Day 37-Oregon

[memphis]

Discuss Oregon. How hard would it be for the Republicans to win here in 2008?

[minionofmidas]

It got talked up as a possible gain for 2004. I never bought it.

Anyways, interesting state. Why is the Upper Willamette Valley so Republican?

[WalterMitty]

It got talked up as a possible gain for 2004. I never bought it.

Anyways, interesting state. Why is the Upper Willamette Valley so Republican?

property rights and gun control

[MaC]

definitely possible for Republicans in 2008.  Bush only lost here in 2000 by about 7,000 votes.

[memphis]

definitely possible for Republicans in 2008.  Bush only lost here in 2000 by about 7,000 votes.

This was because Nader got 5%. Assuming no spolier candidate, I don't think the Republicans stand much of a chance, unless it's a landslide election. This doesn't seem very likely right now, but a lot could change in three years.

[Gabu]

definitely possible for Republicans in 2008.  Bush only lost here in 2000 by about 7,000 votes.

As memphis said, that was more due to Nader than anything.  In 2004 it was back to voting Democratic by a fair margin (a little over 4%).

It's certainly not as much of a long shot for the GOP as, say, New Jersey, but it's still a lean-Democratic state, and I don't see why that would change in the near future.

[MaC]

eh, Nader was a vote-splitter, but not as much as Democrats like to think.  An exit poll showed people who voted for Nader that if he was not running 38% would vote Gore and 25% would vote Bush.  So, Bush does loose a little too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I remember Walter saying it was trending Republican and the Gore state most likely to flip.

[WalterMitty]

I remember Walter saying it was trending Republican and the Gore state most likely to flip.

oregon was trending republican from 88-2000.

the dems bounced back a little in 04.

my oregon fantasies are saner than you dems thinking you have a shot in virginia.

[Smash255]

I remember Walter saying it was trending Republican and the Gore state most likely to flip.

oregon was trending republican from 88-2000.

the dems bounced back a little in 04.

my oregon fantasies are saner than you dems thinking you have a shot in virginia.

for 08 possibly?  but past that I would say Dems have a better chance in VA.  Rural VA has moved a bit more to the right, but its probably nearing its max level for Republicans or at least close reaching their max level for the GOP than NOVA (which is flying to the left) is at reaching its max Dem support.

Oregon is a Dem lean state.  Nader made it a bit closer in 00 than it otherwise would have been.  Also Bush was viewed as more of a social coservtive in 04 than he was in 00, which didn't help him in 04.  The statee leans Dem, and a socially conservative candidate has no chance in the state unless a 3rd party liberal candidate can pick up 5% of the vote or so

[Platypus]

i think the small-l liberal vote is gaining; at a state level this may help the GOP but federally, the Democrats.

[WalterMitty]

there are several possible republican candidates that owuld have an excellent shot at oregon in 08. 

someone like mitt romney would have to be considered favored against any possible democrat in oregon.  agree?

[Smash255]

there are several possible republican candidates that owuld have an excellent shot at oregon in 08. 

someone like mitt romney would have to be considered favored against any possible democrat in oregon.  agree?

I don't think so.  While Romney has a better chance iN oregon than cnadidates like Allen, Santorum, Frist) he still would face an uphill battle in Oregon (which was 6.7 points more Dem than the Natl average).   VA  5.8% more GOP than the Natl average) was actually closer to the national average than Oregon was.   One problem Romney might run into, is in order to be succesful & win a primary he may have to distance himself a bit from being the Govenor of Massachusetts & by distancing himself from MA  (moving in a more conservative direction which he has already done)will hurt himself in OR.  Still a better chance than other Republicans with a good chance at the nomination, but will still most likely lose the state

[memphis]

Oregon reminds me a lot of Minnesota. A large city, Portland/Twin Cities gives Dems great numbers. Similar pattern in a smaller city, Eugene/Duluth. Neither state has voted Republican for President in many years, yet is just out of reach for them. I don't think this is likely to change.

[Alcon]

All right, here's my Oregon analysis.  I'm going to focus on the populated western counties - we all know that eastern Oregon votes heavily Republican, except among the impoverished, who generally vote Democrat.  I've included three counties that are generally considered border counties (Deschutes, Jefferson, and Wasco) and discluded one (Klamath) because it is culturally identical to the eastern part of the state, albeit more populated, and votes similarly.

One of these counties is fairly low-populated, but is in generally similar.  Anyway, I'll get to that later.  Here's my weak categorisation of the included counties:



To read this map, it is important to note that colours are grouped.  Dark blue is with light blue; light orange is with dark orange; dark green is with light green.  The only exceptions are pink and yellow, which are on their own.  The difference between the two are that the light versions voted Republican, while the dark versions voted Democratic.

So, here's how it works:

Blue
Blue counties here generally have a populist tilt to them, but also have a libertarian undertoe.  In Oregon, working-class areas that are economically successful are currently trending Democratic, part in thanks to Portlanders moving to the area, while those that are troubled are moving Republican.

First we have Coos County (Coos Bay), traditionally Democratic but now rather Republican (it's the southernmost coastal county).  This is an ex-manufacturing area with heavy lumber influence.  The area has never been very economically depressed (the poverty rate is a higher than normal but unexceptional 15 percent), but the working class culture there kept it Democratic during the 1980's, and social issues have moved it to the right.  It will probably remain where it is for a while.

The next-lowest blue county in the coast is Lincoln County (Newport).  Lincoln County has traditionally been Dem-leaning and has interestingly moved very little.  There is a mix of a working-class population with populist leans and a growing population of wealthy seaside residents.  And, of course, there are hippies.  As always, Lincoln County should stay near to where it is.

Up next is Tillamook County (Tillamook) - and, yes, it is where the cheese is made.  Tillamook gave a 12-point victory to Michael Dukakis, then a 15 and 17 point victory to Clinton in 1992 and 1996, respectively.  And then - wham - Bush wins narrowly in 2000 and narrowly again in 2004.  This area has a heavy dairy presence, which somehow managed to remain Democratic until 2000, but this area is still strikingly close for a dairy farming area that is not depressed (the poverty rate is actually lower than state average).  Depending on the nominees in 2008, Tillamook may swing either way, although overall it is on a slow Republican trend.

The northwest corner of the state is Clatsop County (Astoria).  Economic decline sent the major city of the county, Astoria, into a slump which it has never totally recovered from.  Now, it has found reasonable success in the tourism and light manufacturing industries.  A mix of blue collar workers, tourism workers, and environmentalists should keep this a narrowly Democratic county for some time to come, since even the workers in this area are not very socially conservative.

To the right of Clatsop County is Columbia County (St. Helens).  I have always heard this area has a deeply working-class background, but that seems strange, considering the rather low poverty rate of 9 percent and a fairly high median household income.  In any case, for whatever reason, this area is fairly populist in voting, and probably will trend slightly Republican, if not flipping.

Over to the east, along the Columbia River, is Hood River County.  This area loved John Kerry, partially because he windsurfed there, and almost sent Bush below 40% after delivering a narrow, below-50% victory to Gore in 2000.  Nader scored 7.5% here in 2000 and 4.3% in 1996, which reflects the pro-environmentalist influence, especially in the heavily Democratic city of Hood River.  This area is fundamentally a mix of rich Portlanders and a working-class population that can barely afford to live in the area as property values increase.  The attention that John Kerry gave the area in 2004 inflated his numbers, and a Republican trend would be unsurprising.  This will be less political than personal, though, and in the long term this area probably will solidify into a Democratic county.

The easternmost blue county is Wasco County (City of The Dalles).  Fundamentally, this is the area where people move because they can no longer afford to live in Portland and Hood River County.  This is a working class area, although with many businesses - including Google - moving to the area, it looks to become increasingly like neighbouring Hood River County was 10-15 years ago.  Then again, the area still has many socially conservative residents (although if more companies like Google move in, that probably won't last) so a better economy could also send the area Republican (it swung hugely to the Republicans between 1996 and 2000).

More colours coming up soon.

[Alcon]

My cat closed the window while I was doing this one.  Oh well.  Anyway, on to Portland and suburbs (yellow and green, respectively).



Yellow
Of course, the most populated and most Democratic county in Oregon is Multnomah County (Portland).  Portland is basically a smaller Seattle.  The only differences politically are that Portland is slightly less wealthy, very slightly less Democratic, and the inner suburbs of Portland are much less wealthy and slightly less Democratic than Seattle's.  Multnomah should stay solidly Democratic.

Green
There are two majority-suburban counties in Oregon (not counting Hood River).  One of them is Democratic, and one of them is Republican.  One of them trended slightly Democratic, and one of them trended slightly Republican.  There are, however, some very important differences.

Washington County (Hillsboro) is an agricultural area that has also seen a large range of high-tech jobs move into the area.  Nike's headquarters are here, and IBM has a significant presence, along with a range of software companies.  Washington County was a Republican stronghold twenty years ago, but has steadily moved left then since, giving John Kerry the highest percentage of any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  As with most libertarian suburbs, I expect that Washington County will trend toward the Democrats in upcoming elections.

Clackamas County (Oregon City), located south of Portland, is more residential, and also contains more exurban farmtowns that are not wealthy but do have commuters.  Kerry strength in the inner suburbs (such as the affluent Lake Oswego) were nullified by a strong Bush presence in the rural areas.  Clackamas County is overall less urban than Washington County, which is a major factor in it being Republican.  Despite a Bush blip in 2004 (a tiny one, in any case), this is likely to trend somewhat Democratically in 2008.

[Alcon]

Next, pink, all of which voted Republican.  This is my "cheap" category.  All of these counties have a good number of differences to note, but all are generally culturally conservative.  I am not necessarily talking Christian conservative, although often I am, but rather the traditionalist sort of culture, oftentimes fairly masculine, that developed in agricultural and especially lumber areas and continues to influence Oregon, especially in these areas.



Pink
Starting at the top, we have Yamhill County (McMinnville).  This is a timber and agricultural area, although somewhat moderated by McMinnville, which - although Republican - head one precinct vote Kerry narrowly.  This could be attributed to commuters to Portland, which make up 20% of Yamhill County's population.

Despite the inclusion of Western Oregon University in Monmouth, Polk County (Dallas) to the south also falls into this category.  This area's Republicanness can be attributed to the lack of the college liberalisation effect - WOU is both a former Christian college and an institution focusing on education degrees, with education majors being the only group to vote Bush other than theologists in a recent survey.

In the central part of the picture (a little bit toward the top, perhaps) is Linn County (Albany).  It pretty much explains why this county is so Republican to say that 40% of manufacturing jobs are provided by the timber industry.  Needless to say, this is a quite socially conservative region.

To the south is Douglas County (Roseburg) has a similar story:  25-30% of the labour force is employed by the timber industry.

The leftmost of the lower line of pink is Curry County (Gold Beach).  Since its formation, Curry County has been Republcan, only going Democratic in clear national landslides.  The area is heavily agricultural, similar to neighbouring Coos County, and like Coos, is also invested in tourism.  Why this area has always been Republican while Coos was traditionally Democratic is, quite honestly, beyond my comprehension.

Right-wing news site WorldNetDaily is located in Josephine County (Grants Pass), which has nothing to do with anything.  Still, this is a timber area, so it is hardly surprising that the area is quite conservative.  The developing tourism area may bring the area below 60% Republican, but it will still be quite solid.

Jackson County (Medford) is interesting.  Medford itself is a major city and voted a striking 59% Bush, actually more Republican than county average.  The only thing keeping this area from being extremely conservative is the city of Ashland and surrounding areas (the narrowly Democratic Talent and the narrowly Republican Phoenix).  Ashland, home to the annual Shakespeare Festival and Southern Oregon University, is actually more Democratic than Portland and almost as Democratic as Seattle, making it the second most Democratic city in the northwest (to my knowledge).

Orange counties upcoming.

[bgwah]

Tillamook cheese = amazing
Tillamook icecream = amazing

I've even been on the factory tour!!



Comon Alcon, you can't say Ashland is the most Democratic city in the NW without giving me the numbers!

[Alcon]

Tillamook cheese = amazing
Tillamook icecream = amazing

I've even been on the factory tour!!



Comon Alcon, you can't say Ashland is the most Democratic city in the NW without giving me the numbers!

God, my luck.

I looked back at the numbers after I saw that Ashland was closer than I originally thought, and curses, I was off...Ashland is second to Seattle.  Kerry got 80.61% in Seattle, and 80.60% in Ashland.  Oh well.

The Ashland numbers are:

Ashland, Jackson County, Oregon
Kerry 10,043
Bush 2,323
Cobb 42
Badnarik 33
Peroutka 19

[bgwah]

Wow, that's amazing. Not that you were wrong, but that Ashland is so liberal! What a sharp contrast to the surrounding areas.

You should make a website to put all your election results on, you've collected a lot.

How'd Eugene and Portland vote?

[Alcon]

Wow, that's amazing. Not that you were wrong, but that Ashland is so liberal! What a sharp contrast to the surrounding areas.

You should make a website to put all your election results on, you've collected a lot.

How'd Eugene and Portland vote?

Hopefully Dave will be putting the results on the Atlas soon.

I don't have Portland yet, although I doubt it's more Democratic than Seattle.  I may have it later today.

Eugene, Lane County, Oregon
Kerry 57,825 (68.24%)
Bush 26,201 (30.92%)
Badnarik 312 (0.37%)
Cobb 250 (0.30%)
Peroutka 151 (0.18%)

[Alcon]

Portland numbers are in.  There are small parts in Washington and Clackamas Counties that actually are significant enough to change this maybe a percentage point, but definitely not toward the Democratic side, so Ashland and Seattle both soundly beat it:

Portland, Multnomah County, Oregon
Kerry 225,119 (76.10%)
Bush 68,227 (23.07%)
Other 2,455 (0.83%)

[Gabu]

eh, Nader was a vote-splitter, but not as much as Democrats like to think.  An exit poll showed people who voted for Nader that if he was not running 38% would vote Gore and 25% would vote Bush.  So, Bush does loose a little too.

I saw an exit poll that said that a little under two-thirds of Nader voters would have otherwise voted for Gore.  Given this contradiction, I don't think that these exit polls are that reliable.

I'm just looking at what Nader stood for.  Given that info, why exactly would someone voting for Nader vote for Bush instead?  I can't see a lot of logic behind doing that.

[Alcon]

eh, Nader was a vote-splitter, but not as much as Democrats like to think.  An exit poll showed people who voted for Nader that if he was not running 38% would vote Gore and 25% would vote Bush.  So, Bush does loose a little too.

I saw an exit poll that said that a little under two-thirds of Nader voters would have otherwise voted for Gore.  Given this contradiction, I don't think that these exit polls are that reliable.

That's not too bad.

Assuming they were pushing voters to actually vote there, 38%-25% would be equatable to 60%-40%, which is not all that under "just two thirds," although certainly it isn't all that close either.

[Gabu]

eh, Nader was a vote-splitter, but not as much as Democrats like to think.  An exit poll showed people who voted for Nader that if he was not running 38% would vote Gore and 25% would vote Bush.  So, Bush does loose a little too.

I saw an exit poll that said that a little under two-thirds of Nader voters would have otherwise voted for Gore.  Given this contradiction, I don't think that these exit polls are that reliable.

That's not too bad.

Assuming they were pushing voters to actually vote there, 38%-25% would be equatable to 60%-40%, which is not all that under "just two thirds," although certainly it isn't all that close either.

They weren't pushing voters to actually vote in the exit poll I looked at; "wouldn't have voted" was an option that they provided.  It was something like 50% for Gore, 20% for Bush, and 30% wouldn't have voted.

After thinking about it, it wasn't "just under two-thirds" and was more along the lines of "a half", but the margin for Gore was nevertheless a lot larger than the one in M&C's exit poll.