Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

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Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

Younger people in the Southwest who are leaving the region to go off to university aren't coming back. The remaining younger people don't have the educational levels that would correlate to voting for the Liberals .

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

And in the industrial towns as much as the countryside. Though I wonder whether there's an issue there of popular incumbents defying gravity. In part - that could only explain part.

But I suspect the answer there is that... well... if we consider Liberalism in the SW to have been based on peripheral backlash politics, then the policies and rhetoric of the now late Liberal government, the official ideology of which was literally Woke Neoliberalism by the end...

[ON Progressive]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

Younger people in the Southwest who are leaving the region to go off to university aren't coming back. The remaining younger people don't have the educational levels that would correlate to voting for the Liberals .

Is the Southwest really in decline? Doesn't seem like it from where I live, though I suppose it's possible that my area might be doing fine while the rest of the region is not.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

Younger people in the Southwest who are leaving the region to go off to university aren't coming back. The remaining younger people don't have the educational levels that would correlate to voting for the Liberals .

Is the Southwest really in decline? Doesn't seem like it from where I live, though I suppose it's possible that my area might be doing fine while the rest of the region is not.

You're in Oxford right? We're talking more of Kent and Essex (and to a lesser extent Middlesex and Lambton) or the "deep south" of Ontario.

[ON Progressive]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

Younger people in the Southwest who are leaving the region to go off to university aren't coming back. The remaining younger people don't have the educational levels that would correlate to voting for the Liberals .

Is the Southwest really in decline? Doesn't seem like it from where I live, though I suppose it's possible that my area might be doing fine while the rest of the region is not.

You're in Oxford right? We're talking more of Kent and Essex (and to a lesser extent Elgin, Middlesex and Lambton) or the "deep south" of Ontario.

I am in Oxford. That basically confirms what I was alluding to in the second half of my post. Any theory for why places like Oxford wouldn't have the issues that places like Kent and Essex do?

[Boston Bread]

From the census thread maps at https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=258584.0

The ridings west of London plus Brant are shrinking, the rest of SWON is growing.

[DC Al Fine]

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

And in the industrial towns as much as the countryside. Though I wonder whether there's an issue there of popular incumbents defying gravity. In part - that could only explain part.

But I suspect the answer there is that... well... if we consider Liberalism in the SW to have been based on peripheral backlash politics, then the policies and rhetoric of the now late Liberal government, the official ideology of which was literally Woke Neoliberalism by the end...

That seems like the best explanation.

[lilTommy]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

My poll went:

NDP - 146 (53.3%)
OLP - 69 (25.2%)
PC - 52 (18.9%)
GP - 7 (2.5%)

My poll is a condo; went OLP in 2014, 2015GE and NDP in 2011GE

[ON Progressive]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

My poll went:

NDP - 146 (53.3%)
OLP - 69 (25.2%)
PC - 52 (18.9%)
GP - 7 (2.5%)

My poll is a condo; went OLP in 2014, 2015GE and NDP in 2011GE

Your poll sounds like it's a poll with a lot of NDP/Liberal swing voters. My poll, much to my surprise, went OLP in 2014, and it went CPC by just one vote in 2015. It did, however, vote CPC by 43 points over the NDP in 2011.

[lilTommy]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

My poll went:

NDP - 146 (53.3%)
OLP - 69 (25.2%)
PC - 52 (18.9%)
GP - 7 (2.5%)

My poll is a condo; went OLP in 2014, 2015GE and NDP in 2011GE

Your poll sounds like it's a poll with a lot of NDP/Liberal swing voters. My poll, much to my surprise, went OLP in 2014, and it went CPC by just one vote in 2015. It did, however, vote CPC by 43 points over the NDP in 2011.

Bingo... insert, my entire riding is a progressive swing!; Spadina-Fort York

[Hatman 🍁]

My poll (Ottawa South, poll #1): OLP 609, NDP 500, PC 315

Not bad. The NDP finished third in every corresponding poll in 2014. In 2011, the NDP finished 2nd in my poll and the next apartment over (which went NDP in the 2011 federal election). It seems quite likely the NDP won my apartment complex, but we'll never know

[DL]

My home poll in University Rosedale went:

NDP 865
OLP 221
PC 156
Green 76

How do you like that!!

[Boston Bread]

Barrie-Innisfil home poll:
PC 759
NDP 474
LIB 182
GRN 117

The poll for my former Waterloo apartment has no votes, and I don't know which one I would have voted in, so I can't give that one. It would have certainly gone NDP.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

My friend's precinct in Mississauga-Lakeshore:
PC 1084
Lib 657
NDP 463
Green 66

He voted NDP thinking that would be the correct tactical vote in this riding, which was not correct, but it contributed to denying the Liberals official party status so I'm okay with that. He actually said his true first choice was the Greens. I wonder how many other educated folks in the GTA felt the same but cut NDP or Lib anyway because the Greens are seen as having no chance. Almost certainly not enough to actually win seats in the GTA, but could be a fairly substantial percentage (5-15%), especially after the Liberal collapse. Of course, this kind of thing is pretty much impossible to know...

[Hatman 🍁]

He voted NDP thinking that would be the correct tactical vote in this riding,

Where did he get that idea?

[King of Kensington]

That seat has a "Tory vs. Lib Dem" dynamic.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

He voted NDP thinking that would be the correct tactical vote in this riding,

Where did he get that idea?

Well I know I was egging him on to vote NDP but he said he would decide which anti-Ford vote had the best chance for himself, so I figured for sure he would vote Liberal. I was actually quite surprised to learn he had voted NDP. Not all people are political obsessives like us, so when he saw the NDP pull neck-and-neck with the PCs province-wide, it would not have been unreasonable for him to think that the NDP was the logical tactical vote, not taking into account the nuances of his individual riding. He also until the last redistribution was in Mississauga-Erindale, which is not quite the same profile as Mississauga-Lakeshore and the NDP did come in 2nd in its primary successor ridings. Goes to show the perils of tactical voting and how it can go wrong

[Krago]

The results in my local poll were:

566 Green
305 PC
303 NDP
155 Lib

Try to guess the riding.


Also, I got polled this evening by Mainstreet Research.  At first they asked me how I would vote if a provincial election were held today (!)  Then they asked me if I had heard about Mike Schreiner's comments about forming an 'alliance' with the Liberals to gain official party status at Queen's Park.  The follow-up question was to ask if I would be more or less likely to vote for Mike Schreiner if he did form such an alliance.

I think this was a Green-sponsored poll, but my friend is convinced the Liberals are behind it.

[Boston Bread]

I just noticed that in both my federal-provincial swing maps (last page), Guelph should be one further shade to the left. Fixed now.

[Hatman 🍁]

He voted NDP thinking that would be the correct tactical vote in this riding,

Where did he get that idea?

Well I know I was egging him on to vote NDP but he said he would decide which anti-Ford vote had the best chance for himself, so I figured for sure he would vote Liberal. I was actually quite surprised to learn he had voted NDP. Not all people are political obsessives like us, so when he saw the NDP pull neck-and-neck with the PCs province-wide, it would not have been unreasonable for him to think that the NDP was the logical tactical vote, not taking into account the nuances of his individual riding. He also until the last redistribution was in Mississauga-Erindale, which is not quite the same profile as Mississauga-Lakeshore and the NDP did come in 2nd in its primary successor ridings. Goes to show the perils of tactical voting and how it can go wrong

No, I know. I am quite aware people don't know how to vote tactically. Especially in this election. I was genuinely curious where he might have thought that. I saw some sites that said the NDP was the tactical vote in Ottawa South, so I was wondering if he saw it on some site somewhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

The results in my local poll were:

566 Green
305 PC
303 NDP
155 Lib

Try to guess the riding.


Also, I got polled this evening by Mainstreet Research.  At first they asked me how I would vote if a provincial election were held today (!)  Then they asked me if I had heard about Mike Schreiner's comments about forming an 'alliance' with the Liberals to gain official party status at Queen's Park.  The follow-up question was to ask if I would be more or less likely to vote for Mike Schreiner if he did form such an alliance.

I think this was a Green-sponsored poll, but my friend is convinced the Liberals are behind it.

FWIW Quito Maggi is a Liberal, if that means anything to you.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa South really is a safe Liberal seat isn't it?  It wasn't even close.  It's long been fool's gold for the Tories, maybe it's fool's gold for the NDP too.

[adma]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

Of course, given the present megapolls, "every single poll" doesn't carry the daunting gravity that it used to...

[adma]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

Actually, more Lanark than Carleton--or at least, they share far more geographic frontier.  (But in a sense, the Lanark-Renfrew-Carleton confluence just make up one large region of traditional Scots-inflected Toryism.)

[adma]

The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

I don't think people were ever that preoccupied over whether Pembroke was part of Renfrew County or not--"independent cities" and "separated towns" never having carried the mapping-geographic value in Ontario that they do in, say, Virginia.  (As affirmed by the Canadian census.)

Though I have been finding that younger people tend to read unnecessarily more into said Ontario-style municipal independence/separation--perhaps because the "common geography" of clear political/geographic boundaries (as depicted on road maps and in the formatting of physical municipal directories) has fallen by the wayside in our electronic, GPS-focused age.  Once upon a time, it seems, Ontarians "knew their counties" (particularly when they were depicted in big coloured blocks on official Ontario highway maps in the 60s/70s); now it's like they don't care less...