FL-Morning Consult: Scott +1

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Politico/AARP poll done by Morning Consult has Scott 40, Nelson 39.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-635358

Scott leads above 50s 44-35. The GCB for the poll is 40 D 38 R, but 41 R 36 D for above 50s.

[Gass3268]

That's a lot of undecideds for two big names.

[KingSweden]

That's a lot of undecideds for two big names.

[Free Bird]

That's a lot of undecideds for two big names.

[heatcharger]

That's a lot of undecideds for two big names.

Morning Consult is not very good, yeah.

[Politician]

That's a lot of undecideds for two big names.

[ON Progressive]

Morning Consult is trash lmao

[Blackacre]

Pretty sure this is the third poll in a row that puts Scott ahead of Nelson

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You know Scott narrowly winning at this point is not super surprising. Not sure why so many people scoff at this.

[Predictor]

Pretty sure this is the third poll in a row that puts Scott ahead of Nelson

Yeah, last two had him ahead by 4 and 3 respectively.

[JG]

You know Scott narrowly winning at this point is not super surprising. Not sure why so many people scoff at this.

It seems to me that Scott is severly underrated by Dems posters here.

[LimoLiberal]

Pretty sure this is the third poll in a row that puts Scott ahead of Nelson

[KingSweden]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

I thought that was supposed to change with all the Puerto Rican’s moving to Florida.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

I thought that was supposed to change with all the Puerto Rican’s moving to Florida.

Florida is such a massive state that it's hard for an influx of such people to really alter things in and of themselves, even if they can move the needle and determine the result of a close race.

[Pandaguineapig]

This race is moving in Scott's direction and Nelson really isn't campaigning and his ads have been pretty bad. Red avatars who dismiss Scott's chances are deluding themselves

[MT Treasurer]

You know Scott narrowly winning at this point is not super surprising. Not sure why so many people scoff at this.

No, I agree that this is hardly a surprising result, but Morning Consult is definitely not a good pollster, and there’s something fishy about their methodology.

This is obviously a competitive race, and Nelson is arguably more vulnerable than some of the Romney state Democrats at this point (which is not really that surprising anyway), but he should still win by an underwhelming margin in a Democratic wave. The trajectory of this race has been pretty hilarious though, seeing as how polling has continually shown improved Republican prospects here even as the national environment kept deteriorating for the GOP and their national prospects have basically eroded.

[ajc0918]

U.S. Senator Connie Mack is also very pleased at the July 2012 poll that found him up 9 points against Nelson.

[IceSpear]

U.S. Senator Connie Mack is also very pleased at the July 2012 poll that found him up 9 points against Nelson.

Not as happy as Sen. Strickland is after his narrow victory in June 2016.

[Donerail]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

I thought that was supposed to change with all the Puerto Rican’s moving to Florida.

Those projections were dramatically overstated.

[Blackacre]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

I thought that was supposed to change with all the Puerto Rican’s moving to Florida.

Those projections were dramatically overstated.

Those projections are also probably difficult to reflect in polling, which makes them an unknown variable until election day

[ON Progressive]

U.S. Senator Connie Mack is also very pleased at the July 2012 poll that found him up 9 points against Nelson.

Not as happy as Sen. Strickland is after his narrow victory in June 2016.

What about Senator Evan Bayh after his double digit victory in August 2016?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Florida always has been and always will be a pure 50-50 state.

I thought that was supposed to change with all the Puerto Rican’s moving to Florida.

Nah. At best, it makes a 1% difference.

[Politician]

Senator Sharron Angle approves of this poll.