Day 38: Pennsylvania

[MaC]

Please, pretty please, let this not turn into either a PA-13, 219,332 post argument, or a "Santorum is teh sux0r.  No,  He is teh r0x0r!" thread.  Please if JFK could bless this thread so it doesn't catch either of those diseases, it would be very nice of our Pope.

Bonus points for someone who cangive a good agrument if this state is (or is trending) more libertarian or more populist.

Discuss.

[Gabu]

IT HAS SANTORUM IN IT

[Smash255]

PA leans Dem.  Western portion of the state is fairly populist & has move toward the GOP.  SEPA is what turns the state from a lean GOP or pure toss up to llean Dem.  The Philadelphia burbs are part of the mid atlantic & northeast suburban Democratic shift (aslo seen in the NYC &  D.C burbs).  Use to be stanchly Republican and now are Democratic (on the Pres level), big reason is social issues.  Wester portions of the state have shifted GOP for social reasons as well,  but the shift in SE PA has had a larger impact.  Centra; part of the state has tradionally been GOP and has stayed that way

[WalterMitty]

simply speaking, republicans are losing in the pa because they cant win the philly burbs any longer.

doing better in philly suburbia combined with a continuing republican trend in western pa, would give the gop a strong chance at picking off this 'blue' state/

[MaC]

IT HAS SANTORUM IN IT

U GAY TROL

[danwxman]

In terms of political cultures, this is probably the most diverse state in the country.

One of the things that people may not know is that York county is traditionally blue collar and populist leaning. If you've ever been to York or visited any of the towns in the county, you would be 100% certain this county is a Democratic stronghold. It's very blue-collar and the economy is based around manufacturing and industry. The county was one of the strongest for Johnson in central PA, but hasn't gone Democratic since. Democrats actually had a registration advantage up until the 80's. Interestingly, York really moved towards the Republicans when they started becoming more competitive in the South. And if you've ever been to the backwoods of York county you can easily see the comparisons. Those small manufacturing towns in York county are extremely white, very religious and quite racist in fact. The people even have their own distinct accent, which sounds somewhat southern.

The county is beginning to see a transformation, but one which will not bring it more Democratic...possibly even more Republican (as can be seen from the Bush trend from 2000-2004). Harrisburg and Baltimore exurbs are exploding in the northern and southern parts of the county.

[memphis]

Centre County. home of Penn State went for Bush. This really surprises me because college towns are usually liberal. Why did this happen?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Centre County. home of Penn State went for Bush. This really surprises me because college towns are usually liberal. Why did this happen?

Centre County is more than just that Uni and usually votes Republican; there was a fairly large swing towards Kerry last year.

[AkSaber]

simply speaking, republicans are losing in the pa because they cant win the philly burbs any longer.

doing better in philly suburbia combined with a continuing republican trend in western pa, would give the gop a strong chance at picking off this 'blue' state/

Are the Philly suburbs located Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties?

[TeePee4Prez]

simply speaking, republicans are losing in the pa because they cant win the philly burbs any longer.

doing better in philly suburbia combined with a continuing republican trend in western pa, would give the gop a strong chance at picking off this 'blue' state/

Are the Philly suburbs located Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties?

Add Chester which dramatically shifted towards Kerry from Gore, but still went Bush.  Reason being still a lot of farmland and exurbs.  Also fairly socially liberal in the more suburban parts, but its burbs are very wealthy and greatly benefit from GOP tax cuts.

Mitty, of the people around our age in Montco and Bucks I know, they are VERY liberal.  The GOP will be tumbleweed by 2020 in those counties.  Once the more conservative boomers start moving south, liberal voters will take their place.   

I think Smash255 and danwxman hit the nail on the coffin pretty well here.

I will only say this as information-  Please visit the PA 6/8 and PA 13 threads in Congressional Elections for further details.  Thank you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched; 2020 is a long way off and a lot can change in 15 years.

[Keystone Phil]

Since we're talking strictly Presidential level, we are still a tossup/lean Dem state. The west is moving right as the southeast is moving left. 2008 will prove a lot. As was proven before, the SE does not control whatever happens in PA. If the west turns out, the west can win. We'll have to see if that happens in a few years.

[Kevin]

I belive PA will countiune being a swing state and, Always will be a swing state.

[danwxman]

Centre County. home of Penn State went for Bush. This really surprises me because college towns are usually liberal. Why did this happen?

Centre County is more than just that Uni and usually votes Republican; there was a fairly large swing towards Kerry last year.

The college vote really came out in droves. But actually, there are a few other populist Democratic towns in the county. That is balanced out by the staunchly Republican rural townships and State College suburbs.

[Jake]

Something to add in the Northeast. Luzerne County, the biggest in NEPA, went only 51-48 to Kerry down from 52-44-3 in 2000. Carbon County shifted from 50-46-3 Gore in 2000 to 50-49 Bush. Lackawanna even shifted from 60-36-2 Gore in 2000 to 56-42 Gore in 2004. Columbia County shifted from 55-41-3 Bush in 2000 to 60-40 Bush in 2004. Democrats simply cannot afford to start losing these counties to the Republicans.

[Kevin]

Is Luzerne an industral area?

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

[Keystone Phil]

Also, explain to me how Northampton will "stay" in the Dem column when it went for for Bush with 60% of the vote.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

Wanna know why Philly isn't darker? Because I didn't have a darker red in paint, you jackass. Obviously Delaware county isn't going to be 80% for Democrats.

And if you read my post, I said "I know" conservatism is on the rise in that area, I just don't think it will get too much more conservative before the New York and Philly suburban effects take hold.

You may be right on Centre county. It's a prediction map, Phil, don't have a heart attack.

[danwxman]

Also, explain to me how Northampton will "stay" in the Dem column when it went for for Bush with 60% of the vote.

Northampton   Kerry   50.1%   63,446   
 
Bush   49.0%   62,102   
 
Other   0.9%   1,192   


Oopsies on you. I guess you don't know the Lehigh Valley like you thought you did.
 

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

Wanna know why Philly isn't darker? Becuase I didn't have a darker red in paint, you jackass. Obviously Delaware county isn't going to be 80% for Democrats.

And if you read my post, I said "I know" conservatism is on the rise in that area, I just don't think it will get too much more conservative before the New York and Philly suburban effects take hold.

You may be right on Centre county. It's a prediction map, Phil, don't have a heart attack.

Clarify that Delaware won't be 80% Dem next time, genius.

Believe me, I'm not having a heart attack over your map. I just point out what I think is wrong.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

Wanna know why Philly isn't darker? Becuase I didn't have a darker red in paint, you jackass. Obviously Delaware county isn't going to be 80% for Democrats.

And if you read my post, I said "I know" conservatism is on the rise in that area, I just don't think it will get too much more conservative before the New York and Philly suburban effects take hold.

You may be right on Centre county. It's a prediction map, Phil, don't have a heart attack.

Clarify that Delaware won't be 80% Dem next time, genius.

Believe me, I'm not having a heart attack over your map. I just point out what I think is wrong.

It's not meant to be an exact map. Jesus Christ Almighty, it's just something I whipped up in paint while eating a sandwich.