2002 without 9/11

[Lamda]

[HillGoose]

I think Enron would have really been the dominant headline and made the Bush administration look bad, causing losses for Republicans.

[Politician]

Colorado: Strickland defeats Allard
Georgia: Cleland defeats Chambliss
Minnesota: Mondale defeats Coleman
Missouri-Special: Carnahan defeats Talent
New Hampshire: Shaheen defeats Sununu
North Carolina: Bowles defeats Dole
South Carolina: Sanders defeats Graham

[NewYorkExpress]

Arkansas: Mark Pryor adds about five points to his victory (D Gain)

Colorado: Tom Strickland beats Wayne Allard 49-48.5 (D Gain)

Georgia goes to a runoff, which Max Cleland wins 51-49 (D Hold)

Louisiana: Landrieu clears 50% in the jungle primary, avoiding a second round. (D Hold)

Minnesota: Paul Wellstone/Walter Mondale wins 52-48 (D Hold)

Missouri (Special) Jean Carnahan defeats Jim Talent 50-49 (D Hold)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen defeats John Sunnunu 51-47 (D Gain)

North Carolina: Erksine Bowles loses to Elizabeth Dole 50-47  (R Hold)

South Dakota: Tim Johnson defeats John Thune 55-44 (D Hold)

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander defeats Bob Clement 50-48 (R Hold)

[dw93]

Democrats retake the House and increase their majority in the Senate due to Enron, a Weak Economy, Bush possibly pushing for an invasion of Iraq, and Bush possibly pushing Social Security reform earlier than 2005.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Arkansas: Mark Pryor adds about five points to his victory (D Gain)

Colorado: Tom Strickland beats Wayne Allard 49-48.5 (D Gain)

Georgia goes to a runoff, which Max Cleland wins 51-49 (D Hold)

Louisiana: Landrieu clears 50% in the jungle primary, avoiding a second round. (D Hold)

Minnesota: Paul Wellstone/Norm Coleman wins 52-48 (D Hold)

Missouri (Special) Jean Carnahan defeats Jim Talent 50-49 (D Hold)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen defeats John Sunnunu 51-47 (D Gain)

North Carolina: Erksine Bowles loses to Elizabeth Dole 50-47  (R Hold)

South Dakota: Tim Johnson defeats John Thune 55-44 (D Hold)

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander defeats Bob Clement 50-48 (R Hold)

I agree with this except I think maybe Allard holds on given the voters' usual tendency not to change their mind in rematches.

[darklordoftech]

Democrats retake the House and increase their majority in the Senate due to Enron, a Weak Economy, Bush possibly pushing for an invasion of Iraq, and Bush possibly pushing Social Security reform earlier than 2005.

Democrats would likely run on "doing what Gore would have done" and "stopping the man who stole the election from enacting his agenda."

[KingSweden]

I’d have to recall what the first 8 months of 2001 were like. Trying to imagine a Bush admin sans 9/11 is pretty hard since it was the fundamental event of his Presidency

[dw93]

Democrats retake the House and increase their majority in the Senate due to Enron, a Weak Economy, Bush possibly pushing for an invasion of Iraq, and Bush possibly pushing Social Security reform earlier than 2005.

Democrats would likely run on "doing what Gore would have done" and "stopping the man who stole the election from enacting his agenda."

Spewing that kind of rhetoric is a good way for them to lose to be honest. If anything, they'd, likely successfully, pin the 2001 recession on Bush (even though it's roots go back before the 2000 election) and somehow tie the Enron Scandal to the 2000 election, as, IRC, Enron was Bush's largest contributors in 2000.

[HillGoose]

Democrats retake the House and increase their majority in the Senate due to Enron, a Weak Economy, Bush possibly pushing for an invasion of Iraq, and Bush possibly pushing Social Security reform earlier than 2005.

Democrats would likely run on "doing what Gore would have done" and "stopping the man who stole the election from enacting his agenda."

Spewing that kind of rhetoric is a good way for them to lose to be honest. If anything, they'd, likely successfully, pin the 2001 recession on Bush (even though it's roots go back before the 2000 election) and somehow tie the Enron Scandal to the 2000 election, as, IRC, Enron was Bush's largest contributors in 2000.

If I remember correctly, Cheney was personal friends with many of the powerful executives at Enron. Without 9/11, I honestly think Cheney would have been off the ticket in 2004. Which is never a good sign for the incumbent party.

I think without 9/11, Enron would have been the "Hurricane Katrina" of the Bush presidency in terms of public opinion. I don't see Bush winning a second term if 9/11 hadn't happened, either.

[dw93]

Democrats retake the House and increase their majority in the Senate due to Enron, a Weak Economy, Bush possibly pushing for an invasion of Iraq, and Bush possibly pushing Social Security reform earlier than 2005.

Democrats would likely run on "doing what Gore would have done" and "stopping the man who stole the election from enacting his agenda."

Spewing that kind of rhetoric is a good way for them to lose to be honest. If anything, they'd, likely successfully, pin the 2001 recession on Bush (even though it's roots go back before the 2000 election) and somehow tie the Enron Scandal to the 2000 election, as, IRC, Enron was Bush's largest contributors in 2000.

If I remember correctly, Cheney was personal friends with many of the powerful executives at Enron. Without 9/11, I honestly think Cheney would have been off the ticket in 2004. Which is never a good sign for the incumbent party.

I think without 9/11, Enron would have been the "Hurricane Katrina" of the Bush presidency in terms of public opinion. I don't see Bush winning a second term if 9/11 hadn't happened, either.

If a newly elected Democratic majority led by Gephardt or Pelosi overreaches the way the Gingrich Congress did after 1994, while Bush pivots to the Center like Clinton did, I think Bush can narrowly be re elected. If none of that happens, and especially if none of that happens and  the recovery from the 2001 recession is as weak as it was in real life, I agree that Bush would lose in 2004.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Bush loses in 2004, what happens in 2006 and 2008?

[dw93]

If Bush loses in 2004, what happens in 2006 and 2008?

GOP gains back one or both houses of Congress in 2006, 2008 depends on when the great recession starts. If it happens after November 2008, incumbent Democrat likely wins, if before, the GOP probably wins.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Bush loses in 2004, what happens in 2006 and 2008?

GOP gains back one or both houses of Congress in 2006, 2008 depends on when the great recession starts. If it happens after November 2008, incumbent Democrat likely wins, if before, the GOP probably wins.

So we are looking at a narrow GOP win then, with no coattails downballot. Assuming the economy goes as OTL.

[HillGoose]

Do you guys think Kerry is still the nominee in 2004 if 9/11 doesn't happen? Somehow I can see it but at the same time not see it. Bob Graham or Dick Gephardt maybe?

[dw93]

Do you guys think Kerry is still the nominee in 2004 if 9/11 doesn't happen? Somehow I can see it but at the same time not see it. Bob Graham or Dick Gephardt maybe?

It's not Kerry. Gephardt, Dean, Biden could possibly throw his hat in the ring in a no 9/11 scenario, Edwards, even Gore if Bush's term goes (or at least is perceived to be) that bad without 9/11.

[darklordoftech]

How much of an issue would the environment (whether it be oil drilling, pollution, tree logging, hunting, or global warming) be in 2002 and 2004? How about stem-cell research and same-sex marriage? Would the 2001 tax cut be an issue in 2002?

[dw93]

How much of an issue would the environment (whether it be oil drilling, pollution, tree logging, hunting, or global warming) be in 2002 and 2004? How about stem-cell research and same-sex marriage? Would the 2001 tax cut be an issue in 2002?

The environment and Stem Cell Research, IMHO, would be bigger issues than they were in real life, Same Sex Marriage is the same, as I still see the GOP pushing the same ballot initiatives as they did in real life 2004, and while I think the 2001 Tax Cut would be an issue in 2002, I think Enron and the overall economy would overshadow it.

[Lechasseur]

I agree with this map except for Colorado which I think the GOP would hold.