According to this NYT article from 2014, some states have a majority of their population originally from another state, while some are mostly native residents. How do you think the states would vote if only their native residents voted?
My estimate (for 2016) would be this:
Colorado and Nevada flip Republican because domestic migration (especially from California) is the primary reason they became swing states; ditto for Virginia except with Northeasterners. Florida flips Democratic because young voters there are pretty Democratic (and also more likely to be native residents) and much of the state's Republican strength comes from retirees from other parts of the country.
