Could a "Ford Nation" style coalition ever take off in the US?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I.e. multiethnic and suburban conservatives in opposition to hipster/highly educated downtowns?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I.e. multiethnic and suburban conservatives in opposition to hipster/highly educated downtowns?

If the right could get past its history in regards to race and gentrification strains the two halves of the Democratic coalition, I could see it happening.

[Ye We Can]

This is the future after President Cordray. It is inevitable.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

This is the future after President Cordray. It is inevitable.

[DC Al Fine]

I.e. multiethnic and suburban conservatives in opposition to hipster/highly educated downtowns?

If the right could get past its history in regards to race and gentrification strains the two halves of the Democratic coalition, I could see it happening.

I can see it but I think you would need a fairly extended period of Dem dominance and GOP irrelevance. The GOP needs some wilderness time to to change approach and the Dems need time to piss off part of their coalition.

[PoliticalShelter]

isn't this, to some extent, basically the George W Bush coalition in 2004?

[DC Al Fine]

One other thing.

Ford Nation relies heavily on Asians. Toronto has a higher Asian share than every American metro except Honolulu, while having a pretty small Latino population. You might be able to copy the strategy in California (which honestly seems like far and away the best state to elect a Fordish, what with the traffic, housing prices and wokeness), but it would need to be adjusted to fit Hispanics elsewhere.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One other thing.

Ford Nation relies heavily on Asians. Toronto has a higher Asian share than every American metro except Honolulu, while having a pretty small Latino population. You might be able to copy the strategy in California (which honestly seems like far and away the best state to elect a Fordish, what with the traffic, housing prices and wokeness), but it would need to be adjusted to fit Hispanics elsewhere.

Do you think that this strategy would be able to take off in New York?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Michael Lund calls this scenario the “Densitaria Liberaltarian Dems” vs “Posturbia Populiberal GOP” realignment. This would be a racially liberal/progressive electoral future where I can see old-school African-Americans shifting towards the Republican party.

[Del Tachi]

Political institutions in the U.S. (like the electoral college and U.S. Senate) tend to overweight the importance of rural voters and issues.  How could a political system dominated by urban issues succeed then?

[uti2]

isn't this, to some extent, basically the George W Bush coalition in 2004?

The GWB coalition was built on Working Class Evangelicals. In 2004, he padded his numbers with "War on Terror" voters from other Demographics in the environment of post-9/11 paranoia, but even without them, Bush still wins the EC due to his core.

A Neo-Ford Coalition would be more upscale and intellectual and look more like Ford/GHWB's.

[DC Al Fine]

One other thing.

Ford Nation relies heavily on Asians. Toronto has a higher Asian share than every American metro except Honolulu, while having a pretty small Latino population. You might be able to copy the strategy in California (which honestly seems like far and away the best state to elect a Fordish, what with the traffic, housing prices and wokeness), but it would need to be adjusted to fit Hispanics elsewhere.

Do you think that this strategy would be able to take off in New York?

City or State?

isn't this, to some extent, basically the George W Bush coalition in 2004?

The GWB coalition was built on Working Class Evangelicals. In 2004, he padded his numbers with "War on Terror" voters from other Demographics in the environment of post-9/11 paranoia, but even without them, Bush still wins the EC due to his core.

A Neo-Ford Coalition would be more upscale and intellectual and look more like Ford/GHWB's.

We're talking about the Canadian brothers, not the former president.

[PoliticalShelter]

Thinking about it, this "Ford nation" coalition seems to be based more on local/state issues and probably wouldn't work so well as a national strategy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One other thing.

Ford Nation relies heavily on Asians. Toronto has a higher Asian share than every American metro except Honolulu, while having a pretty small Latino population. You might be able to copy the strategy in California (which honestly seems like far and away the best state to elect a Fordish, what with the traffic, housing prices and wokeness), but it would need to be adjusted to fit Hispanics elsewhere.

Do you think that this strategy would be able to take off in New York?

City or State?

both

[RINO Tom]

isn't this, to some extent, basically the George W Bush coalition in 2004?

The GWB coalition was built on Working Class Evangelicals. In 2004, he padded his numbers with "War on Terror" voters from other Demographics in the environment of post-9/11 paranoia, but even without them, Bush still wins the EC due to his core.

A Neo-Ford Coalition would be more upscale and intellectual and look more like Ford/GHWB's.

Is this implying Bush didn't have a fairly upper class coalition in 2000?  Because that's obviously false.

[DC Al Fine]

One other thing.

Ford Nation relies heavily on Asians. Toronto has a higher Asian share than every American metro except Honolulu, while having a pretty small Latino population. You might be able to copy the strategy in California (which honestly seems like far and away the best state to elect a Fordish, what with the traffic, housing prices and wokeness), but it would need to be adjusted to fit Hispanics elsewhere.

Do you think that this strategy would be able to take off in New York?

City or State?

both

State definitely. I'm not as convinced about NYC though. Toronto proper is a lot more suburban than NYC. I'm not sure there are enough suburbanites in the city itself to lead a Ford style backlash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won Democratic states, that he shouldn't have won, as long Sanders isn't the nominee, Dems will won back those states.

[catographer]

"Ford Nation" could've been Kasich's coalition had Sanders been the Dem nominee; would've been a reverse Clinton-Trump swing.

[DC Al Fine]

"Ford Nation" could've been Kasich's coalition had Sanders been the Dem nominee; would've been a reverse Clinton-Trump swing.

Er, Rob Ford is not like John Kasich not was his coalition like Kasich's. Read his bio.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Ford

Does that sound like John Kasich to you?

[catographer]

"Ford Nation" could've been Kasich's coalition had Sanders been the Dem nominee; would've been a reverse Clinton-Trump swing.

Er, Rob Ford is not like John Kasich not was his coalition like Kasich's. Read his bio.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Ford

Does that sound like John Kasich to you?

i didnt mean that ford (rob or doug) is more similar to kasich than trump, but that the coalition of suburban and multiethnic conservatives is closer to what i think kasich would've won versus trump's rural white coalition.

[pikachu]

Maybe? It's tough to see a heavily minority coalition supporting Republicans en masse on the national level anytime soon, and maybe in the past a state party could've differentiated itself enough to make Fordism its 'brand' but we're moving away from that direction.

Anyway, after reading about Rob Ford's views on bike lanes, affordable housing, cars, etc., he just sounds like my local West LA city councilman but significantly more abrasive. At least in LA that kind of thing has a comfortable home in the Democratic Party and has more or less guided the city's development policy outside of the last couple years.

[Galaxie]

Maybe? It's tough to see a heavily minority coalition supporting Republicans en masse on the national level anytime soon, and maybe in the past a state party could've differentiated itself enough to make Fordism its 'brand' but we're moving away from that direction.

Anyway, after reading about Rob Ford's views on bike lanes, affordable housing, cars, etc., he just sounds like my local West LA city councilman but significantly more abrasive. At least in LA that kind of thing has a comfortable home in the Democratic Party and has more or less guided the city's development policy outside of the last couple years.

Could Fordism be a viable route for the CA Republican party, then?

[King of Kensington]

One notable and I think quite important aspect of the Ford phenomenon in Toronto is the lack of a municipal party system.  Most of Fords' strongest areas in municipal elections were areas where the Conservative Party is quite weak.  And when Doug Ford went into provincial politics, Ford Nation votes didn't necessarily translate into Conservative votes since voting explicitly for the Conservatives was a leap too far for many.  Of the 10 provincial constituencies that Doug Ford carried municipally in 2014 in this election, 4 went to the NDP or Liberals and two more were won with less than 40% of the vote, due to vote-splitting between the NDP and Liberals. 

I think the Republican Party is just too toxic among nonwhites, and racial polarization is just too strong in a lot of the US for a Ford-like phenomenon to take off.  I can't imagine "white ethnics" and Blacks voting together for a conservative backlash candidate in a city like NYC, Chicago or Philadelphia.

[King of Kensington]

I'd argue the 2013 NJ election was the successful implementation of a "Ford Nation" strategy led by Chris Christie.

Most paid attention to Christie's huge margin, which was partly a product of weak opposition. But they also won the popular vote for the State Senate. Flip about 3,000 votes statewide and they retake the Senate, potentially establishing a new model for Republicans in suburban states. They ran on a solid platform that won back a lot of the Bush-Reagan coalition while adjusting for modern demographics, picking up a lot of Asian-American and Hispanic votes.

How did Christie do with the state's large Indian American population?

[pikachu]

I'd argue the 2013 NJ election was the successful implementation of a "Ford Nation" strategy led by Chris Christie.

Most paid attention to Christie's huge margin, which was partly a product of weak opposition. But they also won the popular vote for the State Senate. Flip about 3,000 votes statewide and they retake the Senate, potentially establishing a new model for Republicans in suburban states. They ran on a solid platform that won back a lot of the Bush-Reagan coalition while adjusting for modern demographics, picking up a lot of Asian-American and Hispanic votes.

Yeah, Christie's coalition in 2009 and 2013 was interesting - I think he's the only Republican in recent memory to win Middlesex but not Bergen? That being said, we've seen Asians move significantly away from the GOP even since just 2009, and while he sort of had the Fordist coalition in 2013, he didn't have the Fordist substance.