FL-Cherry Communications: Scott +3?

[MT Treasurer]

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http://floridapolitics.com/archives/265855-poll-rick-scott-maintains-edge-over-bill-nelson

[Bidenworth2020]

who?

[Politician]

Given the Chamber of Commerce's involvement, this poll overestimates Scott slightly, this race is Lean D.

[LimoLiberal]

I believe that Scott is clearly leading in the polls right now.

 Excessive moderated posts

[Bidenworth2020]

Scott is clearly leading in the polls right now.

lmao

[UWS]

Not surprising, Scott has a financial/fundraising advantage, which allowed him to broadcast campaign ads early in the race. Great news.

[ajc0918]

Treat this as an internal given the Chamber's endorsement, as well as spending, for Rick Scott

[BBD]

Praying that Bill pulls it out by November. Floridians couldn't possibly be stupid enough to elect Governor Voldemort to another elected office, right???

[BudgieForce]

Treat this as an internal given the Chamber's endorsement, as well as spending, for Rick Scott

Yep.

[Person Man]

Praying that Bill pulls it out by November. Floridians couldn't possibly be stupid enough to elect Governor Voldemort to another elected office, right???

What next? Pence's running mate?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still a Toss-Up.

[junior chįmp]

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lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is getting scary. lean D--->tilt D.

[Free Bird]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

[KingSweden]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

I agree. I’m still skeptical of this poll based on its virtually unknown source and who paid for it.

[Crumpets]

I'd say that poll sounds...



...Cherry picked

[junior chįmp]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

[Pandaguineapig]

Nelson is clearly becoming more senile by the day, if he wins it will be solely because of the national environment

[Florida Man for Crime]

Republicans hoping that Scott can knock off a D incumbent like Nelson is similar to Democrats hoping that e.g. Michelle Nunn could knock off an R incumbent like Perdue in 2014.

i.e. something that could happen under some circumstances, but not likely in the particular year they are running, given the overall national climate that is blowing wind against them.

[LimoLiberal]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 15 points, and it had nothing to do with the "national environment". Roy Blunt was not inundated with scandals, as well.

[junior chįmp]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 15 points, and it had nothing to do with the "national environment". Roy Blunt was not inundated with scandals, as well.

who cares...he still lost. I will grant you that Scott will come closer than anyone before him in defeating Nelson but what does it matter in the end when he still loses.

[LimoLiberal]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 15 points, and it had nothing to do with the "national environment". Roy Blunt was not inundated with scandals, as well.

who cares...he still lost. I will grant you that Scott will come closer than anyone before him in defeating Nelson but what does it matter in the end when he still loses.

As you know, elections are not binary "win/lose" contests. People vote for candidates and each one receives a certain percentage of the vote. And although whether a candidate gets 51% or 70% doesn't effect if they win, that difference is extremely important as it provides the basis for basically all political modeling, analysis, and punditry. Jason Kander shows he can outperform the democratic presidential candidate by 15 points in a horrid national environment for Democrats, even if he lost. Rick Scott, running in a much more evenly divided swing state, can similarly outperform what is likely to be a bad national environment for Republicans and beat the incumbent. It's logically incoherent to say "this candidate still lost while outperforming therefore any outperformance isn't enough to win".

[Free Bird]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Clearly they do care if he's doing this well, you hack.

[junior chįmp]

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Jason Kander outperformed Hillary by 15 points, and it had nothing to do with the "national environment". Roy Blunt was not inundated with scandals, as well.

who cares...he still lost. I will grant you that Scott will come closer than anyone before him in defeating Nelson but what does it matter in the end when he still loses.

As you know, elections are not binary "win/lose" contests. People vote for candidates and each one receives a certain percentage of the vote. And although whether a candidate gets 51% or 70% they win, that difference is extremely important as it provides the basis for basically all political modeling, analysis, and punditry. Jason Kander shows he can outperform the democratic presidential candidate by 15 points in a horrid national environment for Democrats, even if he lost. Rick Scott, running in a much more evenly divided swing state, can similarly outperform what is likely to be a bad national environment for Republicans and beat the incumbent. It's logically incoherent to say "this candidate still lost while outperforming therefore any outperformance isn't enough to win".

Kander came close to winning because he looked better than Roy Blunt....not because he had better ideas or policy positions. Sure...a good candidate on paper will come closer than a totally terrible candidate but they still lose under an unfavorable nation environment. Look at Feingfold choking in WI in 2016 for proof.

Like this result or not, but Scott is, by any account, running a smart campaign.

lol...who wins an election is basically 95% national environment (barring some giant scandal). nobody in Florida cares about Rick Scott's ''smart campaign.'' Had Hillary won in 2016, Scott would of won without running a single ad or hosting a single campaign event

Clearly they do care if he's doing this well, you hack.

Scott isn't doing well at all when the poll is using 2014 demographics (the lowest turnout in midterm history since the 1940s) yet still within the margin of error.

No way I'm a hack here because I readily admit that Nelson would be BTFO under a Hillary presidency

[Young Conservative]

10.3 million in TV ads makes this possible