 2020, when if anything, he's more likely to lose support in the rural areas than to do better in Clark/Washoe. Though I suspect that as long as High Quality Nevada Polls™ continue to show close races, people will insist that Nevada's a Toss-Up, ignoring the consistently poor accuracy of Nevada polls.

didn't trump do this tho?

Debatably, but, regardless, improving very marginally from Romney's extraordinary nadir is not "doing better" in the sense that is meant.

Not to mention his Latino numbers are higher mostly because of his improvement with Cubans compared to Romney's and McCain's numbers (part of why Trump won Florida).

[krazen1211]

Voter registration in Nevada is moving heavily towards the GOP.

[Lord Admirale]

Voter registration in Nevada is moving heavily towards the GOP.

Nevada is also majority-minority, and Trump is pissing off Latinos.

[Politician]

Voter registration in Nevada is moving heavily towards the GOP.

[citation needed]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can win 273 or 279 with or without NV, due to CO and Va and WI staying on the Democratic side.

[UncleSam]

Of course he can, it was a 2 point state in 2016 and Hillary was strong with Hispanic voters and out West in general. He would win Nevada in plenty of matchups if his approval is decent. If it’s not he won’t.

[ON Progressive]

I'll spare you all my sarcasm this time. The fact is, if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, the only path to victory is very low turnout among Democrats or a blowout national win for Republicans. Clinton got blown out of the water in rural Nevada and got a very lackluster showing in Clark, and still won by 2.5%. CCM even lost Washoe and managed to win by a similar margin. As long as Democrats win Clark by about 10% and keep Washoe relatively close, Republicans won't win Nevada.

I like how people think Trump will do better in Nevada in 2020, when if anything, he's more likely to lose support in the rural areas than to do better in Clark/Washoe. Though I suspect that as long as High Quality Nevada Polls™ continue to show close races, people will insist that Nevada's a Toss-Up, ignoring the consistently poor accuracy of Nevada polls.

didn't trump do this tho?

Debatably, but, regardless, improving very marginally from Romney's extraordinary nadir is not "doing better" in the sense that is meant.

Not to mention his Latino numbers are higher mostly because of his improvement with Cubans compared to Romney's and McCain's numbers (part of why Trump won Florida).

He actually did worse with Cubans than Romney and McCain. If you don't believe me, look at some of these Cuban majority State House seats in FL:
HD 115 (53% Cuban) went from 50-49 Romney to 54-43 Clinton
HD 103 (56% Cuban) went from 55-45 Obama to 59-39 Clinton
HD 111 (72% Cuban) went from 52-48 Romney to 52-46 Clinton
HD 114 (60% Cuban) went from 50-49 Obama to 55-42 Clinton
HD 118 (52% Cuban) went from 51-48 Obama to 55-42 Clinton

The fact of the matter is, the exit poll is wrong about Trump's performance with Hispanics/Latinos. Latino Decisions did a post-election poll of Hispanics/Latinos, and found she won them 79-18. The PDF also has precinct data which shows the exit polls being off: http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/6514/7880/5462/PostElection2016.pdf

[krazen1211]

Voter registration in Nevada is moving heavily towards the GOP.

Nevada is also majority-minority, and Trump is pissing off Latinos.

Nah, I don't think so. Trump is strong with Nevada Hispanics and extremely strong with the white vote.

[krazen1211]

Voter registration in Nevada is moving heavily towards the GOP.

[citation needed]

Then and now.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4587

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5564

[ON Progressive]

Voter registration in Nevada is moving heavily towards the GOP.

Nevada is also majority-minority, and Trump is pissing off Latinos.

Nah, I don't think so. Trump is strong with Nevada Hispanics and extremely strong with the white vote.

He lost Nevada Hispanics by 65% LMAO.

[UncleSam]

I'll spare you all my sarcasm this time. The fact is, if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, the only path to victory is very low turnout among Democrats or a blowout national win for Republicans. Clinton got blown out of the water in rural Nevada and got a very lackluster showing in Clark, and still won by 2.5%. CCM even lost Washoe and managed to win by a similar margin. As long as Democrats win Clark by about 10% and keep Washoe relatively close, Republicans won't win Nevada.

I like how people think Trump will do better in Nevada in 2020, when if anything, he's more likely to lose support in the rural areas than to do better in Clark/Washoe. Though I suspect that as long as High Quality Nevada Polls™ continue to show close races, people will insist that Nevada's a Toss-Up, ignoring the consistently poor accuracy of Nevada polls.

didn't trump do this tho?

Debatably, but, regardless, improving very marginally from Romney's extraordinary nadir is not "doing better" in the sense that is meant.

Not to mention his Latino numbers are higher mostly because of his improvement with Cubans compared to Romney's and McCain's numbers (part of why Trump won Florida).

He actually did worse with Cubans than Romney and McCain. If you don't believe me, look at some of these Cuban majority State House seats in FL:
HD 115 (53% Cuban) went from 50-49 Romney to 54-43 Clinton
HD 103 (56% Cuban) went from 55-45 Obama to 59-39 Clinton
HD 111 (72% Cuban) went from 52-48 Romney to 52-46 Clinton
HD 114 (60% Cuban) went from 50-49 Obama to 55-42 Clinton
HD 118 (52% Cuban) went from 51-48 Obama to 55-42 Clinton

The fact of the matter is, the exit poll is wrong about Trump's performance with Hispanics/Latinos. Latino Decisions did a post-election poll of Hispanics/Latinos, and found she won them 79-18. The PDF also has precinct data which shows the exit polls being off: http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/6514/7880/5462/PostElection2016.pdf

Latino Decisions is a Democratic think tank dedicated to Latino outreach for the Democratic Party. Their pre-election polls had Hillary winning the two party Hispanic vote almost 85-15.

Their numbers are not really believable in comparison to national exit polls, or to, you know, the actual results. There’s no way in hell Hillary won Latino voters by 70 points and did as badly as she did in a Florida and Nevada (not to say she did badly, but that she would’ve done a lot better if that were the real margin).