In what Southern city proper are White voters the most Democratic?

[Del Tachi]

Throwing out the non-"Southern" metroes in Texas and South Florida, in what Deep South city are White voters the most Democratic? 

I'm thinking the two best candidates are Atlanta or New Orleans.  I'll give the edge to New Orleans just because the city's White population is more dominated by working-class ethic Whites than in Atlanta.  Are there any estimates of this?  Would be interesting to see the numbers.

EDIT:  Apparently Hillary Clinton got 58% of the White vote in Orleans Parish (New Orleans is a combined city-parish) in 2016.  Did she do better with Whites in Atlanta?  Nashville?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Clinton narrowly lost Fulton County Whites, although that's mostly due to the conservative suburbs in the north end of the county. I'm not sure what percentage of Atlanta city proper Whites voted Democrat. Davidson County/Nashville White vote was split nearly exactly in half Republican/Democrat in 2016.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Maybe Miami? The Cubans are the main republicans there. I can see the whites being liberal. Also Asheville, NC and Austin, TX

[Sol]

Durham and Asheville are worth looking into as well.

If you just want municipalities with high Democratic white votes, I'd imagine some of the White DeKalb County places like Druid Hills, Decatur would be strong contenders. As would Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Charlottesville, Black Mountain, etc.

[Mr. Illini]

First thought is Atlanta, though I don't have numbers to back it up

[Sol]

First thought is Atlanta, though I don't have numbers to back it up

Well, Atlanta has Trump voting precincts, which isn't the case in Durham, for example.

[Tekken_Guy]

Durham.

[Del Tachi]

Places like Durham, Asheville, Chapel Hill, Decatur or Druid Hills aren't really "cities" though.

I was thinking more along the lines of the anchor cities of the big, Deep South metores which are pretty-much limited to Atlanta, Birmingham, New Orleans, Nashville, Memphis, Charlotte, New Orleans and Houston.

So I think it's an Atlanta/New Orleans race.  New Orleans is at 58.5%; are Atlanta whites more Democratic than that?

[Sol]

Places like Durham, Asheville, Chapel Hill, Decatur or Druid Hills aren't really "cities" though.

I was thinking more along the lines of the anchor cities of the big, Deep South metores which are pretty-much limited to Atlanta, Birmingham, New Orleans, Nashville, Memphis, Charlotte, New Orleans and Houston.

So I think it's an Atlanta/New Orleans race.  New Orleans is at 58.5%; are Atlanta whites more Democratic than that?

Well, if you artificially define the word city to exclude places like Durham and Asheville, which are pretty quintessential small cities, you'll of course be narrowed down to Atlanta and New Orleans. You'll notice I set Carrboro, Druid Hills, and Decatur off as I wasn't sure if they fit in the definition.

If you want to know if Atlanta or New Orleans whites are more Democratic, ask that.

[TDAS04]

Did Hillary win the white vote in Raleigh?

[Del Tachi]

Places like Durham, Asheville, Chapel Hill, Decatur or Druid Hills aren't really "cities" though.

I was thinking more along the lines of the anchor cities of the big, Deep South metores which are pretty-much limited to Atlanta, Birmingham, New Orleans, Nashville, Memphis, Charlotte, New Orleans and Houston.

So I think it's an Atlanta/New Orleans race.  New Orleans is at 58.5%; are Atlanta whites more Democratic than that?

Well, if you artificially define the word city to exclude places like Durham and Asheville, which are pretty quintessential small cities, you'll of course be narrowed down to Atlanta and New Orleans. You'll notice I set Carrboro, Druid Hills, and Decatur off as I wasn't sure if they fit in the definition.

If you want to know if Atlanta or New Orleans whites are more Democratic, ask that.

I pretty much did if you read OP.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm sure Atlanta bests New Orleans.

While Trump did win a few Atlanta precincts, Hillary was still winning white precincts in Buckhead by upwards of 30 to 40 points, and the uber white liberal precincts by 60, 70, 80 points.

The best I can do is provide the interactive map of the election and the mayoral run-off, I presume Mary Norwood was winning most of the white precincts, though Keisha Bottoms probably won some of them on the East side

https://www.myajc.com/atlanta-neighborhood-2016-presidential-election-results-map/

https://www.myajc.com/news/atlanta-mayoral-runoff-election-2017-precinct-results-map/nnKzoJYBcvkd4E5Hit38CM/

[Dr. MB]

I'd guess Athens, Georgia.

[Mr. Smith]

Richmond, Virginia

[Adam Griffin]

It's almost certainly Atlanta. I don't have the 2016 figures, but in 2008, Obama definitely cleared 60% (maybe even 70%) among whites in ATL proper.

-Atlanta

No way he won Atlanta whites:



Even if you assume black turnout was 100% of VAP and Obama won 100% of the black vote in 2008 + assume that Latino/Asian turnout was 100% of VAP and Obama won 70% of them, then Obama would have won 61% of whites.

In reality, Latino/Asian turnout was likely 1/3 of its VAP and Obama probably won around 96% of the black vote. That'd mean Obama won 70% of ATL whites in 2008; probably closer to 65% in 2012.

It's worth noting that whites in Fulton County - the northern half of which mostly includes heavily white areas that come closer to voting for the GOP in numbers like the outer suburbs do, and has very high turnout - was 42% Obama in 2008 and 37% Obama in 2012. Basically, whites in the non-ATL portions of Fulton vote 70-80% R; the whites in ATL are 60-70% D and skew the numbers/hide that reality.

[SaneDemocrat]

Baltimore seems possiBle

[libertpaulian]

I'd wager Atlanta and Raleigh.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

Accent/Dialect-wise as well as historically, it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

Accent/Dialect-wise as well as historically, it is.

[Young Conservative]

Definitely NOT Nashville.

The actual city of Atlanta is probably an answer for a big city. Durham is obvious. I would also throw New Orleans and Charlottesville in there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

Accent/Dialect-wise as well as historically, it is.

Mhmmm. The South begins between Richmond and Raleigh. DC is objectively Northeastern, and there cannot be parts of the North south of parts of the South. Besides, the Northeast is absurdly tiny if it begins in PA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

Accent/Dialect-wise as well as historically, it is.

Mhmmm. The South begins between Richmond and Raleigh. DC is objectively Northeastern, and there cannot be parts of the North south of parts of the South. Besides, the Northeast is absurdly tiny if it begins in PA.

Virginia is not Southern? lol

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

Accent/Dialect-wise as well as historically, it is.

Mhmmm. The South begins between Richmond and Raleigh. DC is objectively Northeastern, and there cannot be parts of the North south of parts of the South. Besides, the Northeast is absurdly tiny if it begins in PA.

Virginia is not Southern? lol

Depends where. I think this is the line:

[Sol]

Baltimore seems possiBle

Maryland is not South.

Accent/Dialect-wise as well as historically, it is.

Mhmmm. The South begins between Richmond and Raleigh. DC is objectively Northeastern, and there cannot be parts of the North south of parts of the South. Besides, the Northeast is absurdly tiny if it begins in PA.

Virginia is not Southern? lol

Depends where. I think this is the line:

looool if you think that rural Northeastern NC isn't Southern

anyway, in the interest of not just drive-by posting, I think that Maryland has quite a few major Southern characteristics--there's large rural and suburban Black populations, Southern accents, a history of plantation slavery and Jim Crow, strong county governments, etc. Baltimore initially seems less 'Southern' because it's an old Rust Belt port, and consequently quite dense with lots of "ethnic" whites. However, if you compare it to New Orleans, its closest Southern cousin, it starts to make more sense. It's also worth noting that the South had very few major cities for a long time, so if say Charleston was larger it'd likely be more like Baltimore.

IMO people are too influenced by Maryland's voting patterns in categorizing it. There's also too much weighting on the cultural traits of wealthy white suburbanites, ignoring rural Marylanders and African-Americans, who are more southern. I think there's also a desire to unite the BosWash corridor, but that doesn't necessarily line up with voting patterns or history.

tl;dr the Mason-Dixon line, at least in Maryland, is an accurate determiner of North vs. South.