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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 09, 2018, 10:57:40 PM »

This would be a very high quality poster, paid for by the government, to track approvals of presidents in detail. Thoughts?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2018, 11:12:51 PM »

There are way too many incentives for corruption in this idea. Absolutely not.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2018, 11:28:18 PM »

There are way too many incentives for corruption in this idea. Absolutely not.
this wouldn't ban other polling places, it would just be one of many good data points.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2018, 11:39:20 PM »

Sweden has something like this.

Their Statistics Office (SCB) does quarterly polls on voting intentions (but are pretty bad, even though they use a big sample).

They underestimated the far-right Sweden Democrats by 4% in 2014, putting them at 9% while they ended up with almost 13%.

For the election in September, they are now polling between 18-26% in various polls (19% in the recent SCB survey).
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2018, 12:48:27 AM »

Sweden has something like this.

Their Statistics Office (SCB) does quarterly polls on voting intentions (but are pretty bad, even though they use a big sample).

They underestimated the far-right Sweden Democrats by 4% in 2014, putting them at 9% while they ended up with almost 13%.

For the election in September, they are now polling between 18-26% in various polls (19% in the recent SCB survey).
is it more accurate then other swedish polls?
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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Ukraine


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E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2018, 01:02:14 AM »

It's not a bad idea, but it might be better to outsource it, maybe give it to a university or non-profit to develop high-quality polling, with language in the bill that prohibit bureaucrats from fudging results.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,197
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2018, 02:29:05 AM »

Sweden has something like this.

Their Statistics Office (SCB) does quarterly polls on voting intentions (but are pretty bad, even though they use a big sample).

They underestimated the far-right Sweden Democrats by 4% in 2014, putting them at 9% while they ended up with almost 13%.

For the election in September, they are now polling between 18-26% in various polls (19% in the recent SCB survey).
is it more accurate then other swedish polls?

Not really.

If we look at all polls from 2010 and 2014 and compare it with the actual election results, then the SCB surveys are quite off on the Social Democrats and Greens for example (overestimating them) and underestimating the center-right/far-right parties.

Other, private pollsters have been better here.

But maybe the Swedish posters can wheigh in more on that ...
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